Putin's War.

On February 25, 2022 Russia’s President Vladimir Putin unleashed the largest military operation in Europe since World War II. Putin’s unprovoked invasion of the sovereign country of Ukraine shows what lengths he will go to in an attempt to rectify grievances, both real and imagined. Attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine show his disdain for human life. The shelling of nuclear installations demonstrates Putin’s disregard for the norms of a civilized nation, not to mention his indifference to unleashing toxic materials into the environment. The arrest of thousands of his fellow citizens who oppose him, and the suppression of the free press and social media within Russia, show his distrust and disdain for his own citizens. Putin’s initiation of an illegal war in the face of worldwide condemnation, shows his indifference to the international community. Putin will stop at nothing to achieve his aims, as demonstrated by his threat to use nuclear weapons against those who oppose him. For the sake of Ukraine, peace in Europe, and respect for democratic principles around the world, Putin must be stopped. 

​What Does Putin Hope to Gain: Putin has admitted to Western leaders that he will stop at nothing to achieve his goals in Ukraine, and the West should believe him. So, what are his goals? Simply put, to prevent Ukraine from ever joining any Western alliance which opposes Russia. Putin will not stop until he has overthrown Ukraine’s government headed by democratically elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, and replaced it with a puppet regime. Ultimately Putin hopes to annex the entire country of Ukraine, as he did with the Crimea in 2014, which is now part of Russia.

​What Motivated Putin to Invade Ukraine: No one knows for sure what motivated Putin to invade his peaceful neighbor, which poses no threat to Russia.  By all accounts, Putin has become isolated and paranoid in recent years, and this has only been compounded by the COVID pandemic.  Putin claims that Russia’s invasion was to free Ukraine from oppression and “cleansed of the Nazis”, and to bring to justice “those who committed numerous bloody crimes against civilians”. This is nonsensical of course. You would think that the former KBG agent could come with something better than that.
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Many observers point to three major motivations behind Putin’s military assault on Ukraine: grievances stemming from the collapse of the Soviet Union, unchecked expansion by NATO resulting in security concerns, and protection of Russia’s energy markets  (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/25/magazine/russia-united-states-world-politics.html).

Grievances: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Putin has watched Russia’s prestige and influence dwindle on the global stage. Putin described the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. To Putin, the two world wars and the Holocaust were lesser events. Russia expected to be treated as an equal partner in world affairs with the United States, with the right to retain influence over countries in the former Soviet Bloc. But with Russia in chaos, this was not to be.

Security Issues: Putin claims that the United States reneged on its pledge not to expand NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) to countries bordering Russia. This pledge was never made (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/why-nato-and-ukraine-are-a-flash-point-with-russia-30-after-the-end-of-the-cold-war).

Russia has no right to dictate NATO’s membership. According to its chapter, NATO membership is open to “any other European state in a position to further the principles of this Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic area”   (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm). Since the end of the cold war, fourteen former Soviet Bloc countries have joined NATO, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have borders with Russia.

Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but the two entities did enter into a Comprehensive Assistance Package in 2016 (https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2016_09/20160920_160920-compreh-ass-package-ukra.pdf).

NATO has made overtures to both Georgia and Ukraine, which is a line in the sand for Putin. President Zelensky of Ukraine has stated his intentions to join NATO as well as the European Union. This sealed his fate in the mind of Putin.

Protecting Russia’s Energy Sector: Oil and gas account for 60% of Russia’s export revenue and about 40% of its total budget expenditures. Europe is a huge natural gas market for Russia, and an inability to access this market threatens its economic security. Russia relies on a pipeline through Belarus and another through Ukraine to reach European markets. If Ukraine aligns with the West through the EU (European Union) or NATO, this threatens Russian’s pipelines and its economic stability.

Petro dollars keep Putin in power, and he has calculated that the West would not threaten the flow of Russian oil and gas for fear of hurting their own economies. So far Putin’s calculation has proven correct. 

​Actions the West Should Take: Ukraine is one of the most impoverished countries in Europe. Despite the heroism and resolve of its people, Ukraine has no chance of repelling the military might of Russia and the resolve of Vladimir Putin. NATO won’t send combat troops into Ukraine or enforce a no-fly zone over its airspace for fear of escalating the war beyond the borders of Ukraine.
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No one knows for sure what will motivate Putin to end the war in Ukraine peacefully. But there are some things that the West can do to hurt Putin and Russia, and hopefully bring the conflict to an end. Here are some of them:

• ​Keep the Sanctions Going: The Western democracies have come together in unprecedented fashion to unleash severe economic sanctions on Russian, and their economy is hurting. The ruble has lost much of its value, interest rates have soared, their stock market has crashed, consumer goods are becoming scarce and the export markets are drying up for Russian products. The Russian central bank has been blocked from accessing much of its foreign currency reserves, Russian banks can’t perform routine financial transactions, and the assets of Putin and his associates have been frozen or seized around the world.  Unfortunately, the sanctions have had a devastating impact on the average Russian citizen, but Putin and his oligarchs will survive. Putin will be able to keep his war machine going and have the ability to pay his cronies as long as Russia’s energy markets remain open. Western countries are reluctant to stop the flow of Russia oil and gas for fear of devastating their own economies. Spikes in natural gas and gasoline prices are already hurting consumers worldwide. The West has to convince Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries to increase the output of oil to minimize any damage due to a boycott of Russian energy.   

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• Revisit the United Nations Charter: Russia should be kicked out of the United Nations, or at the very least, have its membership suspended pending the outcome of the current hostilities in Ukraine. The current UN Charter allows for the expulsion of any member for violations of the charter. Russian’s interference in foreign elections, support of authoritarian states, killing of civilians during the Chechen and Syrian Wars, and the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine clearly warrant Russian’s expulsion. A member state can only be expelled from the UN by recommendation of the Security Council. Since Russia has veto power in the Security Council, it is doubtful that Russia will ever be sanctioned, much less kicked out. The only answer to this dilemma would be to disband the United Nations and reconstitute it without Russia as a member. 

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• International Criminal Court: The International Criminal Court has opened an investigation into possible war crimes and crimes against humanity in Ukraine. It is hard to believe that an unprovoked attack on civilian targets resulting in the deaths of innocent people, doesn’t qualify as crimes against humanity. Russia is outside the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. But if Putin were found guilty it would damage his standing as a world leader, and he could be subject to arrest in a country that accepts the jurisdiction of the court.

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• NATO Unity: NATO needs to continue to relocate military equipment, supplies, and personnel to member countries that border the Ukraine. These include Poland, Hungary and Romania. All NATO member countries should bring their militaries to a heightened level of readiness. NATO should also prepare to support non-NATO countries, such as Georgia, Moldova, and Bosnia-Herzegovina, which could be in the path of future Russian aggression.

• Support of Ukraine’s Neighbors: The United States and other NATO members should support Ukraine’s neighbors who are welcoming and supporting Ukrainian refugees. Over 1.7 million Ukrainians have fled to Poland, Hungary, Moldova and other countries to escape the violence. These countries need our financial, logistical and security support to aid in this humanitarian crisis.​

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• Enforce the 1991 Minsk Agreement and 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances: In exchange for handing over its nuclear weapons to Russia, the United States, United Kingdom and Russia agreed to respect the sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine. Russia is in violation of these agreements. It is time for the United States and the United Kingdom to stand by their commitments to Ukraine.  They have the legal and moral justification to use military force in defense of Ukraine. No one in their right mind wants the U.S. or the U.K. to go to war with Russia, but direct military assistance to Ukraine is necessary or it will lose its sovereignty to Russia.

Consequences of Inaction: If the West does not act swiftly and decisively in defense of Ukraine, there will be long term consequences to the peace and security of the world. If Putin’s illegal actions against Ukraine go unpunished, he will be emboldened. This could lead to military actions against other former Soviet Bloc countries to prevent them from aligning with the West. It could also threaten the security of NATO members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania which sit on Russia’s border.

Putin sees the global erosion of democracy as a way to bolster and legitimize his own authoritarian moves. If Putin is allowed to succeed in Ukraine it will embolden autocrats in Belarus, Syria, Venezuela, Nicaragua, North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Vladimir Putin won’t just leave Ukraine with his tail between his legs. The war will be a prolonged and bloody affair. These are early days and if Putin has his back against the wall, the West has to be prepared for the worst.
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Should Ukraine be the sacrificial lamb for peace in Europe? No! This would only embolden Putin and other autocrats. It would also create a “false peace”, and the world would devolve into another “cold war”. We can’t let Putin pull the world into darkness.  Russia needs to become part of the peaceful community of nations, and not hide behind the iron curtain of old.

​The world can only hope that the crippling economic sanctions can cause enough civil unrest in Russia, and make enough oligarchs rethink their relationship to Putin, to remove him from office, or at the very least to get him to withdraw from Ukraine.

​Let us all stand with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for showing the world grace under fire, and what true leadership looks like. Let us also stand with the Ukrainian people who have demonstrated to the world true courage and the real meaning of patriotism.

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Thanks,
Armchair American