Fasten Your Seatbelts; 2024 is Going to be a Bumpy Year!

The new year is starting off much like it ended, with a lot of negative news. The mood in the country seems to be gloomy, and nobody seems enthusiastic about the presidential election which will consume much of the year. I’m not immune to all of the gloom and doom. When I look back on what I wrote about in 2023, it was mostly about the chaos in Congress, foreign wars, and the presidential candidates nobody seems to want. But it is time to shake off the gloom and look beyond the headlines, because 2023 was actually an amazing year.   
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Positives from 2023: Negative and tragic news tend to grab all of the headlines. But if you dig a little deeper, there were so many positive things that occurred in 2023. Here are but a few:

• The CDC and World Health Organization declared an end to the COVID-19 pandemic in May.
• The child mortality rates were the lowest ever recorded.
• For the first time in history, women were allowed to vote in every country that hold elections.
• More people in the world gained access to clean water and electricity than ever before.
• The gender pay gap reached an all-time low.
• Investments in renewable energy have never been higher.
• Advances in mRNA technology, gene editing and artificial intelligence have resulted in medical breakthroughs which bring us closer to curing Alzheimer’s disease, sickle cell disease, several types of cancer, and mitigating malaria.
• Inflation cooled dramatically and the economy didn’t fall into recession.
• Artificial Intelligence went mainstream. This could be a good thing or a bad thing.
• Taylor Swift and Beyoncé brought joy to millions, young and old.
• California ended the year drought free.

​Looking Ahead to 2024:  There will be a lot of ups and downs this year. In ten short months our country will hold another presidential election. For better or for worse this will dominate the news cycle. But there is a lot going on closer to home and across the world that deserves our attention.  In the near-term many of these issues seem downright depressing, but maybe 2024 will surprise us with some positive outcomes. Here are some of the issues that I will be following:

​Statewide: The state of California is facing many challenges. Illegal immigration and homelessness are among the biggest. But the one that I will be watching closely is the massive $68 billion budget deficit facing the state. This is mostly due to severe revenue declines (lower tax collections) in 2022-2023.  Major budget cuts, tapping into the rainy-day fund, and creative financing will all be on the table. Governor Gavin Newsom’s political future will rest on his ability to put the state’s fiscal house in order.

Nationally:
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• Homelessness: This seems to be an intractable problem across many cities and states. We know that the problem arises from the lack of affordable housing, as well as the lack of treatment facilities for those suffering from mental illness and addiction disorders. Billions of dollars are being spent at the state and local levels every year. But it seems to me that most of the money goes to feeding the bureaucracy that has been built up to address the homeliness problem. Hopefully this year we will see some real progress made in overcoming this important societal issue.
• Disruption of Public Meetings:  In many communities across the country public meetings have become very contentious, with individuals threatening officials and using hate speech. Much of this has come during the public comment sections of meetings which allow people to participate virtually. Disruptive behavior from members of the public has increased in recent years as the political divide in our country has widened. The county where I live now requires public comments during meetings to be made in person. Pre-screening of individuals and the text of their comments is probably not far off. Free speech should not be stifled. But disruptive behavior at public meetings and hate speech may result in restrictions placed on this important right. 

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• Federal Spending Bills: Time is running out on Congress to pass new spending bills to avoid a government shutdown. The first of the two stop-gap spending bills signed into law in November expires on January 19, and the second bill expires on February 2. This will be a major test for new House Speaker Mike Johnson.

 

• Border Crisis: U.S. Border Patrol agents took into custody over 225,000 migrants illegally entering the country through the southern border in December alone. This doesn’t include the 50,000 who entered the U.S. through official ports of entry. The flood of migrants during 2023 has overwhelmed the resources of the Border Patrol and the border states, most notably Texas. Both political parties are to blame for the chaos at the border, but the Biden Administration is taking the brunt of it. Only Congress can legislate the country out of its broken immigration and border policies, but President Biden will take the hit this election year if things don’t improve.   

• Supreme Court and Election Politics: Maine became the second state after Colorado to bar Donald Trump from appearing on its 2024 Republican presidential primary ballot. The justification for such moves is that Donald Trump violated the “insurrection act” of the 14th Amendment. As I wrote in a blog on the topic last September, the law is not clear as to whether the provisions of the 14th Amendment apply to Donald Trump. Even if they did, it would be terrible for the country if a court or a government official, rather than the people, was to decide who was allowed to appear on the ballot. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear Trump’s appeal of the Colorado case on February 8. I hope that the Court decides quickly and decisively in his favor. Otherwise, Trump’s claims of election interference will ring true for millions of Americans, and the faith in free and fair elections could be irreparably harmed. 

• Presidential Race: To the chagrin of the majority of voting age Americans, the 2024 presidential election will probably be a contest between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Unless President Biden becomes ill, or his wife Jill talks some sense into him, he will be the Democrat nominee for President. Donald Trump still has to win his nomination through the primary process, which he should easily do according to most national polls. There is still a chance that the weight of Trump’s legal challenges could bring him down, but time is on his side. The Iowa caucuses will be held on January 15, followed by the New Hampshire primary on January 23, and the South Carolina primary on February 3. Even if one of Trump’s challengers is still hanging on after these first in the nation primary contests, we will all know who the nominee is after Super Tuesday, March 5. 

​Internationally:
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• Israel-Hamas War: This horrific war has dominated headlines since it began on October 7, 2023. The fighting will continue for months, and Israeli is resolute on its determination to wipe out Hamas. The people of Gaza will be dealing with the devastating effects of the war for years to come, and it is hard to see how a lasting peace in the Middle East can emerge from the wreckage.

 

• Ukraine War: Next month the war in Ukraine will enter its third year, with no end in sight. Republicans in Congress are threatening to withhold further aid to Ukraine. But that’s a mistake. Without U.S. support the Russians will eventually wear down the Ukrainians, and Putin will have his victory. Putin will not stop with Ukraine.  Other former Soviet bloc countries will fall to his aggression, including several that are current members of NATO. If Russia attacks a NATO country, the United States will be pulled into a European war and will pay in blood, as well as treasure.    

When I look back upon 2023, I will try and remind myself of all the good that occurred and not be dragged down by the not so good. 2024 is sure to be a turbulent year, but along with the turbulence will come excitement and opportunities. I’m anxious to get started. I typically don’t make New Year’s resolutions, but this year I will make an exception. I will work on being grateful for all of my blessings, and to never lose my sense of humor, no matter how crazy things get.   



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Thanks,
Armchair American