Reflections on the Midterm Elections

Votes in several House races are still being counted, but one thing is already clear. The 2022 midterm elections were a victory for the democratic process and election integrity in this country.
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The Democrats have retained the majority in the Senate, and the Republicans will take the leadership role in the House of Representatives by a narrow margin. Politics aside, all fair-minded Americans should be breathing a sigh of relief. There were few, if any, incidences of violence in and around polling places, and with the exception of some armed “poll watchers” in Arizona, voter intimidation was not a problem. The vast majority of candidates who lost their races graciously conceded to their opponents. A move toward normalcy? Let’s hope so.

This blog is about some of my takeaways fr0m the midterm elections.

The Democrat Party Defies the Odds: Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the sitting president, but this one was a referendum on former President Donald Trump. Most of the polls and pundits got it wrong by predicting a “red wave” which would have given the Republicans a large majority in the House and possibly the Senate.
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With 40-year high inflation and President Biden’s approval rating hovering around 40%, Republicans stumbled badly in not performing better than they did. So how did the President manage to have the best midterms of any president in 20 years? Let’s take a look.

Abortion and Reproductive Rights: When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed the constitutional right to an abortion, it was celebrated as a major victory by many conservative Republicans. But to many Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans, this was seen as an attack on personal freedoms and reproductive rights. This issue motivated many to vote in the midterms, including many young voters under the age of 45 who lean heavily Democrat.

In all five states where abortion related issues were on the ballot, voters chose to protect abortion rights. But abortion wasn’t the only thing on voters’ minds. As summer turned to fall, the issue of abortion rights began to fade as inflation and economic issues took center stage. 

​Threats to Democracy: In a September speech, President Biden delivered a blistering attack on Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans, who he characterized as extremists and a threat to democracy. The speech was considered provocative and divisive by most Republicans, and not helpful by some within the President’s own party. But the message resonated with many Democrats and Independents, and became a major messaging point for Democrats on the campaign trail.  The recent violent attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband was a brutal reminder of the dangers of extremism and toxic rhetoric. 

​The Trump Factor: In recent days many in the Republican Party have attributed their underperformance in the midterms to poor candidates and bad messaging.  Although Donald Trump will never admit it, much of this lies squarely on his shoulders.

​Poor Candidates: Several of the candidates backed by Donald Trump failed in key races across the country. The main attributes of a Trump backed candidate are, total loyalty to him, and a belief that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.  Trump’s support was critical in getting these candidates across the finish line in primary races when the base of the party vote in large numbers. But many of the Trump backed candidates lacked political experience, qualifications, and competence, which are crucial to winning a general election. 

​Trump handed the Senate to the Democrats by backing the following wholly unqualified candidates in races that could have been won by more qualified Republican candidates: Blake Masters in Arizona, Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and Herschel Walker in Georgia. Herschel Walker will face the Democrat Raphael Warnock in a run-off election on December 6, 2022. The Democrats will maintain the leadership in the Senate regardless of the outcome of this race, which I think will go to the much more qualified and competent, Raphael Warnock. 

​Trump’s backing of fellow election denier Adam Laxalt in the Nevada Senate race failed to secure a win against the vulnerable Democrat incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. Even Kari Lake, the MAGA Superstar and vocal election denier, couldn’t win the open governor’s seat in Arizona with the adoring support of Donald Trump.    

Bad Messaging: Donald Trump is extremely popular among the base of the Republican Party where his stale message of a rigged 2020 election plays well. The Republican base votes in large numbers in primary elections, helping candidates who embrace Trump and his stolen election lie. As the midterms have shown, election denial is not a winning message during a general election.  

What the midterm elections have made crystal clear is that attacking the integrity of American elections is not a winning strategy. General elections are about policies, not personalities or past grievances.  The winning messages for the Republicans included high inflation, crime, and problems at the border. But these were overshadowed by talk of stolen elections, conspiracy theories, and investigations to come.

Fortunately for democracy, every 2020 election denier who sought to become the top election official in a critical background state lost their election.  This proved once again that MAGA extremism doesn’t play well to a general audience. 

The Road Ahead for the Republican Party

Congress: With thirteen House races yet to be decided, it appears that sometime tomorrow the Republicans will secure the 218 seats required to win the majority in the House of Representatives. What is less clear is who will be the next Speaker of the House. Kevin McCarthy is the leading candidate to become the Republican leader in the House. But with such a slim majority he will have to fight for the speakership, which will be voted on by the full House on January 3, 2023.

McCarthy will need at least 218 votes to become speaker. A tall order with such a small majority of Republican held seats. Many in the pro-Trump House Freedom Caucus, which includes Marjorie Taylor Greene  and Jim Jordan, have already indicated that they will withhold support for McCarthy unless he concedes to their requests. Other factions within the House Republican Caucus will no doubt seize the opportunity to push forward their agendas.
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With at least 150 election deniers elected to fill House seats during this election cycle, whoever the next speaker is will have a difficult time keeping this crowd in check.   

Donald Trump is Not Going Away: As far as Donald Trump is concerned, he is the leader of the Republican Party, and any shortfalls in the midterms were not his fault. In order to punctuate this point, in defiance of many Republican stalwarts, Donald Trump announced today his candidacy for President of the United States in 2024.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis: If there was any type of red wave during the midterms it was in Florida. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis easily beat his Democrat challenger by nearly 20 points. The Republicans won supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and Florida picked up four additional Republican seats in the House of Representatives.
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DeSantis is seen as the main challenger to Donald Trump for the Republican Party's  2024 presidential nomination.  Although DeSantis has not made his intentions known about running for president, he has certainly gotten under the skin of Donald Trump. Trump’s early announcement about his 2024 candidacy was clearly designed to blunt DeSantis’ rising star. Even before Trump announced his candidacy, he began taking swipes at DeSantis, and true to Trump’s adolescent ways, he coined a derogatory nickname for him, “Ron De-Sanctimonious”.

I think that it will turn out to be a battle royal for the soul of the Republican Party, and for the sake of the party, I hope that DeSantis runs. 

Team Normal or MAGA Republicans: After the disappointing midterms, the Republican Party is very much at a crossroads. Do the Republicans continue to embrace Donald Trump, or do they see the midterm defeats as a wakeup call and go in a different direction? If recent history is any guide, Trump will continue to enjoy enormous influence within his party, and he will not go away until he is rejected by Republican voters.

There are many Republican legislators and governors who would clearly like to move beyond Trump and his extremist rhetoric. Wyoming Republican Liz Cheney called the midterm results “a clear victory for Team Normal”, and a step in the right direction.

Republican Senator Mitt Romney, perhaps the captain of Team Normal, urged Republicans to work with Democrats on issues critical to the American people. Romney acknowledged that it would be counterproductive to “pursue pointless investigations, messaging bills, threats and government shutdowns”. Let’s hope that Republican legislators and voters take Romney’s message to heart.

The results of the 2022 midterm elections should bolster Americans’ faith in the integrity of elections and in democracy itself.  It has been a good month for democracy and a bad one for political divisiveness and extremist rhetoric. Let’s hope that Team Normal can expand its ranks within the Republican Party, and that the new Congress will work for the benefit of the people, and not their party.    

 
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Armchair American