Is the Second Senate Impeachment Trial of Donald Trump a Good Idea?

​Donald Trump is the only president in the history of the United States to have been impeached twice. The House of Representatives, with bipartisan support, impeached President Trump on January 13, 2021 for incitement of insurrection. The impeachment was precipitated by the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot by supporters of Donald Trump. This stain on Donald Trump’s presidential record is now part of U.S. history. Democratic House leadership decided to press the case against Donald Trump even further by forwarding the article of impeachment to the Senate for trial.  The move to try Donald Trump in the Senate is not required by the Constitution. The impeachment stands whether or not the case moves to the Senate. Will the Senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump be a good thing for the country or will it backfire on the Democrats? Let’s take a look.

​President Trump is Impeached for a Second Time: On January 13, 2021 the House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald Trump on the single article of “Incitement of Insurrection”. The vote was 232 to 197, with 10 Republicans joining all House Democrats in voting for impeachment.  The text of the impeachment document (https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-resolution/24/text) contains the following reasons for impeachment: “…. the House of Representatives, and the Senate met at the United States Capitol for a Joint Session of Congress to count the votes of the Electoral College. In the months preceding the Joint Session, President Trump repeatedly issued false statements asserting that the Presidential election results were the product of widespread fraud and should not be accepted by the American people or certified by State or Federal officials. Shortly before the Joint Session commenced, President Trump addressed a crowd at the Ellipse in Washington, DC. There, he reiterated the false claims 'we won this election, and we won it by a landslide'. He also willfully made statements that, in context, encouraged-and foreseeably resulted in-lawless action at the Capitol, such as: 'if you don’t fight like hell you’re not going to have a country anymore'. Thus incited by President Trump, members of the crowd he had addressed, in an attempt to, among other objectives, interfere with the Joint Session’s solemn constitutional duty to certify the results of the 2020 Presidential election, unlawfully breached and vandalized the Capitol, injured and killed law enforcement personnel, menaced Members of Congress, the Vice President, and Congressional personnel, and engaged in other violent, deadly, destructive, and seditious acts”.

The impeachment document further states that “President Trump’s conduct on January 6, 2021, followed his prior efforts to subvert and obstruct the certification of the results of the 2020 Presidential election. Those prior efforts included a phone call on January 2, 2021, during which President Trump urged the secretary of state of Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, to 'find' enough votes to overturn the Georgia Presidential election results and threatened Secretary Raffensperger if he failed to do so.”

​Most of us have viewed the television coverage and read the news reports, and pretty much concur with the reasoning behind the impeachment of Donald Trump. There is evidence that several militia groups had been planning to storm the Capitol even before Donald Trump’s speech of January 6, 2021. But no one can dispute that Donald Trump’s rhetoric about the “stolen election” was the impetus behind the Capitol riot. Even his political allies believe that he committed impeachable offenses. According to the New York Times, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell believes that President Trump committed impeachable offenses. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy stated to House colleagues that President Trump was at least partially responsible for the Capitol riot.

​On to the Senate Trial: On January 25, 2021 House managers delivered the article of impeachment to the Senate, officially starting the trial process. Senate leadership agreed to delay the trial for a few weeks in order to give the former president time to prepare for the trial and to give the Senate time to continue the process of confirming President Biden’s cabinet nominees. On January 26, 2021 all Senators were sworn in as jurors for the upcoming trial. Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont will be the presiding officer. The impeachment trial will begin on February 9, 2021 with oral arguments. It will take 2/3 of the Senators (67) to vote to convict Donald Trump. Assuming all 50 Democratic Senators vote to convict, it will take 17 Republican Senators to vote for conviction. 

Objections to the Senate Trial: New Senate leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) claimed that “…healing and unity will only come if there is truth and accountability. And that is what this trial will provide”. But not all republicans are buying this argument. Many are saying that it will further divide the country, and the point is moot now that Donald Trump is no longer in office. Others, like Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, consider it unconstitutional to impeach a president who is already out of office. Even before the Senators were sworn in as jurors, Senator Paul put forth a motion to declare the impeachment trial unconstitutional. In the resulting vote, 45 Republicans, including Mitch McConnell, agreed with Senator Paul. But Senator Paul’s attempt to rule the impeachment trial unconstitutional failed, and it will proceed as scheduled.
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My Views on the Senate Impeachment Trial:

• First of all, I believe that it is constitutional to impeach and try a president who is no longer in office, as long as the offense(s) occurred during his time in office. If a president’s impeachable offenses were not discovered until after he left office, he still needs to be held accountable. If not, he would be above the law. Additionally, if the president had committed impeachable offenses while in office, and it was discovered, the president could resign before any legal proceedings were brought against him. This would provide a way to avoid prosecution, which is not what the Constitution intended. 
• Forty-five Republican Senators have already gone on the record by declaring in a Senate vote, that they consider the trial to be unconstitutional. It seems improbable that these senators will turn around in a few weeks and convict Donald Trump in a trial that they consider to be unconstitutional. Since 17 Republican Senators are needed, along with all 50 Democrats, in order to convict Donald Trump, a conviction seems highly improbable. To my knowledge, no prosecutor would ever bring a case to trial that they had little chance of winning. It would be a waste of time and resources, but the Democrats have chosen to proceed anyway.
• With little chance of winning a conviction against Donald Trump, the Democrats come across as vindictive, and damage President Biden’s message of unity. Any time spent on the impeachment trial is less time available to move forward with critical COVID-19 legislation and other work important to the Biden agenda.
• Senator Mitch McConnel is very effective at keeping tight control over Senate Republicans. But I think that he is making a mistake by allowing his Republican colleagues to vote their consciences in the upcoming impeachment trial. This all but guarantees that Donald Trump will be acquitted. There is no question in my mind that if McConnell wanted to convict Donald Trump in the Senate, he could muster the 17 votes needed. A conviction would then allow the Republicans to prevent Donald Trump from ever running for high office again. This would allow them to regain control of the party and move away from the disgraced former president.
• The consequences of a Trump acquittal in the Senate, which is a near certainty, will have far reaching consequences. Donald Trump and his followers will be emboldened, and in their minds vindicated. This could keep the false narrative alive that the election was stolen, and could provoke further unrest and division.

​Politics as Usual: In recent days the Republican leadership in the House and Senate have concluded that, for better or worse, they need Donald Trump. In order to regain the House and Senate in the mid-term elections they will need those Republicans who are still loyal to Donald Trump, and there are millions. Senator Lindsey Graham stated bluntly this week, “We cannot take the Senate back without his help (Donald Trump’s). That’s just a fact”. It’s a sorry day in our democracy when the quest for power trump’s (no pun intended) justice, integrity, and democratic values. The Republican party would do the country a huge favor by convicting Donald Trump and then preventing him from ever running for high office again. But instead they have chosen to make a deal with the devil and they will have to live with the consequences. Sadly the country will have a difficult time unifying with Donald Trump’s polarizing presence. 

​There is no doubt in my mind that Donald Trump threatened the integrity of our democratic system, interfered with the peaceful transition of power, and imperiled a coequal branch of government. In short, he committed impeachable offenses and the House of Representatives was correct in impeaching him. This second impeachment will forever be a stain on his legacy. However, I fear that delivering the article of impeachment to the Senate to initiate an impeachment trial will prove to be a mistake. 

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Armchair American