Presidential Leadership and Donald Trump's Reelection Chances

​In 2016 Donald Trump ran for president as an outsider and disrupter. This helped him defeat Hilary Clinton, a Washington insider with over thirty years of baggage. According to exit polling during the 2016 presidential election, the most important quality identified by voters was that the candidate would bring change (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/what-do-voters-want-confrontation-or-compassion). What are voters looking for this time?  What qualities do voters look for in a presidential candidate, and what role does leadership play?

Leadership Qualities in a Good President: According to many historians, there are several leadership qualities found in good presidents (https://www.ushistory.org/gov/7e.asp). They include the following:

• A strong vision for the country’s future.
• Effective communication skills.
• The courage to make unpopular decisions.
• Crisis management skills.
• Character and integrity.
• Makes wise appointments.
• Has an ability to work with Congress.

​Leadership in Turbulent Times: We are certainly living through turbulent times. The coronavirus pandemic has killed or sickened millions of people, forced millions out of work, and placed a dark cloud over the economy. There are ongoing protests over racial injustice, and a widening political divide. But history shows us that America has lived through much more difficult times that required great leadership to see us through. No president was faced with a more difficult challenge than Abraham Lincoln who lead the country through a devastating civil war. Franklin Roosevelt came to power during the Great Depression and then lead the country through World War II. At moments of great challenge these presidents were guided by a sense of moral purpose, sought to heal divisions, and had to bring the country together to summon a common purpose. 

​Doris Kearns Goodwin explores presidential leadership in her book “Leadership: In Turbulent Times”. She discusses the following traits that served several presidents well during turbulent times:

• Empathy: The ability to identify with other points of view.
• Resilience: Learning from difficult moments and the ability to persevere.
• Communication: Great presidents have been able to lead the nation with their words.
• Openness: Great presidents grew in the job from listening to people with views different than their own.
• Impulse Control: Sometimes knowing what not to say is as important as knowing what to say.

How do you think our current slate of presidential candidates rate on these leadership metrics? For a more recent example of a turbulent period of time surrounding a presidential election, I recommend the new film “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, available on Netflix. It recounts the 1968 riots in Chicago during the Democratic National Convention, and the court case that followed.

Why We Vote the Way We Do: Research into why voters choose one presidential candidate over another has been going on for many years. It should be no surprise that the single most powerful predictor of a person’s vote choice is his/her political party affiliation (https://pprg.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/10-The-psychology-of-voting.pdf). Party affiliation is usually based upon shared values and preferences on a handful of key policy issues.

The second predictor of who a voter will choose is based on the voter’s perception of the candidate’s personality traits (intelligence, knowledge, trustworthiness, and ability to be a strong leader). Since I am not affiliated with a political party, I lean towards this camp. This will be the 12th presidential election that I voted in. In the previous eleven, I voted for the Democratic candidate four times, the Republican five times, and a third-party candidate twice. 

Trump vs Biden: Make no mistake, this election is a referendum on Donald Trump. Joe Biden is a secondary character in this drama. Will voters continue to respond to President Trump’s seemingly never-ending chaos and drama? Or will they be motivated by a more steady and stable form of leadership? According to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 64% of Republicans like Trump’s willingness to confront and challenge the establishment in government and to shake up business as usual. In contrast, 70% of Democrats prefer a leader, like Joe Biden, who will bring competence and compassion to the way the government operates.

Why I Don’t Believe Donald Trump Will Win Reelection: The president has not positioned himself to unify the country at a time when it is much needed. This country needs a beacon of hope due to the pandemic, economic uncertainty, and ongoing protests and anger over racial injustice. Donald Trump has used these issues to divide the country rather than to unite it. He has made no appeal to American optimism and aspirations.
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According to a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll, most registered voters believe that in the last four years bipartisanship, race relations, and crime have worsened. Sixty-two percent of registered voters list Donald Trump’s management of COVID-19 as a major failure. COVID cases are surging across the country, and the stock market is sensing a weakening economy as a result. The president has no prescription for either COVID-19 or the weakening economy. In fact, the president has not articulated any vision or policy proposals for the next four years.  The American people really don’t know what Donald Trump believes. He will do and say whatever he thinks will get him reelected. Donald Trump has shown scorn for science, puts politics before people, and aligns himself with the worst elements of our society. He doesn’t know the damage he does by not denouncing QAnon and right-wing militias. I’m sure that he doesn’t really believe in what these groups espouse, just like he really doesn’t hold the views of the religious right. But they are part of his base, and that is all that matters. 

Why I Didn’t Vote for Donald Trump: I didn’t vote for Donald Trump in 2016 because he had never held elected office before, he had no experience in governing, he had little foreign policy experience, and he lacked the temperament and character to lead this country. Donald Trump has now been president for the better part of four years (seems like forty), and my instincts were correct. Here is a list of my top reasons for not voting for Donald Trump in 2020 (but I could have listed many more):

• I Don’t Respect the Man: I will never vote for a candidate that I don’t respect, regardless of their politics. Donald Trump is a great self-promoter, but he lacks the integrity, discipline, selflessness, and intellectual capability to be an effective leader, much less the President of the United States. He is a bully, a narcissist, has a history of abusing women, and belittles anyone who disagrees with him. I can’t believe anything that he says because he will say anything to deflect criticism and to promote himself.​​

• Coronavirus Pandemic Mismanagement: Nobody blames the president for the pandemic, only his mishandling of it. Every action that he took, or didn’t take, was motivated by politics and not the health and safety of the citizens of this country. He second guessed the health experts, mocked the use of face masks, and taunted governors who put public health restrictions in place. He provided no leadership during a national health emergency. The president relegated responsibility to the states, setting off a disruptive and ineffective competition for scarce PPE and other critical supplies. This ad hoc approach left the country vulnerable, resulting in the needless loss of life.

           It is true that the president placed travel restrictions between China and the U.S., followed by             a European travel ban. But this led to chaos at the airports, and a flood of people coming back             into the country before any public health controls could be put in place. Thousands of people             coming back from China seeded the outbreak on the West Coast, and the thousands of people             returning from European hotspots seeded the spread of the virus on the East Coast.
           According to taped conversations with Bob Woodward, the president knew the dangers of                   the coronavirus, but chose to down play them. It is obvious that the president didn’t want to               hurt his reelection chances and gambled with peoples’ lives. This was the deal breaker for me.  

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• Lack of a Healthcare Plan: Donald Trump campaigned on repealing and replacing “Obamacare”. He had some success in dismantling portions of the plan, but he presented no replacement plan to Congress or to the American people. The president has done nothing to lower the cost of healthcare, and the cost of medical premiums is higher than ever. This is a hot button issue with me. It is reckless and incompetent to dismantle the safeguards offered by the existing plan when you have nothing to replace it with. 

• Economic Policy Failure: Donald Trump’s economic policy was geared almost entirely toward lifting growth in the short term, while largely ignoring the long-term dangers. Federal deficits ballooned in order to fund tax cuts which preferentially benefited the wealthy. If this country can’t show fiscal restraint during the boom times, how can it possibly weather the current and future economic downturns. This shows fiscal irresponsibility, and the Republican Party has lost all claims to being the party of fiscal conservatism.

•  Strained Overseas Alliances: Donald Trump has damaged America’s standing, influence, and power in the world. The president has terminated our relationship with the World Health Organization, withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Agreement, and chose a “go it alone” approach to the global pandemic. President Trump has antagonized NATO members over unilateral military actions, and decided to remove nearly 10,000 troops from Germany without conferring with other member states. Trump’s cozying up to dictators like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, while distancing himself from traditional allies, makes no strategic sense.   

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• Stoking Fears About the 2020 Election: Who needs to worry about the Russians and Iranians interfering with the upcoming presidential election when you have President Trump doing his best to do just that. The president has warned that the election will be the most corrupt in history, without offering any proof. He has stated that the only way that he can lose is if the election is rigged. For months he has been claiming that mail-in ballots will lead to massive fraud. These unfounded claims are an attack on democracy itself and are unforgivable for a sitting president. This alone disqualifies Donald Trump from being reelected. He has done lasting damage to our democracy. 

​Americans are resilient, and this country will survive and thrive regardless of the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Due to the millions of mail-in ballots, we may not know the winner for many days after the election. We all need to be patient and let the process work itself out. If Donald Trump wins the election, he will not tear up the Constitution and declare himself “President for Life”. If Joe Biden wins, he will not confiscate your guns, impound your gasoline powered vehicles, or turn the suburbs into public housing projects ruled by violent leftists. 

I have never seen the American electorate more energized by an election, and this is encouraging. If our “experiment” in self-government is to last, more citizens need to be involved. The electorate needs to champion candidates, for all levels of government, who will truly represent the people, and not just their political party. Yes, we are living through turbulent times, but we have been here before. This country is at an inflection point. It’s time we take stock, learn from the lessons of the past, and move forward with the courage and determination to make this representative democracy work for the vast majority of Americans.
 
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