Would Ukraine be Better Off if Trump was President?

​Donald Trump believes that if he was still President the war in Ukraine would be much different, and may not have occurred at all. He is certainly entitled to his opinion. Trump’s interactions with Ukraine while he was in office, and his relations to Vladimir Putin tell a different story.  Trump has not been shy about expressing his opinions since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. So, it is not difficult to conjecture about the war in Ukraine under a Trump Administration. Donald Trump’s views on the end of the Afghanistan war, his interactions with Ukrainian President Zelensky, his lack of support for NATO, and his relationship to Putin, tell a very different story than what is actually unfolding.

Withdrawal from Afghanistan: Donald Trump and Republican leaders have been crowing in recent weeks that President Biden's “abrupt” end to the Afghanistan War showed American weakness and emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine. There is no evidence of this, and is ludicrous coming from Donald Trump.

The truth is, the Trump Administration signed an agreement with the Taliban on February 29, 2020 for the complete withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan by May 2021. This agreement achieved no meaningful commitments from the Taliban, and essentially cut out the U.S. supported Afghanistan Government in Kabul. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Trump was patting himself on the back for this agreement. In one Twitter post he stated “I started the process, all the troops are coming home, they (Biden) couldn’t stop the process”. On an April 18, 2021 post to his website, Trump stated “Getting out of Afghanistan is a wonderful and positive thing to do. I planned to withdraw on May 1”. He went further by criticizing President Biden for waiting until September 11, 2021 to withdraw the troops from Afghanistan.  
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Putin has been planning to invade Ukraine and bring it under his orbit for many years. He showed his hand with the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Later that same year, Russian-backed separatists seized the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine by force. Even though the American withdrawal from Afghanistan was a botched affair, it had nothing to do with Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Ostensibly Trump would have executed the withdrawal from Afghanistan with precision, leaving no doubt about the military might of the United States, and giving pause to every world leader who opposed that might.

Donald Trump’s Relationship to Ukraine: Donald Trump’s relationship to Ukraine during his Presidency can best be described as scandalous. Trump attempted to get the government of Ukraine to open an investigation into the activities of candidate Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. During a phone call in 2019 to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump threatened to withhold nearly $400 million in Congressionally authorized military aid if he didn’t do Trump this favor.  Trump also promised President Zelensky the honor of a White House visit if other favors were delivered. These quid pro quos damaged the prestige of the White House, and did little to solidify U.S-Ukraine relations. This appalling episode made President Zelensky look foolish, made Ukraine look like a tool of the West, and led to the first impeachment of Donald Trump.
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It is hard to believe that if Donald Trump was still President he would be Ukraine’s champion. Afterall, what would be in it for him?

Donald Trump’s Relationship to Vladimir Putin: As Russian tanks and troops amassed on the borders of Ukraine, Donald Trump called Putin a genius, very smart, and savvy. Once the invasion began, Trump called the Biden Administration weak, and member states of NATO “not so smart”. But in recent days, as the world turned against Putin and his invasion of Ukraine, Trump has done an about-face. Now “the Russian attack on Ukraine is appalling. It is an outrage, and an atrocity that should never have been allowed to occur”.
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The billion-dollar question is whether a President Trump would support, or at least turn a blind eye to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Let’s take a look at Trump’s words and deeds while in office, as a guidepost.
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Russia invaded and then annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. This led to international condemnation and sanctions on Russia. It also led to the expulsion of Russia from the Group of Eight (G8), an inter-governmental political forum which includes France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. During a G7 meeting in 2018, Trump called for Russia to be reinstated, and questioned leaders as to why they sided with Ukraine over Russia. Afterall, Trump told the other leaders, “Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries in the world”. 

​At a summit meeting with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in the summer of 2018, Trump sided with Russia against his own U.S. intelligence agencies. At the summit, Trump disavowed the findings of U.S. intelligence agencies which had concluded that Russia had indeed interfered in the 2016 elections. Trump stated during a press conference that he believed Putin, who had told him that Russia had not meddled in the U.S. elections. Does this sound like a leader who would back Ukraine over Russia? 

​The NATO Alliance: The member states of NATO have come together swiftly and decisively to aid Ukraine against Russian aggression. We haven’t witnessed this much unity in NATO since the attacks on 9/11. The Swedes and Fins are considering joining NATO. Even Germany has been shaken from its pacifist stance to dramatically increase military spending and supply Ukraine with defensive weapons and supplies.

Of course, Donald Trump takes credit for all of this. He stated on February 28 “There would be no NATO if I didn’t act strongly and swiftly”. But according to recent reports in The Washington Post and The New York Times, Trump told his senior administration officials on several occasions that he wanted to withdraw from the NATO alliance.  In 2020 Trump ordered the withdrawal of about a third of U.S. troops stationed in Germany.

If Trump had won the 2020 election it is possible that he would have followed through on his threats to withdraw from NATO. That would have severely weakened and undermined the alliance and played right into the hands of Vladimir Putin. According to Retired Admiral James G. Stavrids, the former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, an American withdrawal from NATO would be “a geopolitical mistake of epic proportion”.

What Trump doesn’t realize, is that his threats to withdraw from NATO undermined the alliance and actually emboldened Putin. What would Ukraine’s fate be if not for NATO? It would end up being annexed by Russia, and Russia would be on its way to recreating the U.S.S.R. President Biden has taken the lead on sanctioning Russia, providing military aid to Ukraine, and uniting the NATO alliance.  

​Donald Trump is using revisionism and twisted logic to paint himself as a friend to Ukraine and foe to Vladimir Putin. Just as with Vladimir Putin’s tortured justifications for invading Ukraine, the American people and the world will not be fooled. You can draw your own conclusions about the fate of Ukraine, and indeed the fate of the world, if Donald Trump was still President. But I for one am glad that Joe Biden is our President during this time of international conflict. The world would not be a safer place if one more leader of questionable emotional stability, had access to nuclear weapons. 

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Thanks,
Armchair American