 The South Carolina Republican primary will be held this Saturday, followed by Super Tuesday ten days later when fifteen states and one territory will vote. Short of a strategically placed lightening bolt, Donald Trump will soon be the presumptive Republican nominee for president.  Despite the fact that nearly 70% of registered voters don’t want a Biden-Trump rematch in the fall presidential election, that’s what we will be faced with. There are staunch partisans on both sides of the aisle who will vote for their party’s candidate regardless of who they are. But a large portion of voters in the middle will decide the election. These are the people who need to be persuaded to vote, and vote for the right reasons. That requires education about the candidates and the policies that are important to this country. The next president will determine how our country engages with the outside world and the domestic policies that will impact our everyday lives. This election is too important to sit on the sidelines and take a wait and see attitude. That is why it is so important to educate ourselves and others about the two major presidential candidates and their policy priorities. For my small part in educating people, I will make source material recommendations over the next several months. I have recently finished a book by Liz Cheney and watched a documentary by Frontline that I feel every voter should at least be aware of, if not immerse themselves in.  I found Liz Cheney’s book, “Oath and Honor” to be very readable and compelling. It is an insider’s look at the current state of the Republican Party, and provides a detailed account of the events leading up to the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. As the vice chair of the House select committee investigating the Capitol riot, Cheney provided intimate details of the hundreds of hours of witness testimony and video footage that were uncovered during the investigation.  If you don’t have the time or inclination to read Liz Cheney’s book, then I urge you to watch the Frontline documentary “Democracy on Trial”. I thought I knew a lot about the 2020 presidential election and the final days of the Trump Administration, but this documentary opened my eyes to a lot of details that I was unaware of. The documentary investigates the roots of the criminal cases against former President Trump stemming from his 2020 election loss. It digs into the House January 6th committee’s findings, and brings the evidence to life through interviews with the people who had first-hand knowledge of the events. This is a must see for everyone before they cast their vote in November. Depending upon where you get your news, Liz Cheney’s book and the work of the January 6th committee may be labeled as partisan hit pieces, if they are reported on at all. Or they may be heralded as heroic and essential for protecting the future of our democracy. That is why it is important for all of us to broaden our perspectives and be open to other points of view when evaluating our choices for national leaders. The future of our country is too important to rely on partisan talking heads and social media posts that are pushing a particular point of view. If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com.
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 This month the Congressional Republicans proved once again that doing what’s right for the country takes second place to appeasing Donald Trump. On February 3, 2024 the U.S. Senate introduced a bipartisan border security bill which included aid to Ukraine and Israel. Within hours Trump slammed the bill as a win for Democrats. Trump’s lobbying efforts turned many Republican Senators against the bill and it quickly failed to advance. The fact that Trump can dictate to Republican members of Congress which policies to back shows a real lack on Congressional leadership, and is illustrative of today’s Republican Party.  Politics and the Border: Immigration and border security are among the top issues for both Republican and Democrat voters. The problems at the U.S. border with Mexico have been decades in the making, but they have gotten worse under President Biden, as I outlined in a previous blog. As soon as President Biden came into office, the House Republicans seized on the “border crisis” as an issue to attack him with. Last October, while the House Republicans were scrambling to elect a new House Speaker, the Biden Administration requested more than $105 billion from Congress, mostly to provide military aid to Ukraine and Israel. The request also included about $14 billion to improve security at the southern border. Among other things, the funds would have been used to hire more border agents, install new inspection machines to detect fentanyl, and increase staffing to expedite asylum cases. With the House of Representatives in chaos, it was up to the Senate to move forward on a spending package for Ukraine and Israel. Senate Republicans approached the Democrats with a way forward. They would only back additional assistance to Ukraine if the Democrats agreed to their border security proposals. The Senate leadership soon put together a bipartisan group of Senators to negotiate a deal.  Even before the text of the bill was finalized, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, “I do not think we should do a Border Deal, at all, unless we get EVERYTHING needed to shut down the INVASION of Millions and Millions of people, many from parts unknown, into our once great, but soon to be great again, Country! Also, I have no doubt that our wonderful Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, will only make a deal that is PERFECT ON THE BORDER.” Speaker Johnson, who speaks with Trump regularly, declared the bill “dead on arrival” in the House if it was approved by the Senate. If there was any doubt about Trump's motives, he clearly spelled them out on a post to “Truth Social” on Feb 5, 2024. Part of the post read, “This Bill is a great gift to the Democrats, and a Death Wish for the Republican Party. It takes the HORRIBLE JOB the Democrats have done on Immigration and the Border, absolves them, and puts it all squarely on the shoulders of Republicans.” In case Republican Senators didn’t get the message, Trump called several of them to tell them that the bill was helping Joe Biden, and he (Trump) needed the crisis at the border to continue in order to get elected.
Hypocrisy Over Border Bill: For months Republicans in Congress have demanded new border security measures, only to reject them once they were in hand. Even Mitch McConnell, the top Senate Republican, said that Republicans couldn’t get a better deal even with a Republican in the White House. The bipartisan Senate bill would have provided $20.2 billion for the most substantive changes to border and immigration policy in over a generation. The bill would have overhauled the asylum system, making it more difficult for migrants to qualify. The practice of “catch and release”, in which migrants are released into the U.S. while their claims are being processed, would end. Funding would be available to hire more border agents, asylum officers, support for border states, and even some border barriers. The bill would have granted the president new authority to shut down the border during periods of high migrant crossings, and visas for legal immigrants would be increased by 50,000 a year. The National Border Patrol Council, which represents more than 18,000 border agents, came out strongly in favor of the border bill. The council’s president called the bill transformative and far better than the current status quo. He went on to say that the bill would “drop illegal border crossings nationwide and allow our agents to get back to detecting and apprehending those who want to cross our border illegally and evade apprehension.”  House Impeaches Secretary Mayorkas: If the House Republicans were serious about border security, they would have worked with their Senate colleagues to get it done. But that was not going to happen with Donald Trump calling the shots in an election year. Instead, they chose to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for his “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law” and “breach of public trust” amid a surge in unauthorized migrant crossings. The Republican’s first attempt to impeach Secretary Mayorkas failed last week by three votes. Their second impeachment attempt earlier this week passed by only one vote. The impeachment of Mayorkas is a pathetic attempt to deflect attention away from the House Republicans, who are not serious about passing border security legislation, and place the blame for the border problems on the Biden Administration. The articles of impeachment will go nowhere in the Democrat controlled Senate, and will have accomplished little more than appeasing Donald Trump.  Democrats May Get the Last Laugh: Fixing the broken immigration system and securing the border are top of mind for most voters. But the Republicans can no longer claim that the Democrats did nothing to fix the problem. The Republicans were the ones who killed the Senate bill that would have provided billions of dollars to secure the border and improve the broken immigration system. Democrats in the House and Senate backed the bill, as did President Biden. Donald Trump is responsible for the bill failing so that he could keep the “border crisis” a campaign issue.  The failure of the “National Security and Border Act, 2024” is further proof that the Republican Party has lost its way. It is the height of hypocrisy for House Republicans to impeach the Homeland Security Secretary for not securing the border when they helped defeat a bill that would have done just that. This seems to me to be a dereliction of duty and un-American. The amount of sway that Donald Trump holds over the Republican Party should give all Americans pause. He rules the Congressional Republicans like a puppet master, and will stop at nothing to get reelected. The Grand Old Party is no longer the party of Lincoln when it is beholden to a man who puts himself above the rule of law, above the Constitution, and above the needs of the American people.  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  With strong wins in Iowa and New Hampshire in January, it’s unlikely that any other candidate will be able to stop Donald Trump from becoming the Republican nominee for president. Is it too soon to crown Trump the victor? Nikki Haley thinks so. After all, only two states, representing only about 1.4% of the population of the country, have casts their votes. Haley has vowed to stay in the race for as long as possible, much to the displeasure and downright anger of Trump and the Republican establishment.  Nikki Haley came in a distant 3rd in the Iowa caucuses, and was defeated by Donald Trump in the New Hampshire primary by 11 points. Other than Trump, she is the only candidate still in the race, and is under tremendous pressure to exit so that the party can coalesce around Trump. Haley stands defiant against the pressure and has declared, “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states to go”. After Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, Haley said, “The New Hampshire primary is the 1st in the nation, not the last”.  Donald Trump is angry that Haley hasn’t dropped out of the race and come groveling to his side like Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott and Ron DeSantis. Rather than being gracious in victory, Trump lashed out at Haley during his victory speech in New Hampshire. Referring to Haley, Trump said, “Who the hell was the imposter who went up on stage before, and like, claimed a victory?” He went on to say, “I don’t get too angry. I get even.” I guess that Trump is the only one allowed to claim an election victory after having lost.  Should Haley Drop Out of Race? Only Nikki Haley should decide if and when it is time for her to drop out of the race. Even though the path to Haley’s victory seems next to impossible, it would be undemocratic to cede the election to Trump after only two states have participated. The Republican Party should not tell the voters of the other 48 states that their votes don’t matter. As a voter in California, I know exactly how that feels. Prior to 2020, California held its primary elections on the first Tuesday in June. That is very late in the primary season, and the major parties have usually picked a presumptive nominee by then. California now holds its primary elections on Super Tuesday, the first Tuesday in March, giving the voters in the country’s most populous state a voice in the nominating process. I hope that Haley can stay in the race until at least Super Tuesday when voters in 15 states and 1 territory will cast their votes. Eleven of these contests are open or semi-open primaries. That means that independent and unaffiliated voters are allowed to vote for a Republican candidate even though they are not registered Republicans. Haley polls well against Trump with independent voters, and she should pick up a number of delegates.  The Rules of the Race: According to Republican National Committee (RNC) rules, a candidate needs to win 1215 delegates to secure the nomination at the Republican National Convention. This year the convention will be held on July 15-18 in Milwaukee. Most delegates at the convention must vote for the candidate based on the results of the primary or caucus in their state. Currently Donald Trump has won 32 delegates and Nikki Haley has won 17. The contest is just beginning.  What’s in it for Haley? If, as many pundits say, Haley has no path to victory, why is she staying in the race? Good question. Is she running to be Trump’s vice president, or perhaps vying for a cabinet post? I doubt it. If that was the case she would have already dropped out of the race and kissed Donald Trump’s ring, like Ramaswamy and Scott, who clearly hope for a top position within a Trump administration. In recent days Haley has ramped up her attacks on Trump, questioning his mental abilities and fitness for office. Trump won’t soon forgive or forget these attacks. Moreover, Trump doesn’t want anyone on his team with ambition for the top spot and the ability to take the spotlight away from him. I believe that Nikki Haley is positioning herself as the second-place finisher in the Republican race, and will be ready to step in for Trump in the event that he is somehow disqualified. Let’s face facts. Donald Trump will turn 78 years old in June, and is facing 91 criminal counts. Taking into account Trump’s age, lifestyle, and the tremendous amount of stress that he is under, it is not inconceivable that he could have a serious medical event between now and the Republican National Convention. A serious medical event could pull Trump from the race, as could the weight of his legal troubles. If Trump is convicted of one or more of the crimes he is charged with, a significant percentage of the electorate would turn away from him.  According to recent national polls, as well as polls taken after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, nearly one-third of Republican voters would not vote for Donald Trump if he was convicted of a crime. The RNC is well aware of this, and realizes that Trump couldn’t win the general election if one-third of Republican voters didn’t support him. Therefore, if Trump is convicted of one or more of the 91 crimes he has been charged with, or if the RNC feels that a conviction is imminent, they may opt for a safer bet. That safer bet is Nikki Haley.  For the good of the Republican Party and democracy, I hope that Nikki Haley stays in the race for as long as possible. But she better watch out for the buckets of slime that will be hurled at her along the way.
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AuthorThe Armchair American. 
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