Armchair American Blog

Presidential Leadership and Donald Trump's Reelection Chances

10/29/2020

In 2016 Donald Trump ran for president as an outsider and disrupter. This helped him defeat Hilary Clinton, a Washington insider with over thirty years of baggage. According to exit polling during the 2016 presidential election, the most important quality identified by voters was that the candidate would bring change (https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/what-do-voters-want-confrontation-or-compassion). What are voters looking for this time? What qualities do voters look for in a presidential candidate, and what role does leadership play?

Leadership Qualities in a Good President: According to many historians, there are several leadership qualities found in good presidents (https://www.ushistory.org/gov/7e.asp). They include the following:

A strong vision for the country’s future.
Effective communication skills.
The courage to make unpopular decisions.
Crisis management skills.
Character and integrity.
Makes wise appointments.
Has an ability to work with Congress.

Leadership in Turbulent Times: We are certainly living through turbulent times. The coronavirus pandemic has killed or sickened millions of people, forced millions out of work, and placed a dark cloud over the economy. There are ongoing protests over racial injustice, and a widening political divide. But history shows us that America has lived through much more difficult times that required great leadership to see us through. No president was faced with a more difficult challenge than Abraham Lincoln who lead the country through a devastating civil war. Franklin Roosevelt came to power during the Great Depression and then lead the country through World War II. At moments of great challenge these presidents were guided by a sense of moral purpose, sought to heal divisions, and had to bring the country together to summon a common purpose.

Doris Kearns Goodwin explores presidential leadership in her book “Leadership: In Turbulent Times”. She discusses the following traits that served several presidents well during turbulent times:

Empathy: The ability to identify with other points of view.
Resilience: Learning from difficult moments and the ability to persevere.
Communication: Great presidents have been able to lead the nation with their words.
Openness: Great presidents grew in the job from listening to people with views different than their own.
Impulse Control: Sometimes knowing what not to say is as important as knowing what to say.

How do you think our current slate of presidential candidates rate on these leadership metrics? For a more recent example of a turbulent period of time surrounding a presidential election, I recommend the new film “The Trial of the Chicago 7”, available on Netflix. It recounts the 1968 riots in Chicago during the Democratic National Convention, and the court case that followed.

Why We Vote the Way We Do: Research into why voters choose one presidential candidate over another has been going on for many years. It should be no surprise that the single most powerful predictor of a person’s vote choice is his/her political party affiliation (https://pprg.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/10-The-psychology-of-voting.pdf). Party affiliation is usually based upon shared values and preferences on a handful of key policy issues.

The second predictor of who a voter will choose is based on the voter’s perception of the candidate’s personality traits (intelligence, knowledge, trustworthiness, and ability to be a strong leader). Since I am not affiliated with a political party, I lean towards this camp. This will be the 12th presidential election that I voted in. In the previous eleven, I voted for the Democratic candidate four times, the Republican five times, and a third-party candidate twice.

Trump vs Biden: Make no mistake, this election is a referendum on Donald Trump. Joe Biden is a secondary character in this drama. Will voters continue to respond to President Trump’s seemingly never-ending chaos and drama? Or will they be motivated by a more steady and stable form of leadership? According to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 64% of Republicans like Trump’s willingness to confront and challenge the establishment in government and to shake up business as usual. In contrast, 70% of Democrats prefer a leader, like Joe Biden, who will bring competence and compassion to the way the government operates.

Why I Don’t Believe Donald Trump Will Win Reelection: The president has not positioned himself to unify the country at a time when it is much needed. This country needs a beacon of hope due to the pandemic, economic uncertainty, and ongoing protests and anger over racial injustice. Donald Trump has used these issues to divide the country rather than to unite it. He has made no appeal to American optimism and aspirations.

According to a recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll, most registered voters believe that in the last four years bipartisanship, race relations, and crime have worsened. Sixty-two percent of registered voters list Donald Trump’s management of COVID-19 as a major failure. COVID cases are surging across the country, and the stock market is sensing a weakening economy as a result. The president has no prescription for either COVID-19 or the weakening economy. In fact, the president has not articulated any vision or policy proposals for the next four years. The American people really don’t know what Donald Trump believes. He will do and say whatever he thinks will get him reelected. Donald Trump has shown scorn for science, puts politics before people, and aligns himself with the worst elements of our society. He doesn’t know the damage he does by not denouncing QAnon and right-wing militias. I’m sure that he doesn’t really believe in what these groups espouse, just like he really doesn’t hold the views of the religious right. But they are part of his base, and that is all that matters.

Why I Didn’t Vote for Donald Trump: I didn’t vote for Donald Trump in 2016 because he had never held elected office before, he had no experience in governing, he had little foreign policy experience, and he lacked the temperament and character to lead this country. Donald Trump has now been president for the better part of four years (seems like forty), and my instincts were correct. Here is a list of my top reasons for not voting for Donald Trump in 2020 (but I could have listed many more):

I Don’t Respect the Man: I will never vote for a candidate that I don’t respect, regardless of their politics. Donald Trump is a great self-promoter, but he lacks the integrity, discipline, selflessness, and intellectual capability to be an effective leader, much less the President of the United States. He is a bully, a narcissist, has a history of abusing women, and belittles anyone who disagrees with him. I can’t believe anything that he says because he will say anything to deflect criticism and to promote himself.

Coronavirus Pandemic Mismanagement: Nobody blames the president for the pandemic, only his mishandling of it. Every action that he took, or didn’t take, was motivated by politics and not the health and safety of the citizens of this country. He second guessed the health experts, mocked the use of face masks, and taunted governors who put public health restrictions in place. He provided no leadership during a national health emergency. The president relegated responsibility to the states, setting off a disruptive and ineffective competition for scarce PPE and other critical supplies. This ad hoc approach left the country vulnerable, resulting in the needless loss of life.

It is true that the president placed travel restrictions between China and the U.S., followed by a European travel ban. But this led to chaos at the airports, and a flood of people coming back into the country before any public health controls could be put in place. Thousands of people coming back from China seeded the outbreak on the West Coast, and the thousands of people returning from European hotspots seeded the spread of the virus on the East Coast.
According to taped conversations with Bob Woodward, the president knew the dangers of the coronavirus, but chose to down play them. It is obvious that the president didn’t want to hurt his reelection chances and gambled with peoples’ lives. This was the deal breaker for me.

Lack of a Healthcare Plan: Donald Trump campaigned on repealing and replacing “Obamacare”. He had some success in dismantling portions of the plan, but he presented no replacement plan to Congress or to the American people. The president has done nothing to lower the cost of healthcare, and the cost of medical premiums is higher than ever. This is a hot button issue with me. It is reckless and incompetent to dismantle the safeguards offered by the existing plan when you have nothing to replace it with.

Economic Policy Failure: Donald Trump’s economic policy was geared almost entirely toward lifting growth in the short term, while largely ignoring the long-term dangers. Federal deficits ballooned in order to fund tax cuts which preferentially benefited the wealthy. If this country can’t show fiscal restraint during the boom times, how can it possibly weather the current and future economic downturns. This shows fiscal irresponsibility, and the Republican Party has lost all claims to being the party of fiscal conservatism.

Strained Overseas Alliances: Donald Trump has damaged America’s standing, influence, and power in the world. The president has terminated our relationship with the World Health Organization, withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Agreement, and chose a “go it alone” approach to the global pandemic. President Trump has antagonized NATO members over unilateral military actions, and decided to remove nearly 10,000 troops from Germany without conferring with other member states. Trump’s cozying up to dictators like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, while distancing himself from traditional allies, makes no strategic sense.

Stoking Fears About the 2020 Election: Who needs to worry about the Russians and Iranians interfering with the upcoming presidential election when you have President Trump doing his best to do just that. The president has warned that the election will be the most corrupt in history, without offering any proof. He has stated that the only way that he can lose is if the election is rigged. For months he has been claiming that mail-in ballots will lead to massive fraud. These unfounded claims are an attack on democracy itself and are unforgivable for a sitting president. This alone disqualifies Donald Trump from being reelected. He has done lasting damage to our democracy.

Americans are resilient, and this country will survive and thrive regardless of the outcome of the 2020 presidential election. Due to the millions of mail-in ballots, we may not know the winner for many days after the election. We all need to be patient and let the process work itself out. If Donald Trump wins the election, he will not tear up the Constitution and declare himself “President for Life”. If Joe Biden wins, he will not confiscate your guns, impound your gasoline powered vehicles, or turn the suburbs into public housing projects ruled by violent leftists.

I have never seen the American electorate more energized by an election, and this is encouraging. If our “experiment” in self-government is to last, more citizens need to be involved. The electorate needs to champion candidates, for all levels of government, who will truly represent the people, and not just their political party. Yes, we are living through turbulent times, but we have been here before. This country is at an inflection point. It’s time we take stock, learn from the lessons of the past, and move forward with the courage and determination to make this representative democracy work for the vast majority of Americans.

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Millions of Americans Have Voted, and So Have I

10/18/2020

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Large numbers of voters are not waiting until November 3, 2020 to cast their ballots. As of this date over 23 million Americans have voted, and so have I. Like me, most Americans had decided a long time ago who they’d vote for, at least for President. Maybe the pandemic restrictions have focused our minds more acutely on the election this year. Or maybe people are so sick of politics that they just want to vote, and move on with their lives. I fall into both camps. COVID-19 has forced states to change the way that elections are held, and have provided voters with more options. Let’s take a look at some of these new options and I will share my voting experience.

What’s the Rush to Vote?

Coronavirus Pandemic: The pandemic has disrupted many aspects of our daily lives, and to make matters worse, it is a presidential election year. Many voters are taking advantage of voting by mail to avoid having to vote in person. Early in-person voting is now available in many states to avoid long lines on November 3rd.
Presidential Rhetoric: For the past several months, President Trump has unleashed a barrage of disparaging remarks about the legitimacy of the election, particularly the use of mail-in ballots. He has gone so far as to say that the only way that he can lose is if the election is rigged. Strong stuff, and people have been paying attention. Maybe this rhetoric is backfiring on the president. Americans are casting their ballots early in record numbers, precisely because they fear if they wait too long their vote won’t be counted.
Doubts About the United States Postal Service: Postmaster General Louis DeJoy (a Trump appointee), implemented several cost cutting measures this summer at the United States Postal Service. This has resulted in delayed mail delivers all over the country. Was this done deliberately to discourage voting by mail? DeJoy denied these allegations at a U.S. Senate hearing. But some voters remain skeptical, prompting many to mail their ballots in early, or to avoid using the Post Office all together.
Election Fatigue: With many Americans sheltering in place for the good part of 2020, there has been more time to follow events on TV, social media, and in print. I can speak from personal experience that this has led to voter fatigue. You’d be hard pressed to find an undecided voter, at least for the presidential race. Voters want to cast their ballots so they don’t have to follow the election news as closely. This is probably a good thing for the collective mental health of all of us.

Early Voting: In order to facilitate voting during the pandemic, many states have taken steps to make it easier to register to vote, and have expanded ways to cast a ballot. Early voting of some sort is now available in 43 states and the District of Columbia. Options for early voting include mail-in voting/absentee voting, early in-person voting, and off hours voting, including weekends. For the specifics on each state follow this link: (https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/early-voting-in-state-elections.aspx).

Many states now allow voters to vote absentee without having to provide a reason. States like New York that require a valid reason to vote absentee, now consider fear of COVID-19 a valid reason for requesting an absentee ballot. Some states have sent absentee request forms to all registered voters. California, Nevada, and the District of Columbia have taken it a step further by sending mail-in ballots to all registered voters (https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-10-16/a-2020-success-story-early-voting-soars-even-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-rages-on).

Voters now have several options once they complete their mail-in ballot. They can use the United States Postal Service, official drop boxes set up by the counties and states, in-person drop off sites, and at polling places once in-person voting begins. Most states will accept mail-in ballots even after election day, as long as they are post marked on or before November 3, 2020. This varies from state to state so check with your local election officials if you are unsure. Here is a link for the specific rules for each state (https://www.usa.gov/election-office).

Reports indicate that Democrats have outvoted Republicans 2 to 1 so far in this 2020 Presidential election (https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54572790). Of these early voting Democrats, women and blacks are voting in high numbers. Republicans may be following President Trump’s lead by not trusting mail-in voting. Democrats may win the early vote, but they shouldn’t become over confident. Republicans will probably show up in large numbers at the polls on November 3, 2020.

Pre-processing Early Ballots: How states handle ballots received prior to election day varies widely. It ranges from verifying signatures, opening envelopes, and readying ballots for tabulation. Twenty-two states process mail-in and absentee ballots upon receipt. Another twenty-five states process them starting several weeks, to just hours before election day. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Alabama, and Mississippi are not allowed to process or count mail-in ballots before election day. The following link provides the specifics for each state: (https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx). If the election is close, the delay in processing mail-in and absentee ballots may result in a winner not being known for hours to days after the close of polls on November 3, 2020. Americans need to be patient and be prepared for a delayed election result.

My Voting Experience: I have known for many months how I would cast my vote in the Presidential election, but there were many down ballot candidates, propositions, and measures that needed further consideration. After spending the last several weeks watching news programs, listening to candidate forums (over Zoom of course), reading newspapers, and wading through dozens of election mailers, I sat down and filled out my mail-in ballot this week. In May, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order making all registered voters in the state automatically eligible to vote in the November 3, 2020 General Election by mail. Therefore, every voter in California was mailed a mail-in ballot. The process really got started last month. Here is the time line:

During the third week of September, I received a postcard from the County Registrar of Voters informing me that my official ballot was coming soon. The post card also provided instructions on how to sign up to track my ballot at every stage of the process. I am now registered through “WheresMyBallot.sos.ca.gov” which is a site powered by Ballot Trax. Voters who sign up for this service will be notified by email, phone, or text when their ballot is mailed out, when their returned ballot is received by the county election office, and when their ballot is accepted and counted.
On October 5th I received an email from Ballot Trax notifying me that my mail-in ballot had been mailed to me.
On October 7th I received my mail-in ballot.
On October 15th I hand delivered my completed ballot to the Registrar of Voters Office.

On October 17th I received an email notification from Ballot Trax that my ballot had been received by the county election office. So far so good!

If you use a drop box to deliver your ballot, make sure that it is officially sanctioned. In California, official drop boxes must include the county seal and be securely bolted to the ground. The use of unauthorized drop boxes to collect ballots is illegal in California. This has not stopped the GOP from placing unofficial drop boxes in several locations in Southern California. The motives for this are not exactly clear. Threatened with legal action, the GOP has stopped claiming that these drop boxes are official, and is restricting where they can be placed (https://www.npr.org/2020/10/16/923969669/california-eases-off-legal-threats-over-gop-unauthorized-ballot-drop-boxes). Counties publish the sites where sanctioned drop boxes are located. So check with county election officials if you are unsure.

When voting by mail it is important to get your ballot in as soon as possible. This leaves time to correct mistakes that sometimes occur, such as a signature that can’t be verified for whatever reason. The more people who vote early, the shorter the lines will be on election day, minimizing the spread of COVID-19. Getting your ballot in early will also ensure that your vote is included in the initial election results which will be reported shortly after the polls close on election day. The sooner the election results are known, the less opportunity there will be to spin a false narrative around the legitimacy of the election.

If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com.

Thanks,
Armchair American

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The Electoral College. Love it or Leave it?

10/12/2020

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Every four years we are reminded that the President and Vice-President of the United States are not democratically elected. They are elected by a group of 538 electors of the Electoral College. This November 3rd (or sooner if you vote by mail) when you cast your vote for President and Vice-President, you will actually be telling your State which candidate you want the State’s electors to vote for. What is the Electoral College? Does it still work as originally conceived, and what are the alternatives?

Electoral College: It is a body of 538 electors which is selected every four years from each State and Washington D.C., for the express purpose of electing the President and Vice-President of the United States. Every State gets one elector for each member of congress. California for example, has 2 Senators and 53 Representatives in the House of Representatives, and therefore has a total of 55 electors. Washington D.C. has a total of 3 electors.

As spelled out in the Constitution, each State chooses its own electors. The selection process differs by political party and by State. The National Association of Secretaries of State has compiled a list of the laws governing the selection of Presidential Electors for each State. (https://www.nass.org/sites/default/files/surveys/2020-10/summary-electoral-college-laws-100220.pdf). In all States, except Maine and Nebraska, the Presidential candidate with the most popular votes in that State, receives all of the State’s electors. In Maine and Nebraska, the electors are awarded to the popular vote winner of each congressional district, plus two electors are awarded to the winner of the State’s popular vote. In order to be elected President, the candidate must receive the majority of the electors, 270 or more.

Important Dates:

November 3, 2020: Election day. Once certified, the winning candidate’s State political party selects (if not previously done) the individuals who will be the electors.
December 14, 2020: The electors meet in their respective States and vote for President and Vice-President on separate ballots.
December 23, 2020: The electoral votes (the Certificates of Vote) must be received by the President of the Senate and the Archivist of the Office of the Federal Register.
January 6, 2021: The new Congress meets in joint session to count the electoral votes. The President of the Senate announces the results of the Electoral College vote.
January 20, 2021: Inauguration day.

Why We Have the Electoral College: Article 2, section 1 of the U.S. Constitution established that electors selected from each State, and not a direct vote of the people, would elect the President and Vice-President. The Constitution established the number of electors each State was entitled to, but left it up to the individual States how to select their electors. Originally the candidate with the second highest number of electoral votes would become the Vice-President. This was changed in 1804 with the 12th Amendment, which directed electors to cast separate votes for the President and Vice-President.

The drafters of the Constitution didn’t want a direct vote for President for several reasons. They needed to appease the less populated States, particularly those in the South who feared that a direct vote would disadvantage them. The drafters were also fearful that a direct election by all voters could be corrupted by foreign and other unscrupulous interests. It was also feared that the citizenry would not be well informed in order to make such an important selection to the highest office in the land. According to Alexander Hamilton, “A small number of persons, selected by their fellow citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations.” (https://guides.loc.gov/federalist-papers/text-61-70).

Reasons to Change the Electoral College: According to a recent Pew Research poll, a majority of U.S. adults favor replacing the Electoral College with a simple popular vote system for electing the President. (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/13/a-majority-of-americans-continue-to-favor-replacing-electoral-college-with-a-nationwide-popular-vote/). Below is a list of the main reasons to replace the current system:

The Process is Not Democratic: In the history of the United States, five Presidents have lost the popular vote but won the Presidency. They were John Quincy Adams (1824), Rutherford B. Hayes (1876), Benjamin Harrison (1888), George W. Bush (2000), and Donald Trump (2016). George W. Bush and Donald Trump are Republicans, so it is no surprise that the Republicans are less inclined to change the current system than are Democrats.

It Doesn’t Protect Against Unfit Candidates: This was one of the primary purposes for having the Electoral College in the first place, but it no longer works. When the Constitution was written there were no political parties, and electors chose the candidate most fit and capable to hold the highest office in the land. Today, electors’ votes are controlled by the States’ parties and the States’ election laws. They do not have the option to vote for whomever they please. In most instances the electors must vote for the candidate with the most popular votes in their State, otherwise they are considered to be a “faithless elector”. This summer the Supreme Court ruled unanimously that a State may require presidential electors to support the winner of the popular vote and punish or replace those who don’t. (https://www.npr.org/2020/07/06/885168480/supreme-court-rules-state-faithless-elector-laws-constitutional). If the individual electors have no say in assessing the suitability of a Presidential candidate, who does, the party? Not according to recent history.
Winner-Take-All Laws: Forty-eight States award all electoral votes to the candidate receiving the most popular votes in their State. The winner-take-all method of awarding electoral votes is not in the Constitution. This leads to candidates ignoring States where they have little chance of winning. As a result, campaigns concentrate their events and expenditures in just a handful of swing States, such as Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. This flies in the face of the argument that the Electoral College protects and gives voice to voters in the smallest States. Wyoming, Vermont, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Delaware, and Montana receive very little attention during Presidential campaigns. This should be no surprise since these seven States have a combined total of only 21 electoral votes.

Reasons to Keep the Electoral College:

The Constitution: To change or eliminate the Electoral College system would require an amendment to the Constitution. The hurdles are so high, and the country is so politically polarized, that this is not going to happen anytime soon. Since the Republicans have benefited from the system twice in the past twenty years, they are not about to change it.
Bestows Legitimacy to the Winner: Under the current system, the candidate with the majority of electoral votes (270 or more), wins the election. Under a popular vote system, the candidate with the most votes wins the election, even if they receive less than 50% of the votes cast. In the election of 1992, Bill Clinton received only 43% of the popular votes because of the strong showing by third-party candidate Ross Perot. But Bill Clinton received the majority of electoral votes, giving legitimacy to his Presidency. In our current winner-take-all system, it is very difficult for third party candidates to receive electoral votes. In a popular vote system, several strong third-party candidates could pull a significant number of votes away from the Democrat and Republican candidates. Would a simple plurality of the votes instill legitimacy on the new President? What if the plurality was only 30%? Would we need some kind of “rank choice” voting, or a runoff election to get a winner above a certain threshold? These are important questions to consider before doing away with the Electoral College. But giving more voice to third-party candidates, and breaking up the duopoly of Democrats and Republicans would not necessarily be a bad thing.

The National Popular Vote: Fixing the current system through a Constitutional amendment is a non-starter in the present political climate. Is there a non-Constitutional change that could achieve the same outcome as eliminating the Electoral College? The answer is yes, and a movement is already underway to do just that. The “National Popular Vote” is an organization established, not to eliminate the Electoral College, but to effectively neutralize it. The premise is rather simple. If enough States agree to pledge all of their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote, that candidate will win the Presidency, effectively side-stepping the Electoral College. When enacted by enough States with a combined electoral vote count of 270 or higher, the National Popular Vote interstate compact will be established and go into effect. Since 2006, the National Popular Vote bill has been enacted by fifteen States and Washington D.C., representing 196 electoral votes. (https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/). This system would be more democratic in ensuring that every voter, in every State, has a direct vote in electing the President and Vice-President of the United States.

With the 2020 Presidential election just three weeks away, I can’t think of a better time to review just how we elect our President, and to consider all the ramifications surrounding the process. The Electoral College has some pluses and minuses, but does it serve the best interests of the American people? I certainly don’t think that it functions as originally intended. The concentration of power in a few Northern States is no longer a problem. The selection of qualified Presidential Electors to weed out unsuitable candidates is an antiquated notion. In the age of the internet and mass media, we no longer have to rely upon direct contact with a candidate to hear their message. A national popular vote system would be more democratic and give voice to a more diverse group of candidates. The Democrat and Republican parties have not served this nation well over the past several decades. I seriously think that it’s time for some fresh ideas and fresh faces to confront the challenges ahead.

If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com.

Thanks,
Armchair American

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Is Joe Biden a Socialist?

10/6/2020

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President Trump and the Republican Party are doing their best to label Joe Biden as a socialist. This has become a prominent message coming out of the Trump campaign. Donald Trump has called Joe Biden a “Trojan horse for socialism”, and Biden’s “socialist agenda” was the republican’s favorite boogeyman at last summer’s convention. So, is Joe Biden intent upon unleashing a socialist agenda, bringing down capitalism and altering the American way of life? It all depends on your definition of socialism. Let’s take a closer look at socialism and whether or not Joe Biden’s agenda fits the definition.

Socialism: Various forms of socialism have been around for centuries. Socialism as it is now understood, emerged in response to the extreme economic and social changes experienced by the working class during the Industrial Revolution. Wealth disparities grew and working conditions deteriorated during this period.

Socialism is an economic and political system based on public ownership of the means of production, which includes the machinery, tools, factories, and natural resources to produce the goods required by society.(https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/socialism.asp). Under socialism, individuals can still own property, but industrial production, natural resources, and infrastructure are communally owned and managed by a democratically elected government (the exception being communist countries that have authoritarian central governments). Any surplus or profit from these communally owned resources benefit the citizens.

In a pure socialist system, all property is communally owned, a strong central government controls the economic production of goods and services, and provides citizens with their basic necessities including food, housing, medical care and education. The government essentially redistributes wealth and narrows the gap between rich and poor. There are no modern-day countries that have a pure socialist system. Cuba and China have strong elements of socialist market economies. These are actually mixed economies, where private enterprise and free markets are contributing more each year to the overall economic output. In China, privately owned companies generate from 33% to 70% of the GDP. In Cuba approximately 20% of the workforce is engaged in private enterprise. China is thriving principally because of its embrace of capitalism and the development of a market-based economy. Countries such as Venezuela and North Korea, which cling to their stringent socialist models, are economic failures and their citizens are suffering mightily.

Most countries have mixed economies which contain some degree of capitalism and a number of socialist policies. The United States has a capitalist economy, controlled by government regulation, and backed up by entitlement programs. Free public education, Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare are all considered socialist programs. When enacted, these programs were considered very controversial, and there was concern that they would lead the country down the road to socialism. But can you imagine doing away with these programs today?

Social Democracy: Many consider Norway, Sweden, and Denmark to be socialist countries, but they are not. They are social democracies. Social democracies have free market economies paired with high taxes to support generous government entitlement programs. Individuals and corporations own a significant portion of the capital and means of production. Democratically elected governments redistribute wealth through high levels of taxation and strict regulations on labor and capital. In return for high taxes, most citizens are entitled to free education (through university), universal healthcare, subsidized childcare, subsidized housing (in some cases) and generous pensions. This system works well in the Scandinavian countries because there is a high level of trust in the government and government institutions. Distrust of the government in the United States is high, and therefore most citizens take a dim view of high taxes and wealth redistribution.

Joe Biden’s Policy Proposals: I view Joe Biden as a moderate democrat. In an effort to unify the party he has had to move further to the left to appease some of the progressives (Bernie Sanders). Some of Biden’s policy proposals call for big spending. So does that make him a socialist? Not according to the previous discussion on socialism. Let’s examine some of Joe Biden’s proposals that the republicans claim will lead us down the road to socialism:

Healthcare: Contrary to what had been said during the Republican National Convention, Joe Biden does not support “Medicare for All”. This proposal would eliminate private health insurance companies in favor of a single-payer system. Biden’s plan focuses on strengthening “Obamacare”, maintaining employer-based and private insurance, and developing a new, more affordable public option. The public option will be administered by Medicare and be available to all Americans. Biden’s plan is by no means British style socialized medicine. Far from it. If you want an example of socialized medicine closer to home, take a look at the Veteran’s Health Administration, where all hospitals and clinics are government owned, and most of the employees work for the government. (www.va.gov).

Empower Workers: The Biden plan seeks to encourage and incentivize unionization and collective bargaining, ban noncompete rules, and end wage secrecy rules. Biden also proposes to increase the federal minimum wage from $7.25 to $15.00/hour (it is unclear over what period of time). Many states have already begun to increase minimum wages beyond the federal minimum.
“Made in All America” by American Workers: This is a $700 billion procurement and investment program over four years.
- $400B is to procure American products and services, improve supply chains for critical products, and support small businesses.
- $300B is to invest in research and development and breakthrough technologies, such as electric vehicle batteries, 5G, high tech materials, and artificial intelligence.
Investments in Education:
- Tuition free public colleges and universities for all families with incomes below $125,000.
- Undergraduate Federal Student Loan support: payments begin once the recipient begins making over $25,000/year, and then at a rate of 5% of discretionary income.
- $10,000/year of student loan forgiveness for up to five years for those who take critical public service jobs.
- Provide all 3- and 4-year-olds access to free, high quality pre-kindergarten education.
Infrastructure Spending: Biden proposes to spend close to $2 trillion dollars on much needed infrastructure projects. These include upgrades to bridges, roadways, water systems, power grids, building upgrades, new housing and green energy projects.

Tax Proposal: Joe Biden plans to pay for these proposals by raising 3.35-3.67 trillion dollars over a decade, through tax reform. This plan will increase taxes on corporations and individuals making over $400,000/year. Here are some of the highlights of Biden’s tax proposal:

The top corporate tax rate will increase from 21% to 28%.
The 12.4% Social Security tax will be levied on all incomes above $400,000. Currently only incomes up to $137,700 are subject to the Social Security tax.
The capital gains tax rate for those who earn over one million dollars will be the same as the tax on ordinary wages.
The top individual tax rate will increase to 39.6%.
There will be a minimum 21% tax rate on all foreign earnings by U.S. companies.

A comprehensive list of all of Joe Biden’s policy proposals can be viewed at his website: (https://joebiden.com/joes-vision/#).

Many of Joe Biden’s policy proposals look like big government tax and spend programs. But on closer inspection they are really long overdue investments in America. Both political parties have argued that a big infrastructure bill is needed. I can think of no greater investment in our future than in education. Giving people the tools that they need to work and thrive makes them less dependent on the government, not more. In my view, smart investments in people, infrastructure, and American jobs, will pay dividends well into the future. Spending on small businesses, private sector jobs, green technology, and required infrastructure upgrades, is anything but socialism.

Make no mistake, it doesn’t matter which political party is in office, government spending is massive and it will only get larger. The political parties just have different priorities for that spending. Even during a roaring economy, annual budget deficits under Donald Trump reached one trillion dollars, and that was prior to the start of the pandemic. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2020/02/01/trumps-deficits-are-racing-past-obamas/#380f76348199). At least Joe Biden is prepared to increase taxes to pay for his budget priorities. The republicans fool themselves into thinking that tax cuts will “starve the beast” and force lower government spending. In reality, the deficits and debt march steadily higher. High budget deficits to support low taxes might be an effective reelection strategy, but it is a disastrous long-term strategy. The president has already passed trillions of dollars in legislation to get the crippled economy going again, and he will pass legislation to spend trillions more in the coming weeks. That doesn’t sound like a laissez-faire, free market economy to me. So be careful who you label “socialist” Mr. President.

Joe Biden’s overall policy package is not socialist. It calls for a lot of government spending, but it is mostly offset by eliminating President Trump’s tax reductions of 2017. Many socialist democracies around the world are thriving because they have found a balance between high taxes and the services that the citizens want. This country wants the benefits of a social democracy but is unwilling to pay for them. At least the democrats are more honest about it than are the republicans.

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Thanks,
Armchair American

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