No Mr. President, the Pandemic is Not Over!

​President Biden would love for the COVID pandemic to be over, as we all would. But declaring the pandemic over during a television interview doesn’t make it so. This topic has become more real to me in recent days. Last week I tested positive for COVID-19 after returning from a trip to Yellowstone National Park.
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The President is correct to conclude that in the minds of many Americans the pandemic is over, and they have moved on. To bolster this notice, infection rates, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19 have dropped significantly over the past two months. But according to the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker, on average, over 300 Americans are dying from COVID-19 every day. This and other troubling developments may show that President Biden was a little premature in declaring the pandemic over. 

​Winter is Coming: The autumn and winter months bring colder weather to much of the Untied States. These are the months when children are back in school and people gather in large numbers for holiday celebrations. Cold weather leads to more indoor gatherings, a major reason for the increase in transmission of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19.

Worrisome Trends in Europe: COVID-19 infections are trending higher across Europe, and Europe tends to precede the United States by about four to six weeks. For the week ending October 9, 2022, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control reported widespread increases in all COVID-19 indicators, including infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. 

Emergence of Variants: The last major variant to emerge was BA.5, a subvariant of Omicron. It peaked in July, and according to the CDC’s latest projections, BA.5 represents approximately 68% of the circulating strains of the virus in the United States.  

The World Health Organization  is currently monitoring over 300 different variants.  Of most concern are the variants XBB, BQ.1.1, and its sibling BQ.1. According to Yunlong Richard Cao, of Peking University in Beijing, these are the most antibody-evasive strains ever tested. In the lab, antibody therapies such as Evusheld, don’t work against these new variants.

Infections due to BQ.1.1 in the United Kingdom and other European countries are increasing at an alarming rate. The highly transmissible BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are now spreading in the United States and are causing about 10% of new COVID-19 infections. This could be the next variant wave that hits this winter. 

Low Acceptance of Boosters: Only about 40% of U.S. adults have received a booster (3rd shot) after they received their original two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. The new bivalent booster, released last month, has received a cool reception from the general public. Less than 5% of adults have gotten it. More troubling is the indication that only about one-third of adults are very likely to get the new booster, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll.    

Best Defense Against COVID: Most people in the United States received their original COVID-19 vaccine in 2021. The protection offered from the original doses decline with the passage of time. These original vaccines were not developed to protect against the new variants that are now circulating in the population. Vaccines and boosters remain our best defense against serious illness and death from COVID-19.

The new bivalent booster was designed to be effective against the BA.4 and BA.5 variants of the virus that causes COVID-19. Therefore, it should provide protection against the new variants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which are descendants of BA.5
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According to Dr. Ashish Jha, head of the White House COVID task force, 70% of people dying from COVID-19 are age 75 and over. The vast majority of those people are either not up to date on vaccines, or are not receiving treatments such as Paxlovid when they have breakthrough infections, according to Dr. Jha. In other words, most deaths due to COVID-19 could be prevented. 

Cautionary Tale: Let my recent trip to Yellowstone National Park, where I contracted COVID-19, be a cautionary tale. For the past two and a half years I had done all the right things to protect myself. I got all the required COVID-19 vaccines and boosters, wore face masks whenever I went into a store or other public place, and practiced social distancing. Eating at an indoor restaurant or attending an indoor show were out of the question. Two weeks prior to setting off for Yellowstone I received the new bivalent booster shot, and continued to mask in most indoor settings.
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During our visit to Yellowstone, we wore face masks in indoor settings such as visitor centers. We ate breakfast in the hotel room, and took picnic lunches when exploring the park during the day. We chose early October to visit Yellowstone to avoid the summer crowds. But this is also the time of year when nighttime temperatures fall dramatically, and many of the lodging and dining options are closed. On the few occasions that we ate indoors we found ourselves in crowded dining facilities with people from all over the United States and other regions of the world. None of the wait staff wore face masks and neither did the vast majority of diners. Despite all the precautions, I fell victim to this highly contagious virus.

I can attest to the fact that vaccines and boosters are not enough to fully protect you against COVID-19, particularly as we begin to gather indoors. Other public health measures such as masking, social distancing and handwashing, need to continue. I know that COVID fatigue is real, and the prospect of wearing face masks indoors is not popular. But I think that the percentage of the population vaccinated with the bivalent booster and the amount of indoor masking, will determine if COVID-19 hits in a wave or a whimper this winter.      
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President Biden may have declared the COVID pandemic to be over, but the virus has other ideas. As new variants emerge and cold weather forces people indoors, this is not the time to let your guard down.  

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Thanks,
Armchair American