Nikki Haley is Down, But Not Out.

With strong wins in Iowa and New Hampshire in January, it’s unlikely that any other candidate will be able to stop Donald Trump from becoming the Republican nominee for president. Is it too soon to crown Trump the victor? Nikki Haley thinks so. After all, only two states, representing only about 1.4% of the population of the country, have casts their votes.  Haley has vowed to stay in the race for as long as possible, much to the displeasure and downright anger of Trump and the Republican establishment.

​Nikki Haley came in a distant 3rd in the Iowa caucuses, and was defeated by Donald Trump in the New Hampshire primary by 11 points. Other than Trump, she is the only candidate still in the race, and is under tremendous pressure to exit so that the party can coalesce around Trump.  Haley stands defiant against the pressure and has declared, “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states to go”. After Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, Haley said, “The New Hampshire primary is the 1st in the nation, not the last”.

​Donald Trump is angry that Haley hasn’t dropped out of the race and come groveling to his side like Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott and Ron DeSantis. Rather than being gracious in victory, Trump lashed out at Haley during his victory speech in New Hampshire. Referring to Haley, Trump said, “Who the hell was the imposter who went up on stage before, and like, claimed a victory?” He went on to say, “I don’t get too angry. I get even.” I guess that Trump is the only one allowed to claim an election victory after having lost. 

Should Haley Drop Out of Race? Only Nikki Haley should decide if and when it is time for her to drop out of the race. Even though the path to Haley’s victory seems next to impossible, it would be undemocratic to cede the election to Trump after only two states have participated.  The Republican Party should not tell the voters of the other 48 states that their votes don’t matter. As a voter in California, I know exactly how that feels. Prior to 2020, California held its primary elections on the first Tuesday in June. That is very late in the primary season, and the major parties have usually picked a presumptive nominee by then. California now holds its primary elections on Super Tuesday, the first Tuesday in March, giving the voters in the country’s most populous state a voice in the nominating process.  
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I hope that Haley can stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday when voters in 15 states and 1 territory will cast their votes. Eleven of these contests are open or semi-open primaries. That means that independent and unaffiliated voters are allowed to vote for a Republican candidate even though they are not registered Republicans. Haley polls well against Trump with independent voters, and she should pick up a number of delegates.  

The Rules of the Race:   According to Republican National Committee (RNC) rules, a candidate needs to win 1215 delegates to secure the nomination at the Republican National Convention.  This year the convention will be held on July 15-18 in Milwaukee. Most delegates at the convention must vote for the candidate based on the results of the primary or caucus in their state.

Currently Donald Trump has won 32 delegates and Nikki Haley has won 17. The contest is just beginning.

What’s in it for Haley?  If, as many pundits say, Haley has no path to victory, why is she staying in the race? Good question. Is she running to be Trump’s vice president, or perhaps vying for a cabinet post? I doubt it. If that was the case she would have already dropped out of the race and kissed Donald Trump’s ring, like Ramaswamy and Scott, who clearly hope for a top position within a Trump administration.  In recent days Haley has ramped up her attacks on Trump, questioning his mental abilities and fitness for office. Trump won’t soon forgive or forget these attacks. Moreover, Trump doesn’t want anyone on his team with ambition for the top spot and the ability to take the spotlight away from him.
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I believe that Nikki Haley is positioning herself as the second-place finisher in the Republican race, and will be ready to step in for Trump in the event that he is somehow disqualified.

Let’s face facts. Donald Trump will turn 78 years old in June, and is facing 91 criminal counts. Taking into account Trump’s age, lifestyle, and the tremendous amount of stress that he is under, it is not inconceivable that he could have a serious medical event between now and the Republican National Convention. A serious medical event could pull Trump from the race, as could the weight of his legal troubles. If Trump is convicted of one or more of the crimes he is charged with, a significant percentage of the electorate would turn away from him.

According to recent national polls, as well as polls taken after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, nearly one-third of Republican voters would not vote for Donald Trump if he was convicted of a crime.  The RNC is well aware of this, and realizes that Trump couldn’t win the general election if one-third of Republican voters didn’t support him. Therefore, if Trump is convicted of one or more of the 91 crimes he has been charged with, or if the RNC feels that a conviction is imminent, they may opt for a safer bet. That safer bet is Nikki Haley. 

For the good of the Republican Party and democracy, I hope that Nikki Haley stays in the race for as long as possible. But she better watch out for the buckets of slime that will be hurled at her along the way.


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Thanks,
Armchair American