Armchair American Blog

Would Ukraine be Better Off if Trump was President?

3/18/2022

Donald Trump believes that if he was still President the war in Ukraine would be much different, and may not have occurred at all. He is certainly entitled to his opinion. Trump’s interactions with Ukraine while he was in office, and his relations to Vladimir Putin tell a different story. Trump has not been shy about expressing his opinions since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. So, it is not difficult to conjecture about the war in Ukraine under a Trump Administration. Donald Trump’s views on the end of the Afghanistan war, his interactions with Ukrainian President Zelensky, his lack of support for NATO, and his relationship to Putin, tell a very different story than what is actually unfolding.

Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Donald Trump and Republican leaders have been crowing in recent weeks that President Biden's “abrupt” end to the Afghanistan War showed American weakness and emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine. There is no evidence of this, and is ludicrous coming from Donald Trump.

The truth is, the Trump Administration signed an agreement with the Taliban on February 29, 2020 for the complete withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan by May 2021. This agreement achieved no meaningful commitments from the Taliban, and essentially cut out the U.S. supported Afghanistan Government in Kabul. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Trump was patting himself on the back for this agreement. In one Twitter post he stated “I started the process, all the troops are coming home, they (Biden) couldn’t stop the process”. On an April 18, 2021 post to his website, Trump stated “Getting out of Afghanistan is a wonderful and positive thing to do. I planned to withdraw on May 1”. He went further by criticizing President Biden for waiting until September 11, 2021 to withdraw the troops from Afghanistan.

Putin has been planning to invade Ukraine and bring it under his orbit for many years. He showed his hand with the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Later that same year, Russian-backed separatists seized the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine by force. Even though the American withdrawal from Afghanistan was a botched affair, it had nothing to do with Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Ostensibly Trump would have executed the withdrawal from Afghanistan with precision, leaving no doubt about the military might of the United States, and giving pause to every world leader who opposed that might.

Donald Trump’s Relationship to Ukraine: Donald Trump’s relationship to Ukraine during his Presidency can best be described as scandalous. Trump attempted to get the government of Ukraine to open an investigation into the activities of candidate Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. During a phone call in 2019 to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump threatened to withhold nearly $400 million in Congressionally authorized military aid if he didn’t do Trump this favor. Trump also promised President Zelensky the honor of a White House visit if other favors were delivered. These quid pro quos damaged the prestige of the White House, and did little to solidify U.S-Ukraine relations. This appalling episode made President Zelensky look foolish, made Ukraine look like a tool of the West, and led to the first impeachment of Donald Trump.

It is hard to believe that if Donald Trump was still President he would be Ukraine’s champion. Afterall, what would be in it for him?

Donald Trump’s Relationship to Vladimir Putin: As Russian tanks and troops amassed on the borders of Ukraine, Donald Trump called Putin a genius, very smart, and savvy. Once the invasion began, Trump called the Biden Administration weak, and member states of NATO “not so smart”. But in recent days, as the world turned against Putin and his invasion of Ukraine, Trump has done an about-face. Now “the Russian attack on Ukraine is appalling. It is an outrage, and an atrocity that should never have been allowed to occur”.

The billion-dollar question is whether a President Trump would support, or at least turn a blind eye to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Let’s take a look at Trump’s words and deeds while in office, as a guidepost.

Russia invaded and then annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. This led to international condemnation and sanctions on Russia. It also led to the expulsion of Russia from the Group of Eight (G8), an inter-governmental political forum which includes France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. During a G7 meeting in 2018, Trump called for Russia to be reinstated, and questioned leaders as to why they sided with Ukraine over Russia. Afterall, Trump told the other leaders, “Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world”.

At a summit meeting with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in the summer of 2018, Trump sided with Russia against his own U.S. intelligence agencies. At the summit, Trump disavowed the findings of U.S. intelligence agencies which had concluded that Russia had indeed interfered in the 2016 elections. Trump stated during a press conference that he believed Putin, who had told him that Russia had not meddled in the U.S. elections. Does this sound like a leader who would back Ukraine over Russia?

The NATO Alliance: The member states of NATO have come together swiftly and decisively to aid Ukraine against Russian aggression. We haven’t witnessed this much unity in NATO since the attacks on 9/11. The Swedes and Fins are considering joining NATO. Even Germany has been shaken from its pacifist stance to dramatically increase military spending and supply Ukraine with defensive weapons and supplies.

Of course, Donald Trump takes credit for all of this. He stated on February 28 “There would be no NATO if I didn’t act strongly and swiftly”. But according to recent reports in The Washington Post and The New York Times, Trump told his senior administration officials on several occasions that he wanted to withdraw from the NATO alliance. In 2020 Trump ordered the withdrawal of about a third of U.S. troops stationed in Germany.

If Trump had won the 2020 election it is possible that he would have followed through on his threats to withdraw from NATO. That would have severely weakened and undermined the alliance and played right into the hands of Vladimir Putin. According to Retired Admiral James G. Stavrids, the former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, an American withdrawal from NATO would be “a geopolitical mistake of epic proportion”.

What Trump doesn’t realize, is that his threats to withdraw from NATO undermined the alliance and actually emboldened Putin. What would Ukraine’s fate be if not for NATO? It would end up being annexed by Russia, and Russia would be on its way to recreating the U.S.S.R. President Biden has taken the lead on sanctioning Russia, providing military aid to Ukraine, and uniting the NATO alliance.

Donald Trump is using revisionism and twisted logic to paint himself as a friend to Ukraine and foe to Vladimir Putin. Just as with Vladimir Putin’s tortured justifications for invading Ukraine, the American people and the world will not be fooled. You can draw your own conclusions about the fate of Ukraine, and indeed the fate of the world, if Donald Trump was still President. But I for one am glad that Joe Biden is our President during this time of international conflict. The world would not be a safer place if one more leader of questionable emotional stability, had access to nuclear weapons.

If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.

Thanks,
Armchair American

0 Comments

Putin's War.

3/7/2022

0 Comments

On February 25, 2022 Russia’s President Vladimir Putin unleashed the largest military operation in Europe since World War II. Putin’s unprovoked invasion of the sovereign country of Ukraine shows what lengths he will go to in an attempt to rectify grievances, both real and imagined. Attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine show his disdain for human life. The shelling of nuclear installations demonstrates Putin’s disregard for the norms of a civilized nation, not to mention his indifference to unleashing toxic materials into the environment. The arrest of thousands of his fellow citizens who oppose him, and the suppression of the free press and social media within Russia, show his distrust and disdain for his own citizens. Putin’s initiation of an illegal war in the face of worldwide condemnation, shows his indifference to the international community. Putin will stop at nothing to achieve his aims, as demonstrated by his threat to use nuclear weapons against those who oppose him. For the sake of Ukraine, peace in Europe, and respect for democratic principles around the world, Putin must be stopped.

What Does Putin Hope to Gain: Putin has admitted to Western leaders that he will stop at nothing to achieve his goals in Ukraine, and the West should believe him. So, what are his goals? Simply put, to prevent Ukraine from ever joining any Western alliance which opposes Russia. Putin will not stop until he has overthrown Ukraine’s government headed by democratically elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, and replaced it with a puppet regime. Ultimately Putin hopes to annex the entire country of Ukraine, as he did with the Crimea in 2014, which is now part of Russia.

What Motivated Putin to Invade Ukraine: No one knows for sure what motivated Putin to invade his peaceful neighbor, which poses no threat to Russia. By all accounts, Putin has become isolated and paranoid in recent years, and this has only been compounded by the COVID pandemic. Putin claims that Russia’s invasion was to free Ukraine from oppression and “cleansed of the Nazis”, and to bring to justice “those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians”. This is nonsensical of course. You would think that the former KBG agent could come with something better than that.

Many observers point to three major motivations behind Putin’s military assault on Ukraine: grievances stemming from the collapse of the Soviet Union, unchecked expansion by NATO resulting in security concerns, and protection of Russia’s energy markets (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/25/magazine/russia-united-states-world-politics.html).

Grievances: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Putin has watched Russia’s prestige and influence dwindle on the global stage. Putin described the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. To Putin, the two world wars and the Holocaust were lesser events. Russia expected to be treated as an equal partner in world affairs with the United States, with the right to retain influence over countries in the former Soviet Bloc. But with Russia in chaos, this was not to be.

Security Issues: Putin claims that the United States reneged on its pledge not to expand NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) to countries bordering Russia. This pledge was never made (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/why-nato-and-ukraine-are-a-flash-point-with-russia-30-after-the-end-of-the-cold-war).

Russia has no right to dictate NATO’s membership. According to its chapter, NATO membership is open to “any other European state in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area” (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm). Since the end of the cold war, fourteen former Soviet Bloc countries have joined NATO, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have borders with Russia.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but the two entities did enter into a Comprehensive Assistance Package in 2016 (https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_09/20160920_160920-compreh-ass-package-ukra.pdf).

NATO has made overtures to both Georgia and Ukraine, which is a line in the sand for Putin. President Zelensky of Ukraine has stated his intentions to join NATO as well as the European Union. This sealed his fate in the mind of Putin.

Protecting Russia’s Energy Sector: Oil and gas account for 60% of Russia’s export revenue and about 40% of its total budget expenditures. Europe is a huge natural gas market for Russia, and an inability to access this market threatens its economic security. Russia relies on a pipeline through Belarus and another through Ukraine to reach European markets. If Ukraine aligns with the West through the EU (European Union) or NATO, this threatens Russian’s pipelines and its economic stability.

Petro dollars keep Putin in power, and he has calculated that the West would not threaten the flow of Russian oil and gas for fear of hurting their own economies. So far Putin’s calculation has proven correct.

Actions the West Should Take: Ukraine is one of the most impoverished countries in Europe. Despite the heroism and resolve of its people, Ukraine has no chance of repelling the military might of Russia and the resolve of Vladimir Putin. NATO won’t send combat troops into Ukraine or enforce a no-fly zone over its airspace for fear of escalating the war beyond the borders of Ukraine.

No one knows for sure what will motivate Putin to end the war in Ukraine peacefully. But there are some things that the West can do to hurt Putin and Russia, and hopefully bring the conflict to an end. Here are some of them:

Keep the Sanctions Going: The Western democracies have come together in unprecedented fashion to unleash severe economic sanctions on Russian, and their economy is hurting. The ruble has lost much of its value, interest rates have soared, their stock market has crashed, consumer goods are becoming scarce and the export markets are drying up for Russian products. The Russian central bank has been blocked from accessing much of its foreign currency reserves, Russian banks can’t perform routine financial transactions, and the assets of Putin and his associates have been frozen or seized around the world. Unfortunately, the sanctions have had a devastating impact on the average Russian citizen, but Putin and his oligarchs will survive. Putin will be able to keep his war machine going and have the ability to pay his cronies as long as Russia’s energy markets remain open. Western countries are reluctant to stop the flow of Russia oil and gas for fear of devastating their own economies. Spikes in natural gas and gasoline prices are already hurting consumers worldwide. The West has to convince Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries to increase the output of oil to minimize any damage due to a boycott of Russian energy.

Revisit the United Nations Charter: Russia should be kicked out of the United Nations, or at the very least, have its membership suspended pending the outcome of the current hostilities in Ukraine. The current UN Charter allows for the expulsion of any member for violations of the charter. Russian’s interference in foreign elections, support of authoritarian states, killing of civilians during the Chechen and Syrian Wars, and the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine clearly warrant Russian’s expulsion. A member state can only be expelled from the UN by recommendation of the Security Council. Since Russia has veto power in the Security Council, it is doubtful that Russia will ever be sanctioned, much less kicked out. The only answer to this dilemma would be to disband the United Nations and reconstitute it without Russia as a member.

International Criminal Court: The International Criminal Court has opened an investigation into possible war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine. It is hard to believe that an unprovoked attack on civilian targets resulting in the deaths of innocent people, doesn’t qualify as crimes against humanity. Russia is outside the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. But if Putin were found guilty it would damage his standing as a world leader, and he could be subject to arrest in a country that accepts the jurisdiction of the court.

NATO Unity: NATO needs to continue to relocate military equipment, supplies, and personnel to member countries that border the Ukraine. These include Poland, Hungary and Romania. All NATO member countries should bring their militaries to a heightened level of readiness. NATO should also prepare to support non-NATO countries, such as Georgia, Moldova, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, which could be in the path of future Russian aggression.

Support of Ukraine’s Neighbors: The United States and other NATO members should support Ukraine’s neighbors who are welcoming and supporting Ukrainian refugees. Over 1.7 million Ukrainians have fled to Poland, Hungary, Moldova and other countries to escape the violence. These countries need our financial, logistical and security support to aid in this humanitarian crisis.

Enforce the 1991 Minsk Agreement and 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances: In exchange for handing over its nuclear weapons to Russia, the United States, United Kingdom and Russia agreed to respect the sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine. Russia is in violation of these agreements. It is time for the United States and the United Kingdom to stand by their commitments to Ukraine. They have the legal and moral justification to use military force in defense of Ukraine. No one in their right mind wants the U.S. or the U.K. to go to war with Russia, but direct military assistance to Ukraine is necessary or it will lose its sovereignty to Russia.

Consequences of Inaction: If the West does not act swiftly and decisively in defense of Ukraine, there will be long term consequences to the peace and security of the world. If Putin’s illegal actions against Ukraine go unpunished, he will be emboldened. This could lead to military actions against other former Soviet Bloc countries to prevent them from aligning with the West. It could also threaten the security of NATO members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania which sit on Russia’s border.

Putin sees the global erosion of democracy as a way to bolster and legitimize his own authoritarian moves. If Putin is allowed to succeed in Ukraine it will embolden autocrats in Belarus, Syria, Venezuela, Nicaragua, North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Vladimir Putin won’t just leave Ukraine with his tail between his legs. The war will be a prolonged and bloody affair. These are early days and if Putin has his back against the wall, the West has to be prepared for the worst.

Should Ukraine be the sacrificial lamb for peace in Europe? No! This would only embolden Putin and other autocrats. It would also create a “false peace”, and the world would devolve into another “cold war”. We can’t let Putin pull the world into darkness. Russia needs to become part of the peaceful community of nations, and not hide behind the iron curtain of old.

The world can only hope that the crippling economic sanctions can cause enough civil unrest in Russia, and make enough oligarchs rethink their relationship to Putin, to remove him from office, or at the very least to get him to withdraw from Ukraine.

Let us all stand with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for showing the world grace under fire, and what true leadership looks like. Let us also stand with the Ukrainian people who have demonstrated to the world true courage and the real meaning of patriotism.

0 Comments

Would Ukraine be Better Off if Trump was President?

Putin's War.

Author

Archives

Categories