Armchair American Blog

What is Donald Trump's Appeal to Voters?

1/19/2024

Without a doubt Donald Trump has been the most disruptive and controversial figure in American politics in my lifetime. He has turned the Republican Party on its head and now is its de facto leader. Trump can say and do almost anything with impunity, and his base of support only grows. With his overwhelming victory in the Iowa caucuses this week, his nomination as the 2024 Republican Presidential candidate is all but certain. As someone who has never voted for Trump, it is difficult for me to understand his appeal. But rather than bury my head in the sand, I think the better approach is to try and understand what is behind his popularity among the Republican faithful.

I’ve read dozens of news reports, watched hours of cable and network news programs, and listened to countless podcasts in order to make some sense of Trump’s appeal. It will probably take years of research and reflection by historians, psychologists, and scholars to get the full read on Trump’s appeal to voters, but I will weigh in with my own views.

The reasons that Trump’s supporters give for backing him can be categorized into three broad categories. They are policy issues, personality, and politics. Let’s take a closer look at each one of these:

Southern Border with Mexico: Forty percent of caucus-goers in Iowa identified illegal immigration across the border with Mexico as a top concern. Under Trump the border was seen as secure, and the border wall would have made it more so. Today we have an “open border” policy, according to many Republicans, with illegals entering the country by the tens of thousands. Trump is seen as having secured the border once, and therefore can do it again.

Foreign Conflicts: Many of Trump’s supporters are anxious about foreign conflicts, and are resistant to sending more aid to Ukraine. To them, Trump is the candidate who would project strength abroad during a time of two major wars and a growing threat from China. They believe Trump when he tells them, “For four straight years I kept America safe, I kept Israel safe, I kept Ukraine safe, and I kept the entire world safe.”

Economy: A common refrain among his supporters is that the economy was much better under Trump. They often site the high food and gas prices brought about by President Biden’s policies.

Social/Cultural Issues: As the Democrat Party has moved left on cultural issues, conservatives in the Republican Party, particularly evangelical Christians, have pushed back. The promotion of abortion rights and LGBTQ+ rights goes against the religious views of many conservatives, and they see it as an affront to their religious liberty. Donald Trump is seen as a flawed man in the eyes of many of his conservative supporters. But he has a proven track record of placing three conservative judges on the Supreme Court, which overturned Roe v. Wade. That was the Holy Grail of accomplishments for conservatives, one that no other Republican candidate can match. According to Bob Vander Plaats of the Christian group The Family Leader, “Can God use Donald Trump to accomplish good things? Yes, he’s always used flawed people to accomplish good things for him.”

Trump’s Personality: Donald Trump is a force of nature and a natural showman. He is entertaining and charismatic; not bad traits to have for a politician.

The thing that surprised me, and this came up over and over in interviews with his supporters, was that Trump, unlike any of his opponents, has the strength to get things done. Trump often portrays himself as a strongman, being the only one strong enough to keep America peaceful and prosperous in a dangerous world. To many, this is his most important quality that ties it all together for them. According to his supporters, Trump’s strength will garner both fear and respect in foreign affairs and allow him to get things done in this country.

Many of Trump’s utterances are often vulgar, petty, or just not well thought out. But his supporters view this is as a sign of his authenticity. They like the fact that he speaks without a filter, which shows that he is not afraid to speak his mind. His belittling and often juvenile remarks are thought to be a sign of his honesty and his courage, and feed into his image as a strongman.

Trump’s supporters view the country as broken, needing an upheaval or major disruption to fix it. Trump is seen as the disruptor- in- chief, with the strength to overcome any challenge.

Politics: Unlike any other politician in America today, Trump has the ability to connect with his supporters. No other politician comes close to garnering the level of enthusiasm among his/her supporters. His supporters believe that they have been overlooked by establishment politicians, but Trump hears them and speaks for them.

Trump’s mountain of legal troubles is seen as a political prosecution in an attempt to silence him, and by extension his supporters. In a typical refrain to supporters recently, Trump said, “You and I have been in this battle side-by-side, together, and we have been taking on the entire corrupt system in Washington like no one has ever done before. The political establishment and global elites are at war with us-we have to fight.”

Rather than hurting him, the civil suits in New York and the four criminal indictments brought against Trump have only increased his support among the Republican base. These cases have become part of his campaign and he has raised millions of dollars with each new charge. Trump’s poll numbers started to increase after his first indictment in New York for paying hush money to Stormy Daniels. Days after the indictment his support among likely Republican voters surpassed 50% in national polls, and they have risen with each new indictment.

The ruling in Colorado to block Trump from its primary ballot increased Republican fury to a fever pitch over what they viewed as a further attempt to weaponize the courts and justice system against Trump. His supporters take it personally. An attack against Trump is an attack against them.

Did Trump’s adversaries overplay their hand? Whether they did or didn’t, it certainly had the opposite effect of silencing him. As one Trump supporter put it, “I prefer Trump because Democrats are trying to find any way they can to jail him. What are they afraid of?” Trump’s supporters have circled the wagons around him and his candidacy, virtually blocking out any other candidates.

Say what you will about Donald Trump, he is a master politician, even though he claims to be a businessman, not a politician. Attacks against Trump from both within and without the Republican Party are seen as proof of a corrupt and broken system, by his supporters.

Trump’s qualities that I view as weaknesses are viewed by his supporters as part of his allure and strength. His supporters truly believe that the problems facing the country, both home and abroad, would never have happened if Trump were still president. Trump has convinced them that his policies made America great in the past, and he can do it again. If Donald Trump is truly perceived to be the only Republican with the strength to lead the country through tough times, it should be no surprise that so many caucus and primary voters seem reluctant to waste their votes on a lesser candidate.

If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: [email protected].

Thanks,
Armchair American

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Fasten Your Seatbelts; 2024 is Going to be a Bumpy Year!

1/5/2024

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The new year is starting off much like it ended, with a lot of negative news. The mood in the country seems to be gloomy, and nobody seems enthusiastic about the presidential election which will consume much of the year. I’m not immune to all of the gloom and doom. When I look back on what I wrote about in 2023, it was mostly about the chaos in Congress, foreign wars, and the presidential candidates nobody seems to want. But it is time to shake off the gloom and look beyond the headlines, because 2023 was actually an amazing year.

Positives from 2023: Negative and tragic news tend to grab all of the headlines. But if you dig a little deeper, there were so many positive things that occurred in 2023. Here are but a few:

The CDC and World Health Organization declared an end to the COVID-19 pandemic in May.
The child mortality rates were the lowest ever recorded.
For the first time in history, women were allowed to vote in every country that hold elections.
More people in the world gained access to clean water and electricity than ever before.
The gender pay gap reached an all-time low.
Investments in renewable energy have never been higher.
Advances in mRNA technology, gene editing and artificial intelligence have resulted in medical breakthroughs which bring us closer to curing Alzheimer’s disease, sickle cell disease, several types of cancer, and mitigating malaria.
Inflation cooled dramatically and the economy didn’t fall into recession.
Artificial Intelligence went mainstream. This could be a good thing or a bad thing.
Taylor Swift and Beyoncé brought joy to millions, young and old.
California ended the year drought free.

Looking Ahead to 2024: There will be a lot of ups and downs this year. In ten short months our country will hold another presidential election. For better or for worse this will dominate the news cycle. But there is a lot going on closer to home and across the world that deserves our attention. In the near-term many of these issues seem downright depressing, but maybe 2024 will surprise us with some positive outcomes. Here are some of the issues that I will be following:

Statewide: The state of California is facing many challenges. Illegal immigration and homelessness are among the biggest. But the one that I will be watching closely is the massive $68 billion budget deficit facing the state. This is mostly due to severe revenue declines (lower tax collections) in 2022-2023. Major budget cuts, tapping into the rainy-day fund, and creative financing will all be on the table. Governor Gavin Newsom’s political future will rest on his ability to put the state’s fiscal house in order.

Nationally:

Homelessness: This seems to be an intractable problem across many cities and states. We know that the problem arises from the lack of affordable housing, as well as the lack of treatment facilities for those suffering from mental illness and addiction disorders. Billions of dollars are being spent at the state and local levels every year. But it seems to me that most of the money goes to feeding the bureaucracy that has been built up to address the homeliness problem. Hopefully this year we will see some real progress made in overcoming this important societal issue.
Disruption of Public Meetings: In many communities across the country public meetings have become very contentious, with individuals threatening officials and using hate speech. Much of this has come during the public comment sections of meetings which allow people to participate virtually. Disruptive behavior from members of the public has increased in recent years as the political divide in our country has widened. The county where I live now requires public comments during meetings to be made in person. Pre-screening of individuals and the text of their comments is probably not far off. Free speech should not be stifled. But disruptive behavior at public meetings and hate speech may result in restrictions placed on this important right.

Federal Spending Bills: Time is running out on Congress to pass new spending bills to avoid a government shutdown. The first of the two stop-gap spending bills signed into law in November expires on January 19, and the second bill expires on February 2. This will be a major test for new House Speaker Mike Johnson.

Border Crisis: U.S. Border Patrol agents took into custody over 225,000 migrants illegally entering the country through the southern border in December alone. This doesn’t include the 50,000 who entered the U.S. through official ports of entry. The flood of migrants during 2023 has overwhelmed the resources of the Border Patrol and the border states, most notably Texas. Both political parties are to blame for the chaos at the border, but the Biden Administration is taking the brunt of it. Only Congress can legislate the country out of its broken immigration and border policies, but President Biden will take the hit this election year if things don’t improve.

Supreme Court and Election Politics: Maine became the second state after Colorado to bar Donald Trump from appearing on its 2024 Republican presidential primary ballot. The justification for such moves is that Donald Trump violated the “insurrection act” of the 14th Amendment. As I wrote in a blog on the topic last September, the law is not clear as to whether the provisions of the 14th Amendment apply to Donald Trump. Even if they did, it would be terrible for the country if a court or a government official, rather than the people, was to decide who was allowed to appear on the ballot. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear Trump’s appeal of the Colorado case on February 8. I hope that the Court decides quickly and decisively in his favor. Otherwise, Trump’s claims of election interference will ring true for millions of Americans, and the faith in free and fair elections could be irreparably harmed.

Presidential Race: To the chagrin of the majority of voting age Americans, the 2024 presidential election will probably be a contest between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Unless President Biden becomes ill, or his wife Jill talks some sense into him, he will be the Democrat nominee for President. Donald Trump still has to win his nomination through the primary process, which he should easily do according to most national polls. There is still a chance that the weight of Trump’s legal challenges could bring him down, but time is on his side. The Iowa caucuses will be held on January 15, followed by the New Hampshire primary on January 23, and the South Carolina primary on February 3. Even if one of Trump’s challengers is still hanging on after these first in the nation primary contests, we will all know who the nominee is after Super Tuesday, March 5.

Internationally:

Israel-Hamas War: This horrific war has dominated headlines since it began on October 7, 2023. The fighting will continue for months, and Israeli is resolute on its determination to wipe out Hamas. The people of Gaza will be dealing with the devastating effects of the war for years to come, and it is hard to see how a lasting peace in the Middle East can emerge from the wreckage.

Ukraine War: Next month the war in Ukraine will enter its third year, with no end in sight. Republicans in Congress are threatening to withhold further aid to Ukraine. But that’s a mistake. Without U.S. support the Russians will eventually wear down the Ukrainians, and Putin will have his victory. Putin will not stop with Ukraine. Other former Soviet bloc countries will fall to his aggression, including several that are current members of NATO. If Russia attacks a NATO country, the United States will be pulled into a European war and will pay in blood, as well as treasure.

When I look back upon 2023, I will try and remind myself of all the good that occurred and not be dragged down by the not so good. 2024 is sure to be a turbulent year, but along with the turbulence will come excitement and opportunities. I’m anxious to get started. I typically don’t make New Year’s resolutions, but this year I will make an exception. I will work on being grateful for all of my blessings, and to never lose my sense of humor, no matter how crazy things get.

If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: [email protected].

Thanks,
Armchair American

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What is Donald Trump's Appeal to Voters?

Fasten Your Seatbelts; 2024 is Going to be a Bumpy Year!

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