 It was not the result that I wanted, but the American people have given Donald Trump a decisive victory over Kamala Harris. He won both the popular and electoral votes. Harris graciously conceded to Trump, and the transition is underway for the 47th President of the United States of America. The silver lining is that the election results are not being litigated in courtrooms across the country, and there will be a peaceful transfer of power. In the history of the United States there has never been a more uniquely flawed candidate at the head of a major party’s presidential ticket than Donald Trump. That is why I thought that Kamala Harris would squeak out a victory. But I was wrong. The American people had been expressing their dissatisfaction with the direction of the country throughout the campaign, and the Democrats were mostly tone deaf to the things that mattered most, namely high prices and border security. Joe Biden was an unpopular president, and by the time he begrudgingly dropped out the race it was too late for any replacement candidate to mount an effective campaign against Trump. Joe Biden was an 800-pound albatross around Kamala Harris’ neck, and she could never effectively articulate how her administration would be meaningfully different than Biden’s. Republican wins in the House and the Senate sent a clear message that the country wanted change, even if that meant bringing back Donald Trump.  The Democratic Party was clearly out of step with the mood of the country. The progressive politics of the Biden Administration pushed the party left while the majority of the country shifted right. The Trump campaign effectively portrayed the Democrats as a party trying to impose a radical left-wing agenda highlighted by racial, gender and identity politics, while the needs of ordinary Americans were being ignored. As a result, Donald Trump and his party will soon control the executive branch and both Houses of Congress.  But What About Trump? Donald Trump was an unpopular president and unpopular presidential candidate. In recent days his favorability rating surpassed 50% for the first time. Voters were willing to overlook the criminal indictments and convictions, the xenophobia and misogyny, the name calling and petty antics, and the circus atmosphere surrounding Trump. None of Trump’s nonsense and misdeeds impacted voters personally, but high prices and the sense of insecurity resulting from a porous border did. It’s true that Trump’s base of MAGA supporters is strong. But Trump was pushed over the finish line by anti-incumbent voters who rejected Joe Biden’s policies, and by extension his political party.  Trump Gets a Clean Slate: The electorate did more than just forgive Trump’s boorish behavior, it gave permission to the Justice Department to dismiss the two federal criminal cases against him. Within the past few days, a court in Washington D.C. dismissed the case which alleged Trump had attempted to overturn the 2020 election. This week the federal documents case against Trump in Florida was also dismissed. In the court filings to dismiss these cases Special Counsel Jack Smith cited a Justice Department policy that sitting presidents may not be prosecuted. Prosecuting a sitting president would certainly impair his ability to perform his duties, but I doubt that the framers of the Constitution intended the president to be above the law.  The door remains open for the prosecutions to be renewed once Trump leaves office, but the chances of that happening are remote. The American people handed Trump a get out of jail free card when they elected him to be the next president of the United States. Trump still faces state charges in the Georgia election interference case, but odds are that case will die a quiet death. It now appears that Trump’s sentencing for his 34 criminal convictions in the New York hush money case will be delayed until after he leaves office.  Going Forward: Despite his claims to the contrary Trump was not given a mandate by the voters to go “full MAGA” on the country. He received just under 50% of the popular vote, which means that half of the country voted against him. Nonetheless, Trump is newly emboldened by his election victory, the Republican takeover of both Houses of Congress, and the dismissal of the criminal cases against him. There will be little to no restraint on his ambitions to become an all-powerful executive in the Oval Office. His cabinet and other key government positions will be packed with loyalists ready to do his bidding, and Project 2025 will be their roadmap.  For the next two years Trump will yield nearly unfettered control over the reins of government. It’s time for Mr. Trump to put up or shut up and “Make America Great Again”. Without those pesky Democrats to get in his way he has no one to blame but himself if he doesn’t execute on his agenda. The good news is that the mid-term elections are two short years away and the American people get cranky when politicians swing too far to their ideologic extremes, just ask the Democrats. The 2nd Trump term will be a test of the resiliency of the Constitution and the rule of law. It will remind voters of the importance of the separation of powers, the need for checks and balances within the federal government and determine whether the co-equal branches of government actually function as such.  Some Crazy and Not So Crazy Predictions:
To sum it up, Harris lost the election because paychecks went further under Trump. In the immortal words of Democratic strategist James Carvel, “It’s the economy stupid!”  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary, please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 American @gmail.com.
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 Dear President Biden, I voted for you in 2020 without hesitation because Donald Trump posed a clear and present danger to our democracy and had to be defeated. My vote proved justified as Trump’s lies about “the stolen election” led to one of the darkest days in U.S. history, January 6, 2021. Mr. President your many years of government experience and calm demeanor were just what the country needed to move beyond the chaos and trauma of the Trump presidency. When you ran for president in 2020 you were already well into your 70’s, and many Americans had doubts even then whether you had the physical stamina and mental vigor to take on such a demanding job. You calmed people’s fears about your age by saying that “I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else”. At that time Mr. President you campaigned with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Cory Baker, who you called “۰۰۰an entire generation of leaders”, and “۰۰۰the future of this country”. In other speeches you said that “I view myself as a transition candidate”. You portrayed yourself as a one term president to steady the ship of state before transitioning to a new generation of leaders. Now is the time to begin that transition Mr. President. In the CNN debate last month your goal was to show the American people that you have the cognitive ability to beat Donald Trump and to serve four more years as president. You failed in spectacular fashion. Your performance on the debate stage cannot be explained away due to a cold, jetlag or fatigue. No one is buying your explanation that you simply had a bad night. It will take a candidate with physical stamina and sharp mental faculties to defeat Donald Trump in the fall and to lead this country for the next four years. The American people don’t believe that you are up to the challenge. Your recent interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos did nothing to quell concerns over whether you have the mental acuity to serve another term as president. It proved to me that you are not being honest with yourself or the American people about your health. The shocked reaction to your debate performance shows that your administration has shielded you from public scrutiny and has not been transparent with what is now apparent to all. You are not the man the American people elected in 2020, and your fitness to stay in the presidential race is in doubt. Mr. President, the majority of registered voters were never enthusiastic about a rematch between you and Donald Trump, and the distaste for such a rematch only grows. You have stated that you are the most qualified person to be president and to defeat Donald Trump. But your poll numbers have taken a substantial hit since the debate, and you are now trailing him nationally and in the all-important battleground states. As an incumbent president you should be trouncing your opponent who is a convicted felon, serial liar, and responsible for the January 6th Capitol riot. Your refusal to acknowledge your negative poll numbers shows how out of touch you are with the sentiments in the country. It is hubris to think that you are the best candidate to defeat Donald Trump in the fall. You have criticized the Republic Party as being a cult of personality built around one man. Show the American people that the Democrat Party is a party of principles and bigger than one person. It is not too late to pull out of the race on your own terms and preserve your legacy as a successful president. If you don’t get out, the next four months will be a nonstop test of your mental acuity. Every speech you make, every interview, every utterance will be analyzed for any signs of decline. Your record of successes and the issues important to the American people will be drowned out by a continual sound loop of your verbal stumbles gleefully played by the Republicans. This will take a toll on you personally and politically and will be a drag on other Democrats down the ballot. President Biden, if you put your political clout behind Vice President Kamala Harris it will ignite a spark under the moribund campaign, and improve the Democrat’s chances with independents, undecided voters and those sitting on the sidelines. The decision to stay in the race is entirely yours Mr. President, but the American people will live with the consequences for years to come. Don’t go down in history as the president who oversaw the transition of the United States from a democracy to an autocracy and the ascendancy of King Donald I to the presidential throne. Thank you for your service Mr. President. Sincerely, A very concerned voter. July 8, 2024  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com. Thanks, Armchair American Update: On July 21 President Biden announced that he would end his presidential re-election campaign. In a speech to the nation he said "The defense of democracy is more important than any title." He went on to say that nothing can come in the way of saving democracy, and that includes personal ambition.
Thank you Mr. President for putting country ahead of self.  According to recent polls approximately fifty-five percent of U.S. adults are dissatisfied with both major party candidates, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Count me among this group. In previous blogs I have written about the need for another major political party in the U.S. to weaken the stranglehold on our politics by the Democrat and Republican duopoly. But now is not the time. In the midst of a razor thin presidential race, a third-party candidate could easily disrupt the race in ways that may not be in the best interests of the county. As a point of clarification, when I refer to a third-party candidate, I am also referring to independent candidates who are not affiliated with a political party.  Here is a list of the major third-party candidates who have obtained ballot access in at least some of the 50 states: Candidate # of States with Ballot Access Robert F. Kennedy Jr.(Independent) 10 (14 pending) Chase Oliver(Libertarian) 33 ( 1 pending) Jill Stein(Green) 23 ( 1 pending) Cornell West(Independent) 6 ( 2 pending)  Obstacles Confronting Third-Party Candidates: Even with all the discontent with the major political parties, third-party candidates have had little success in garnering much national support. Americans have never elected a third-party candidate for president. It takes a tremendous amount of money and the backing of a large political team to run an effective national campaign. In this country most of the big money donors and political talent are controlled by the Democrats and Republicans. Elections are administered by the states, governed by laws written by politicians who are members of one of the two major parties. Just getting on the ballot in each of the fifty states is an arduous and expensive task. The major political parties handle this for their candidates, but independent candidates are on their own.  There are some variations between states, but there are basically three ways to get on a state’s ballot.
Without access to the ballot in all fifty states it is nearly impossible to win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. All states, except Maine and Nebraska, award all their electoral votes to the candidate that received the most overall votes in their state. Maine and Nebraska award their electoral votes by Congressional district. In 1992 Ross Perot ran the most successful third-party campaign for president since Teddy Roosevelt’s in 1912. Perot won 19% of the popular vote running against George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. But even the most successful independent run for president in the past 100 years didn’t earn Perot a single electoral vote.  Impact of Third-Party Candidates in Recent Years: Ross Perot in 1992: Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush in the 1992 presidential race with 43% of the vote. Running as an independent, Ross Perot pulled a significant number of Republican and independent votes from Bush, which likely cost him the election. Ralph Nader in 2000: In the closely contested 2000 presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush, it came down to the state of Florida to determine the winner. Ralph Nadar was the candidate for the left leaning Green Party and won 97,488 of the Florida votes. Bush beat Gore in Florida by only 573 votes and secured the presidency. Did Ralph Nadar spoil the election for Al Gore? It’s hard to argue otherwise. Jill Stein in 2016: In the 2016 presidential race Hillary Clinton received 2.9 million more popular votes than Donald Trump, yet Trump received 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227 and won the election. With approximately 7 million votes going to third-party, independent and write-in candidates, either Clinton or Trump could have benefitted if they received even a small percentage of these votes. Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a combined total of less than 80,000 votes, giving all electoral votes from these states to Trump. If all of Jill Stein’s votes went to Clinton in these states she would have won the election. Jill Stein was the candidate for the left leaning Green Party, so this scenario is plausible. The Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received three times as many votes as Jill Stein and it is impossible to know how many of his votes would have gone to either Trump or Clinton if he weren’t in the race. 2020: In the 2020 presidential election only 2% of the votes went to a third-party or independent candidate compared to 6% in 2016. This is probably no accident. The Democrat Party was convinced that Hilary Clinton lost the election in 2016 due to votes that went to third-party candidates, particularly Jill Stein. Operatives for the Democrats went to work and were successful in limiting the number of states where the Green Party candidate appeared on the ballot for the 2020 election. In that election the Green Party candidate appeared on the ballot in only 22 states compared to 48 in 2016. The 2020 election was extremely close in several key battleground states. If third-party and independent candidates received votes in numbers closer to historical norms, the election could have turned out very different. Joe Biden won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada by less than 3% of the votes. The margin of victory for Joe Biden in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia was less than 1%. These are sobering facts for the Democrats in the runup to the 2024 election.  Looking Ahead to 2024 Election: The dynamics of the 2024 election are pointing to an election where independent and third-party candidates could play a significant role in the outcome. Current national polls put the race at a statistical dead heat, with Trump and Biden both polling at around 41% among registered voters. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running a distant third at about 10%, with the remaining voters either undecided or throwing their support behind Jill Stein, Chase Oliver, or Cornell West. It is impossible to know precisely how any one of these third-party candidates will impact the election, but with the overall discontent with the major party candidates, it is something that concerns both campaigns. Of concern to the Biden campaign are left leaning candidates Jill Stein and Cornell West. Chase Oliver is the libertarian candidate but is left leaning and could also pull some of Biden’s votes.  Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the wildcard in the race and has the potential to be the biggest disrupter. Kennedy has the advantage of his famous name, which gives him instant recognition, and he will be on most of the ballots in the battleground states. He is a former Democrat, but well known for his anti-vax and conspiratorial views. This might explain why he is pulling support away from both Biden and Trump. I think that the Biden campaign has the most to fear from Kennedy due to his strong support among Latinos and younger voters. The Biden and Trump campaigns are both nervous that Kennedy could siphon away votes. Trump is now painting Kennedy as a “radical left lunatic” and a “liberal parading in conservative clothing". Biden has enlisted the help of the Kennedy clan who have thrown their support behind him and denounced their wayward relative.  If history is any guide, most voters will coalesce around one of the two major candidates as the election nears. That will still leave several million votes going to someone other than Trump or Biden. The election will be decided in the battleground states which proved to be decisive for Biden in the last election, but by very narrow margins. An independent or third-party candidate has no chance of winning 270 electoral votes in the 2024 presidential election, so the next president of the United States will be either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. If you prefer either of these candidates, you should make your vote count and vote for them. Now is not the time to issue a protest by voting for a third-party, independent, or write in candidate, or by not voting at all. This election is too important, and the outcome will shape the direction of our democracy for years to come.  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  A lot has happened in the country since I posted my last blog in early March. It was good to tune out the barrage of news focused on the ongoing wars, politics, the Trump trials, and college protests. But as I reenter the fray, I want to make a few comments on some of the stories that caught my attention.  Speaker Johnson Shows Some Leadership: On March 22 House Speaker Mike Johnson, despite fierce opposite by far-right members of his own party, pushed through a $1.2 trillion bipartisan spending package that will fund the government for the rest of the year. The Senate approved the bill the following day and it was signed into law by President Biden that afternoon. By reaching across the aisle to get Democrat support for the spending bill, Speaker Johnson showed that he was willing to act in a bipartisan way to avert a government shutdown. In April Speaker Johnson once again showed his willingness to put country ahead of party by getting the House to approve the $95 billion foreign aid bill. Among other things, the bill provides urgently needed military aid to Ukraine and Israel, as well as humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza. Getting this bill passed in the House was the right thing to do despite opposition from many Republicans. House member Marjorie Taylor Greene will likely call for a vote in the House to have Johnson removed as Speaker. Many Democrats have vowed to support the Speaker, so his job should be secure. House Republicans are not foolish enough to remove another Speaker and throw the House of Representatives into chaos this close to a presidential election.  “No Labels” Drops Out of Presidential Contest: The centrist political organization No Labels announced in early April that it would not nominate a candidate for the 2024 presidential election. Several nationally recognized politicians were under consideration, such as Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, and former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan. But in the end no politician of consequence was willing to run as a third-party candidate and potentially spoil the election for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Whoever wins the presidential election will do so by a very slim margin. A third-party candidate backed by No Labels would have certainly swayed the election by pulling many independent voters and some Democrats that are not thrilled that Joe Biden is running for reelection. I am not opposed to third-parties, but with the stakes so high in this election, I am happy that No Labels is not running a candidate for president.  Trump on Trial: Donald Trump is currently on trial in a New York courtroom facing thirty-four criminal counts of falsifying business records. He is the first ever former U.S. president to face criminal charges. The so-called “hush-money trial” revolves around $130,000 paid to former porn actress Stormy Daniels, who claims to have had an affair with Donald Trump. The prosecution claims that Trump falsified checks and invoices to his personal lawyer Michael Cohen to disguise the payments as legal expenses. Paying people for their silence is not a crime. Disguising the payments as legal expenses runs afoul of business and tax laws. Prosecutors are also trying to show that the payments were a criminal effort to deceive voters ahead of the 2016 presidential election. If the payments to Stormy Daniels and others were indeed meant to influence the 2016 election, then Trump’s campaign committee violated campaign finance laws by not reporting them as campaign expenses. Donald Trump will likely get convicted on one or more of the 34 counts that he is facing, but will it matter? Probably not. If Trump is convicted, the conviction will immediately be appealed, and the outcome will not be known until after the election. For me, whether or not Trump is convicted is not as important as the spotlight the trial shines on his character. The salacious and unsavory details brought out in the trial are reminders of the character of the man currently leading the Republican Party. Through his several bankruptcies we know that Trump has always been reckless in his business life. The trial reminds us that ethical behavior, morality and the practice of family values are not his strong points. His personal associations, his ability to twist the truth, and his seeming inability to take responsibility for his actions demonstrate his true character. Trump’s violations of the court’s gag orders during the trial show how undisciplined he is and highlights his disdain for authority. Donald Trump will continue to claim that the trial is proof that the Department of Justice has been weaponized against him, and he will raise millions of dollars in campaign donations as a result. Trump has called the trial “election interference” since it prevents him from being out on the campaign trail. But isn’t the payment of “hush-money” to keep damaging reports of extramarital affairs from the American people the real election interference?  College Campus Protests: Pro-Palestinian rallies on U.S. college campuses began soon after the Israel-Hamas war began on October 7, 2023. But as the war has dragged on and the suffering of the people in Gaza has intensified, pro-Palestinian protests at over 46 college campuses has escalated. Since the middle of April protestor encampments have sprung up at many college campuses to show solidarity with Palestinians and to voice opposition to what they view as a war of aggression by Israel. Protest leaders vowed to keep their encampments in place until the colleges agreed to meet such demands as divestment from Israeli companies and companies that do business with Israel. Many Jewish students have felt unsafe and unprotected on campus, and in some cases have been the victims of intimidation and antisemitism. There have been calls from Congress for colleges and universities to do more to protect Jewish students. Since the beginning of the war, campus protests have been mostly peaceful. But this all changed in recent weeks as counter protests have sprung up on some campuses, aided by outside agitators, leading to violence, destruction of property, and the upheaval of campus activities. This has led many college administrations to call in law enforcement to clear the encampments, leading to over 2400 arrests to date. Most of the protests have been peaceful and lawful. But some, like Columbia University and UCLA , were allowed to get out of control by the campus administrators leading to destruction of property, violence and mass arrests. Colleges need to balance the 1st Amendment rights of students and faculty with campus safety while maintaining orderly operations of their institutions. The exercise of free speech and the right to peacefully assemble should be guaranteed on all college campuses, within limits. These limits should include:
Students have the right to protest, but not at the expense of the rights of other students to study and learn in peace. Students should be allowed to voice their opinions on the Israel-Hamas war, or on any other topic. But when that speech interferes with the rights of other students, or it becomes unlawful, then a line has been crossed and it is no longer protected.  War protests are not new on our college campuses or public squares. Free speech and peaceful protests are protected by our constitution. But expressions of hate and the threats of violence against another person or group are not protected speech. Hate speech should be condemned in the strongest possible way, regardless of which side of the conflict you are on. If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  The South Carolina Republican primary will be held this Saturday, followed by Super Tuesday ten days later when fifteen states and one territory will vote. Short of a strategically placed lightening bolt, Donald Trump will soon be the presumptive Republican nominee for president.  Despite the fact that nearly 70% of registered voters don’t want a Biden-Trump rematch in the fall presidential election, that’s what we will be faced with. There are staunch partisans on both sides of the aisle who will vote for their party’s candidate regardless of who they are. But a large portion of voters in the middle will decide the election. These are the people who need to be persuaded to vote, and vote for the right reasons. That requires education about the candidates and the policies that are important to this country. The next president will determine how our country engages with the outside world and the domestic policies that will impact our everyday lives. This election is too important to sit on the sidelines and take a wait and see attitude. That is why it is so important to educate ourselves and others about the two major presidential candidates and their policy priorities. For my small part in educating people, I will make source material recommendations over the next several months. I have recently finished a book by Liz Cheney and watched a documentary by Frontline that I feel every voter should at least be aware of, if not immerse themselves in.  I found Liz Cheney’s book, “Oath and Honor” to be very readable and compelling. It is an insider’s look at the current state of the Republican Party, and provides a detailed account of the events leading up to the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. As the vice chair of the House select committee investigating the Capitol riot, Cheney provided intimate details of the hundreds of hours of witness testimony and video footage that were uncovered during the investigation.  If you don’t have the time or inclination to read Liz Cheney’s book, then I urge you to watch the Frontline documentary “Democracy on Trial”. I thought I knew a lot about the 2020 presidential election and the final days of the Trump Administration, but this documentary opened my eyes to a lot of details that I was unaware of. The documentary investigates the roots of the criminal cases against former President Trump stemming from his 2020 election loss. It digs into the House January 6th committee’s findings, and brings the evidence to life through interviews with the people who had first-hand knowledge of the events. This is a must see for everyone before they cast their vote in November. Depending upon where you get your news, Liz Cheney’s book and the work of the January 6th committee may be labeled as partisan hit pieces, if they are reported on at all. Or they may be heralded as heroic and essential for protecting the future of our democracy. That is why it is important for all of us to broaden our perspectives and be open to other points of view when evaluating our choices for national leaders. The future of our country is too important to rely on partisan talking heads and social media posts that are pushing a particular point of view. If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  The new year is starting off much like it ended, with a lot of negative news. The mood in the country seems to be gloomy, and nobody seems enthusiastic about the presidential election which will consume much of the year. I’m not immune to all of the gloom and doom. When I look back on what I wrote about in 2023, it was mostly about the chaos in Congress, foreign wars, and the presidential candidates nobody seems to want. But it is time to shake off the gloom and look beyond the headlines, because 2023 was actually an amazing year. Positives from 2023: Negative and tragic news tend to grab all of the headlines. But if you dig a little deeper, there were so many positive things that occurred in 2023. Here are but a few:
 Looking Ahead to 2024: There will be a lot of ups and downs this year. In ten short months our country will hold another presidential election. For better or for worse this will dominate the news cycle. But there is a lot going on closer to home and across the world that deserves our attention. In the near-term many of these issues seem downright depressing, but maybe 2024 will surprise us with some positive outcomes. Here are some of the issues that I will be following:  Statewide: The state of California is facing many challenges. Illegal immigration and homelessness are among the biggest. But the one that I will be watching closely is the massive $68 billion budget deficit facing the state. This is mostly due to severe revenue declines (lower tax collections) in 2022-2023. Major budget cuts, tapping into the rainy-day fund, and creative financing will all be on the table. Governor Gavin Newsom’s political future will rest on his ability to put the state’s fiscal house in order.
Nationally:
 Internationally:
 When I look back upon 2023, I will try and remind myself of all the good that occurred and not be dragged down by the not so good. 2024 is sure to be a turbulent year, but along with the turbulence will come excitement and opportunities. I’m anxious to get started. I typically don’t make New Year’s resolutions, but this year I will make an exception. I will work on being grateful for all of my blessings, and to never lose my sense of humor, no matter how crazy things get.
If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com. Thanks, Armchair American  Votes in several House races are still being counted, but one thing is already clear. The 2022 midterm elections were a victory for the democratic process and election integrity in this country. The Democrats have retained the majority in the Senate, and the Republicans will take the leadership role in the House of Representatives by a narrow margin. Politics aside, all fair-minded Americans should be breathing a sigh of relief. There were few, if any, incidences of violence in and around polling places, and with the exception of some armed “poll watchers” in Arizona, voter intimidation was not a problem. The vast majority of candidates who lost their races graciously conceded to their opponents. A move toward normalcy? Let’s hope so. This blog is about some of my takeaways fr0m the midterm elections.  The Democrat Party Defies the Odds: Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the sitting president, but this one was a referendum on former President Donald Trump. Most of the polls and pundits got it wrong by predicting a “red wave” which would have given the Republicans a large majority in the House and possibly the Senate. With 40-year high inflation and President Biden’s approval rating hovering around 40%, Republicans stumbled badly in not performing better than they did. So how did the President manage to have the best midterms of any president in 20 years? Let’s take a look.  Abortion and Reproductive Rights: When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed the constitutional right to an abortion, it was celebrated as a major victory by many conservative Republicans. But to many Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans, this was seen as an attack on personal freedoms and reproductive rights. This issue motivated many to vote in the midterms, including many young voters under the age of 45 who lean heavily Democrat. In all five states where abortion related issues were on the ballot, voters chose to protect abortion rights. But abortion wasn’t the only thing on voters’ minds. As summer turned to fall, the issue of abortion rights began to fade as inflation and economic issues took center stage.  Threats to Democracy: In a September speech, President Biden delivered a blistering attack on Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans, who he characterized as extremists and a threat to democracy. The speech was considered provocative and divisive by most Republicans, and not helpful by some within the President’s own party. But the message resonated with many Democrats and Independents, and became a major messaging point for Democrats on the campaign trail. The recent violent attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband was a brutal reminder of the dangers of extremism and toxic rhetoric.  The Trump Factor: In recent days many in the Republican Party have attributed their underperformance in the midterms to poor candidates and bad messaging. Although Donald Trump will never admit it, much of this lies squarely on his shoulders.  Poor Candidates: Several of the candidates backed by Donald Trump failed in key races across the country. The main attributes of a Trump backed candidate are, total loyalty to him, and a belief that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Trump’s support was critical in getting these candidates across the finish line in primary races when the base of the party vote in large numbers. But many of the Trump backed candidates lacked political experience, qualifications, and competence, which are crucial to winning a general election.  Trump handed the Senate to the Democrats by backing the following wholly unqualified candidates in races that could have been won by more qualified Republican candidates: Blake Masters in Arizona, Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and Herschel Walker in Georgia. Herschel Walker will face the Democrat Raphael Warnock in a run-off election on December 6, 2022. The Democrats will maintain the leadership in the Senate regardless of the outcome of this race, which I think will go to the much more qualified and competent, Raphael Warnock.  Trump’s backing of fellow election denier Adam Laxalt in the Nevada Senate race failed to secure a win against the vulnerable Democrat incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. Even Kari Lake, the MAGA Superstar and vocal election denier, couldn’t win the open governor’s seat in Arizona with the adoring support of Donald Trump.  Bad Messaging: Donald Trump is extremely popular among the base of the Republican Party where his stale message of a rigged 2020 election plays well. The Republican base votes in large numbers in primary elections, helping candidates who embrace Trump and his stolen election lie. As the midterms have shown, election denial is not a winning message during a general election. What the midterm elections have made crystal clear is that attacking the integrity of American elections is not a winning strategy. General elections are about policies, not personalities or past grievances. The winning messages for the Republicans included high inflation, crime, and problems at the border. But these were overshadowed by talk of stolen elections, conspiracy theories, and investigations to come. Fortunately for democracy, every 2020 election denier who sought to become the top election official in a critical background state lost their election. This proved once again that MAGA extremism doesn’t play well to a general audience. The Road Ahead for the Republican Party  Congress: With thirteen House races yet to be decided, it appears that sometime tomorrow the Republicans will secure the 218 seats required to win the majority in the House of Representatives. What is less clear is who will be the next Speaker of the House. Kevin McCarthy is the leading candidate to become the Republican leader in the House. But with such a slim majority he will have to fight for the speakership, which will be voted on by the full House on January 3, 2023. McCarthy will need at least 218 votes to become speaker. A tall order with such a small majority of Republican held seats. Many in the pro-Trump House Freedom Caucus, which includes Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan, have already indicated that they will withhold support for McCarthy unless he concedes to their requests. Other factions within the House Republican Caucus will no doubt seize the opportunity to push forward their agendas. With at least 150 election deniers elected to fill House seats during this election cycle, whoever the next speaker is will have a difficult time keeping this crowd in check.  Donald Trump is Not Going Away: As far as Donald Trump is concerned, he is the leader of the Republican Party, and any shortfalls in the midterms were not his fault. In order to punctuate this point, in defiance of many Republican stalwarts, Donald Trump announced today his candidacy for President of the United States in 2024.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis: If there was any type of red wave during the midterms it was in Florida. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis easily beat his Democrat challenger by nearly 20 points. The Republicans won supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and Florida picked up four additional Republican seats in the House of Representatives. DeSantis is seen as the main challenger to Donald Trump for the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination. Although DeSantis has not made his intentions known about running for president, he has certainly gotten under the skin of Donald Trump. Trump’s early announcement about his 2024 candidacy was clearly designed to blunt DeSantis’ rising star. Even before Trump announced his candidacy, he began taking swipes at DeSantis, and true to Trump’s adolescent ways, he coined a derogatory nickname for him, “Ron De-Sanctimonious”. I think that it will turn out to be a battle royal for the soul of the Republican Party, and for the sake of the party, I hope that DeSantis runs.  Team Normal or MAGA Republicans: After the disappointing midterms, the Republican Party is very much at a crossroads. Do the Republicans continue to embrace Donald Trump, or do they see the midterm defeats as a wakeup call and go in a different direction? If recent history is any guide, Trump will continue to enjoy enormous influence within his party, and he will not go away until he is rejected by Republican voters.
There are many Republican legislators and governors who would clearly like to move beyond Trump and his extremist rhetoric. Wyoming Republican Liz Cheney called the midterm results “a clear victory for Team Normal”, and a step in the right direction. Republican Senator Mitt Romney, perhaps the captain of Team Normal, urged Republicans to work with Democrats on issues critical to the American people. Romney acknowledged that it would be counterproductive to “pursue pointless investigations, messaging bills, threats and government shutdowns”. Let’s hope that Republican legislators and voters take Romney’s message to heart. The results of the 2022 midterm elections should bolster Americans’ faith in the integrity of elections and in democracy itself. It has been a good month for democracy and a bad one for political divisiveness and extremist rhetoric. Let’s hope that Team Normal can expand its ranks within the Republican Party, and that the new Congress will work for the benefit of the people, and not their party. If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com. Thanks, Armchair American |
AuthorThe Armchair American. 
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