 It has been quite a month over the skies of North America. Between February 4 and February 12, a high-altitude Chinese balloon and three other unidentified flying objects were shot out of the sky by U.S. fighter jets. Are we under attack by some foreign power, or an alien race from outer space? Or has the Air Force just gotten a little trigger happy? This series of incidents created quite a stir across the country, and seemed to catch the military by surprise. The Biden Administration was certainly caught off guard, causing it to overreact in the face of public and political criticism. What do we know about the flying objects that the air force shot down, and is this something else we need to add to our long list of things to worry about? Here is what we know about the unidentified flying objects, now referred to as unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) by the government, shot down by the U.S. military in recent days:  Chinese Spy Balloon: The U.S. government has known about the existence of the Chinese military’s spy balloon program since 2020. The Chinese have sent spy balloons over more than 40 countries on five continents. The spy balloons augment the more than 260 intelligence satellites that the Chinese have in orbit. The U.S. began tracking the now infamous spy balloon in late January when it was launched from Hainan Island in southern China. Based on the trajectory of the balloon, U.S. officials believe that its mission was to conduct surveillance of U.S. military bases in Guam and Hawaii. Winds blew the balloon off course and it entered Alaskan airspace on January 28. The balloon traveled over Canada and the U.S. mainland before it was shot down off the coast of South Carolina on February 4. The Chinese balloon was flying at an altitude of approximately 60,000 feet, and therefore presented no hazard to commercial airliners, according to the Pentagon. Deflecting criticism for allowing the balloon to linger in U.S. airspace for several days, Pentagon officials claimed that the balloon posed no threat, and allowed the military to collect intelligence about the balloon and take high-resolution images of its equipment. The military also claimed to have locked down non-encrypted communications coming from military bases in the balloon’s flight path.   The Navy, Coast Guard, and FBI have finished recovering all the debris from the downed balloon from the ocean off of South Carolina. The debris was taken to the FBI lab in Virginia for analysis. The recovered electronics and optical equipment reinforced the military’s conclusion that the object was in fact a Chinese spy balloon. To this day, Chinese officials insist that the balloon was a civilian device used for weather research that had simply drifted off course. If you believe that, you believe that Putin invaded Ukraine to rid it of Nazis.  Three More Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) Shot Down:
 What’s Going on in the Skies Above Us? Due to the lack of debris recovered from the three UAPs recently shot down, we will never know preciously what they were or where they came from. What we do know is that none of the three objects were emitting signals of any kind. They were traveling at low speed at an altitude of 20,000 feet to 40,000 feet, within the range of transcontinental air traffic. The claim by the military that the UAPs posed a danger to air traffic lanes provided cover for its actions. The current thinking from the military and intelligence community is that the UAPs were most likely balloons, or similar devices owned by private companies, research groups, or recreational clubs studying weather or conducting research. The military has known for many years that there is a large amount of airborne trash floating around at high altitudes, in addition to objects participating in active scientific research, like weather balloons.  In response to the incursion into U.S. airspace by the Chinese spy balloon, the military radar systems monitoring the American and Canadian airspace have been adjusted to make them more sensitive to slower moving objects. The result is that our radar systems are spotting many more objects that would have previously been missed. So, if I were you, I would put off scheduling any hot air balloon trips until the military has its radar systems fully dialed in.  The Real Significance of Recent UAP Events: The shooting down of four UAPs by the military earlier this month revealed its shortcomings in monitoring America’s airspace. But this will be corrected with time. The real threat to our country isn’t from little green men in flying saucers, or from other UPAs. The real threat comes from frayed relations with China. Recent events have revealed just how strained the relations between the U.S. and China really are. The Chinese spy balloon incident further strained relations between our two countries. Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceled a scheduled trip to Beijing where he was expected to meet with President Xi Jinping. China’s defense chief refused to take a call from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to discuss the spy balloon incident. The U.S. Commerce Department announced plans to ban trade with several Chinese companies with ties to the Chinese military. In response, Chinese officials have stated that they will take “counter measures” against “relevant American entities”.  The heightened tensions between the U.S. and China should come as no real surprise in light of recent actions taken by the Biden Administration. These include increased U.S. military access to bases in the Philippines, a new military technology agreement with India, restrictions on sales of advanced computer chips to China, and the development of new security agreements with Australia and Britain. When you include Japan’s announcement that it will increase military spending and America’s commitment to Taiwan, it’s not surprising that China feels more isolated and is acting more aggressively with its spy balloon program. The last thing that the world needs is for the two superpowers to enter into a cold war. Fortunately, U.S. and Chinese diplomats have begun to talk again in recent days. Secretary Blinken met last weekend with the Director of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Affairs Office at the Munich Security Conference in Germany. For the sake of our two countries, and indeed the world, let’s hope that the channels of communication can open and tensions cool. It is better to fix any problems now when the threat from China involves spy balloons. When the problems escalate to nuclear weapons, it may be too late.  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American
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 I previously wrote about the debt ceiling in October of 2021. It was the last time a divided Congress threatened the financial stability of the country, and indeed the world, by withholding support for increasing the amount of money the U.S. Treasury can legally borrow to pay its bills. The only thing different this time is the cast of characters in Washington D.C.  The federal government reached its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling on January 19, 2023. It took the government decades to reach this level of debt, and is the result of tax cuts and spending increases from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has stated that through the use of “extraordinary measures” (fancy accounting), the federal government will be able to continue to pay its bills through early June. Congress must increase the debt ceiling in order for the Treasury to raise the money needed to pay the bills that Congress has already approved. If this doesn’t happen, the Treasury will run out of money and not be able to pay all of its financial obligations. No reasonable person wants this to happen, but it is a test of the new Congress and President Biden as to how the current impasse gets resolved.  President Biden’s Position: The President has stated that he will not negotiate over the debt ceiling. He wants it increased with no strings attached. President Biden’s refusal to negotiate with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy stems from his experience during the 2011 debt ceiling negotiations between the Obama Administration and Congressional Republicans. When negotiations broke down, the United States suffered its first ever credit downgrade, financial markets were rattled, and recovery from the Great Recession was threatened. Biden pledged that he would never again allow debt ceiling negotiations threaten the financial stability of the United States. President Biden should have pushed through a debt ceiling resolution last fall when the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress. I believe that he feared that such a move would have appeared too partisan. To that I say, “so what”. It’s better than allowing Congress to threaten the financial credibility of the country, and diverting legislative attention away from more important issues.  Speaker McCarthy’s Position: During his fight for the House Speakership last month, Kevin McCarthy assured the ultraconservative members of his party that he would use the debt ceiling as leverage to force budget cuts. The new House Speaker has met with the President in recent days to extract spending cuts in exchange for a debt ceiling increase. McCarthy wants an 8% reduction to the current budget, which would bring spending down to 2022 budget levels. Apparently, the meeting was not a negotiation but simply a discussion, with each side stating their position. But McCarthy has not shown the President, or the American people, his proposed budget. He has spoken in general terms, but has not defined which budget items would be cut and to what extent. Speaker McCarthy has mentioned that he would like to see changes to major entitlement programs, and to cut annual spending that funds the operating budgets of federal agencies. All well and good, just show us your plan. I don’t think that McCarthy will be able to gain much ground with the President on this issue anytime soon. The government won’t run out of cash until sometime in June, which gives McCarthy more time. This will be a real test of his leadership abilities, and show just how secure his position as Speaker of the House really is.  Do Away with the Debt Ceiling: Paying our federal debts should be an automatic act, not subject to the whims of political brinksmanship. The debt ceiling doesn’t control federal spending, and needlessly burdens Congress with legislation when its time is needed for much more urgent matters. It often brings the Congress to a standstill and prevents the Treasury from performing its functions efficiently. It’s time for the United States to join most other industrialized countries and abolish the federal debt ceiling altogether.  The fact that the U.S. government is on the verge of adding more debt to the $31.4 trillion already owed is incomprehensible to most Americans. Interest payments alone on the national debt amounted to $475 billion in the last fiscal year. It will be significantly higher this year. That is money not available for social programs, infrastructure spending, or any other national priority. An alternative to borrowing more money to fund public spending is to collect more taxes. But one of the first bills passed by the new 118th Congress was to rescind the $80 billion in new funding for the I.R.S., passed in the last Congress. That makes it hard for me to believe that the Republicans are serious about getting the government’s fiscal house in order. Fortunately, the bill will never get approved by the Democratic held Senate.  The discussion over government spending and public debt is a discussion worth having. But having that discussion when the debt ceiling has already been reached, is a little late. The money has already been spent. The time for that debate is during the presidential election season. Substantive discussions around government spending, paying down the national debt, and other fiscal initiatives would be welcome, and long overdue. Bring on the debate!  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  2022 was a difficult year for the digital asset space, particularly cryptocurrencies. Values plummeted and FTX, a company that ran a major exchange in cryptocurrencies, declared bankruptcy, losing billions of dollars in investors’ money.  So, what is cryptocurrency? Does it have a future, and should we even care? The world of crypto is new to many of us, and it comes in many forms. This is a fast-moving space, with lots of twists and turns, and there’s new terminology to learn. This blog is my attempt to wrap my head around the emerging world of crypto. This new tech/finance space is not going away, despite a rough 2022. About twenty percent of American adults own cryptocurrency, so it is something that I will be paying attention to in the months and years to come.  What is Crypto: When people talk or write about “crypto” they are usually referring to “cryptocurrency”. Cryptocurrency is virtual currency that uses cryptography to secure transactions digitally on a blockchain. More on the blockchain later. Cryptocurrency is digital, it doesn’t exist in a physical form. It is not produced or sponsored by a central government, and is not backed by gold or other asset to support its value. El Salvador and a few other countries have made bitcoin (the first cryptocurrency) an official currency, but most have not. China has banned it outright. Millions of people around the world are now using cryptocurrency as a form of money, but it is not a government backed (fiat) currency like dollars and euros. So, if it is not currency, what is it? It is a digital asset, which the I.R.S. defines as “the binary representation of anything having an economic value that can be owned”. A single unit of cryptocurrency is also referred to as a digital coin or token.  Bitcoin: Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency, is the most widely known, and most valuable. The first transaction using bitcoins was on May 22, 2010. Today the value of all bitcoins worldwide is over $360 billion. But bitcoin is not alone. There are over 20,000 different cryptocurrencies in existence, and the number is changing daily. Bitcoin was developed in 2008 by a programmer, or programmers, going by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto. It was during the depths of the financial crisis when Satoshi released the white paper “Bitcoin, a Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”. The system was designed to bypass central banks and conventional currencies, which were not to be trusted. According to Bitcoin’s website, it was established to be an innovative payment network with a new kind of money. The network is known as Bitcoin, using the newly developed blockchain technology (more on the blockchain later). The new kind of money was the first cryptocurrency, known as bitcoin (lower case b). Bitcoin uses peer-to-peer technology to operate with no central banks. The management of transactions and issuing of bitcoins is carried out collectively by the network. Bitcoin is open-source, its design is public, nobody owns or controls Bitcoin, and everyone can take part. From these egalitarian beginnings, Bitcoin launched a new gold rush in digital assets, and a multi-billion-dollar worldwide infrastructure catering to investors and developers has sprung up.  Buyer Beware: Bitcoin was designed to seamlessly facilitate payments across borders, without the need for banks, at little cost. But the real action is in speculation on the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin had no value when it was first introduced. It reached a high of $65,000 in November of 2021 before losing over 60% of its value in 2022. Today it trades at just over $21,000. Cryptocurrencies are easy to buy, but often come with high fees to acquire and store it. You are out of luck if you lose your “wallet” where your cryptocurrencies are stored, or if you forget your digital key (password) which identifies you as the owner. Coinbase is one of the most popular online platforms for buying, selling, transferring and storing bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Several traditional brokerage firms sell cryptocurrencies and/or funds that invest in cryptocurrencies or affiliated companies. You can even buy the major cryptocurrencies from special ATM machines. You may have seen them in drug stores and grocery stores.  Before you invest in cryptocurrencies do your homework. They are highly speculative, and invest only an amount of money that you can afford to lose. Deal with experienced, reputable brokers. You don’t want to have your money disappear like it did with FTX. I don’t own any cryptocurrency for two simple reasons. Prices are highly volatile, and there is little regulation of this asset class. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has described cryptocurrencies as “very risky assets”, and she remains very skeptical, as you should. There are many unknowns about the future of cryptocurrencies which could affect their investment value. What happens if the U.S. government regulates them more closely, or bans them outright? What happens if the U.S. government decides to issue its own digital currency pegged to the dollar? These and other unknowns should give you pause when considering cryptocurrencies as an investment. But that doesn’t mean that cryptocurrencies and other digital assets don’t hold real promise.  The Promise of Digital Currency: There are many advantages of digital currency over physical currency. The costs of producing, storing, and distributing physical currency are enormous. Physical currency can be easily lost, stolen, or destroyed. It can be counterfeited and used in the underground economy due to lack of traceability. Digital currency issued by a central bank would be cheaper, more efficient, and safer for people to use. It would leave a digital footprint, which would cut down on crime, tax evasion, and loss. Other advantages include faster, cheaper, and more efficient payment systems. Digital currency holds a lot of promise for places like Africa where large numbers of people don’t have access to banks and financial institutions. Digital currency could eliminate the need to have banks and other infrastructure in order to hold money and conduct financial transactions. Your cell phone could take the place of the local bank. Central banks around the world are exploring the development of their own digital currency. A digital currency backed by a central bank would have price stability, and be more widely accepted than today’s cryptocurrencies.  Blockchains: The real promise that the emergence of digital assets has brought is the underlying technology that enables them, blockchains. There would be no bitcoin without Bitcoin, the original block chain that enables it. A blockchain is a database (digital ledger) of transactions that is updated and shared across many computers in a network. Every time a new set of transactions is added, it is called a “block”. The blockchain is decentralized, meaning that it doesn’t exist in a central location, but in computers all over the world. Each transaction is encrypted and distributed to all of the computers in the network. Hackers would have to access a majority of all computers in the network to change or delete a transaction, making the system very secure. Blockchains are immutable, which means that once a record is created it cannot be altered or deleted. They are typically open source, making a blockchain’s code and record of transactions open for anyone to inspect. In short, blockchains are public, permanent databases that are very secure, and not owned by anyone. Virtually anything of value can be tracked and traded on a blockchain network without the need for an intermediary or middleman. This cuts costs and reduces risk for each party involved in a transaction. Blockchains are ideal for financial transactions. But advanced blockchains will track real estate, intellectual property, patents, copyrights, insurance policies, medical records, and so much more. You can find more information on blockchains at this link.  Ethereum and Smart Contracts: Since the development of Bitcoin, blockchains have been developed with features and benefits that bring value far beyond enabling cryptocurrencies. Ethereum is a blockchain network with its own cryptocurrency, “ether”, which is second only to bitcoin in popularity. Bitcoin is only a payment network, but Ethereum is that and much more. It is programable, which means that applications can be built that use the blockchain to create an ever-growing list of applications beyond the digital currency space. The built-in programming feature of Ethereum has allowed for the development of smart contracts, which have the potential of transforming many industries.  Smart contracts are programs stored on a blockchain that run when predetermined conditions are met. They are used to automate the execution of an agreement so that all participants can be immediately certain of the outcome, without any intermediary’s involvement, increasing speed and reducing costs. Smart contracts have applications in real estate, financial services, insurance, medical records, gaming, legal services, the administration of public and private policies, and the list is growing daily. Here is a link for more information on Ethereum and smart contracts.  Regulations: No one knows for sure what the future holds for cryptocurrency. But one thing is clear, government regulations are coming. The billions of dollars of investor money lost in the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX has caught the attention of Congress and the White House. Most legislators, as well as industry insiders, agree that more regulation is needed. But the question is, which agency should have regulatory authority over digital assets, exchanges, and dealers? The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) claims that digital currencies are not securities. The Federal Reserve says that digital coins, like bitcoin, are not currency. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) says that digital coins are not commodities. The only federal agency that has stepped to the plate with regulations has been the I.R.S. This makes sense, since the I.R.S. never misses an opportunity to find a new stream of tax revenue. The I.R.S. classifies digital assets as property, and considers any sales or exchanges to be taxable events. Last year President Biden signed an executive order that called on government agencies to study the “responsible development” of regulations of digital assets. Now the Treasury Department, SEC, and CFTC are working together to develop regulations for digital assets. Congress has been behind the 8 ball on this issue, and new regulations are needed sooner rather than later.  Cryptocurrencies are not just a passing fade. Their utility will encourage central banks around the world to develop their own. Powerful new blockchains, like Ethereum, will transform the way business is conducted in many fields. Investors will continue to speculate on bitcoin, ether, and other digital coins. But without new regulations and investor protections, buying and trading digital assets will remain very risky. New regulations should also stimulate wider acceptance by consumers and retailers. I have only brushed the surface on the topics of cryptocurrency and blockchains. There are a lot of books and articles available on this exciting new frontier. I predict that one day blockchain technology will be as integral to businesses as the internet is today.  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  As most of us settled in to enjoy the holiday season at home with family and friends, our representatives in Washington D.C. raced to finish some last-minute business. Major legislation was passed, the January 6th committee issued its final report, Donald Trump’s tax returns were released, and the 117th Congress faded into the history books, leaving some important business undone. Before turning the page on 2022, my final blog of the year is about some of my thoughts on these issues that emanated from D.C. while the rest of the country was busy with holiday preparations.  Donald Trump’s Income Taxes: Today (12/30/2022) House Democrats released six years of former President Donald Trump’s income tax returns. This is the type of thing that excites the politicians in Washington D.C., but for most of Americans it is a yawner. People just don’t care about Trump’s returns. We already know that Trump pays very little in personal income taxes because he uses massive real estate losses and write-offs from his various companies to offset any income. The House has the right to release Trump’s tax returns, but it didn’t have to. It was purely a political move to damage him. What is important was brought to light in a report issued by the House Ways and Means Committee ten days ago. The I.R.S. had failed to audit Trump’s tax returns during the first two years of his presidency, even though it is mandated by I.R.S. policy. It wasn’t until after the congressional committee’s inquiry into the matter as part of its oversight role, did the I.R.S. initiate the audit of President Trump’s tax returns. I don’t think that the Trump White House pressured the I.R.S. into turning a blind eye to Trump’s tax returns. I simply think that the I.R.S. was outgunned by Trump’s army of tax attorneys and accountants, and overwhelmed by Trump’s hundreds of tax entities and tangle of businesses. The I.R.S. just didn’t have the manpower and expertise to do a thorough audit of such a complex tax situation. This is why the Democrats included $80 billion for the I.R.S. in the Inflation Reduction Act , passed earlier this year. House Republicans have threatened to withhold this money from the I.R.S. when they take over the House majority in January. This would be a huge mistake and hypocritical on their part. If the Republicans claim to be the party of fiscal responsibility and low taxes, then they should give the I.R.S. the tools and resources required to collect the taxes that are legally owed.  January 6th Committee Report: Last week the House committee investigating the deadly attack on the U.S. Capitol released its final report after 18 months of investigations. The report was issued just weeks before the new Republican controlled House of Representatives will certainly shut down the committee and its investigation. Most people will never read the 800 plus page report, but it is important, if for no other reason than to create the historical record of the most significant act to overthrow the government of this country since the civil war. Congress will probably shelve the report and move on. Now it is up to the Department of Justice (DOJ) to pursue some of the criminal charges that the report recommends be brought against former President Trump. These include inciting or assisting an insurrection; conspiring to defraud the United States; obstructing an official proceeding; and conspiring to make a false statement. Do I think that Donald Trump is guilty of some or all of these charges? Yes! Do I think that the DOJ will indict Trump of any of these charges? Probably not, because they will be difficult to prove in a court of law. According to the committee’s report “The central cause of Jan. 6 was one man, former President Donald Trump, whom many others followed. None of the events of Jan. 6 would have happened without him.” But the American people have decided long ago whether or not they think that Donald Trump is responsible for the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021. Donald Trump will not be held responsible for the events of that day. But he is not out of the woods. He will face serious legal jeopardy for mishandling government documents related to the storage of those documents at Mar-a-Lago, and for his attempt to force election officials in Georgia to change the results of the 2020 election.  $1.7 Trillion Spending Bill: Yesterday President Biden signed into law a nearly $1.7 trillion, 4155-page spending bill which will fund the federal government through September 30, 2023. I am always leery of any piece of legislation that is pushed through Congress in the waning days of a term, when no one has completely read or fully understands it. Like most spending bills, there are a lot of goodies tucked into it by politicians at the last minute. But there are two significant parts of the legislation that I agree with. Funding for Ukraine and the overhaul of the Electoral Count Act.  Funding for Ukraine: Included in the bill is $45 billion for military, economic and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine. Despite some Republican protests that the Biden Administration has given the Ukrainian’s a blank check, I think that this is money well spent. Consider the trillions of dollars spent on the Afghanistan and Iraq wars which produced no strategic value, and resulted in nothing but death and destruction. Russia is arguably one of the biggest military threats to the United States, and the largest threat to the peace and economic stability of Europe. The war in Ukraine has become the equivalent of a proxy war with Russia, without direct U.S. military involvement and U.S. casualties. The war also unites many of the world’s democracies behind a common cause, and puts a check on Russia’s aggressive expansionary goals. The money spent now in Ukraine is a bargain for the humanitarian and strategic benefits that it will bring.  Electoral Count Reform Act: A section of the spending legislation reforms the Electoral Count Act, an 1887 law that governs the counting of Electoral College votes in Congress. The update to the law ensures that electoral votes tallied by Congress accurately reflect each state’s public vote for President. The new legislation clearly defines the role of the vice president to be purely ceremonial during the electoral vote count. The vice president has no power to determine, accept, or reject a state’s electors. This change was in response to President Trump’s attempt to get Vice President Pence to reject certain slates of electors in favor of ones that would win Trump the presidency. The other important change to the law is the raising of the threshold to lodge an objection to electors. An objection will now take 20% of the members of each chamber of Congress. This change will reduce the likelihood of frivolous objections by ensuring that objections are broadly supported. Previously, only a single member of both chambers was needed to object to an elector or slate of electors.  Unfinished Business: Title 42 is a health measure put in place by the Trump Administration near the start of the pandemic to restrict migration at the border. In anticipation of the expiration of Title 42 near the end of December, migrants have flooded border crossings and overwhelmed the resources of border towns in the U.S. Last week the Supreme Court blocked the lifting of Title 42, keeping the border restrictions in place. Title 42 has been used more than 2 million times to expel migrants on public health grounds during both the Trump and Biden Administrations. Now the Biden Administration has a few more months to prepare for the eventual expiration of Title 42. Not passing any meaningful legislation to deal with the eventual end of Title 42 is a major failure of the Biden Administration and the 117th Congress. Both Democrats and Republicans are to blame. They prefer the issue to be used as a political football rather than to address the serious security and humanitarian crisis unfolding at our southern border. Good luck passing any legislation on border security or immigration reform during the next Congress.  2022 will be remembered for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high inflation, and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates seven times in an attempt to curb inflation. Financial markets were turbulent all over the world, and the bloom came off of crypto currencies. Even with our best efforts to ignore it, COVID would just not go away, so the world endured a third year of the pandemic. Despite all that, Americans remain an optimistic lot, me included. I look forward to 2023 with renewed optimism and hope that the new year will be better than the last.  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  Later this month President Biden will sign into law the Respect for Marriage Act. Even though this law won’t be perfect, it does provide some very important protections for same-sex and interracial couples, and should be considered a holiday gift to the American people in the waning days of the 117th Congress. What is the Respect for Marriage Act? The bill was approved by the House of Representatives in July and then moved to the Senate for consideration. After the inclusion of an amendment which provides certain protections to nonprofit religious organizations, the bill was passed by the Senate on November 22, 2022. All Democrats and 12 Republicans voted for the bill, getting it past the 60 votes needed for passage. Since the House version of the bill was amended in the Senate, it will return to the House for a final vote. This should happen within the next two weeks before going to the President for his signature.  For the purposes of federal law, the bill redefines the definition of marriage, and requires all states to recognize any marriage that was legal in the state where it was entered into. The bill also prohibits polygamous marriages, and protects religious organizations who refuse to perform marriage ceremonies that are counter to their beliefs. Revised Definition of Marriage: The bill repeals the Defense of Marriage Act, which defined marriage as “a legal union between one man and one woman as husband and wife”. Under the new bill, the federal government will recognize any marriage between two individuals which is valid in the state where the marriage was entered into. This gives same-sex and interracial couples equal treatment under the law as any other married couples. New Protections: All states must recognize the marriages of couples legally married in other states. State officials must afford the same rights and protections to all married couples, regardless of the sex, race, ethnicity, or national origin of the individuals involved. Even though all 50 states currently allow same-sex and interracial marriages, these marriages are not protected by federal law, and are subject to the whims of the Supreme Court and state officials.  Religious Protections: Senate Republicans would never have voted for the bill without the support of the religious right and some major religious organizations. These organizations were worried about losing their precious tax-exempt status if they didn’t go along with the provisions of the bill. In order to win the support of the religious right, Senate Republicans negotiated with Democrats to amend the House version of the bill. The amendment won the support of the Mormon church, the Council for Christian Colleges and Universities, the Union of Orthodox Jewish Congregations of America, and the National Association of Evangelicals. The bill provides the following protections:
Many on the left and in the LGBTQ community oppose the protections given to religious organizations. They view the religious protections as a way to deny same-sex couples the rights and freedoms that other couples enjoy. This may be true, but it is the first major piece of federal legislation that balances the needs of same-sex couples and of conservative religious groups. Without the religious protections, the bill would never have passed the Senate, and the bill wouldn’t become law.  Why is the Respect for Marriage Act Needed? The Supreme Court has already ruled that the federal government must recognize same-sex marriages (United States v. Windsor), and the Court’s 2015 ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges requires all states to grant same-sex marriages and recognize same-sex marriages granted in other states. It seems as if same-sex marriages are already protected by Supreme Court rulings, so why the need for a new federal law?  The makeup of the Supreme Court can change over time and prior rulings can be overturned. When the Supreme Court overturned Roe V. Wade this summer, the country learned that rights may be taken away if they are not written into law. In his opinion in the case overturning Roe v. Wade, Justice Clarence Thomas wrote that the Court “should reconsider” Obergefell v. Hodges. This set off alarm bells across the country, and many saw this as a direct threat to the national recognition of same-sex marriage. The Respect for Marriage Act was passed by Congress to counter that threat. It is the job of Congress to write laws, not the Supreme Court. To protect and preserve the rights of same-sex and interracial couples, it is up to Congress to codify those rights into law, and not let nine unelected justices make a decision which would impact millions of Americans.  What this Bill Doesn’t Do: Marriage is largely regulated by the states. Each state determines who is allowed to marry and how a marriage can be dissolved. The Respect for Marriage Act doesn’t force states to issue marriage licenses to same-sex or interracial couples. If the Supreme Court overturned Obergefell v. Hodges, as Justice Thomas has hinted at, many same-sex couples would be forced to leave their home state to get married. This will have to be addressed in future legislation. The Respect for Marriage Act does not resolve the conflict over whether private businesses can be forced by law to provide goods and services for same-sex or interracial weddings. The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments on a case about whether a web designer can be forced to provide her services to create a wedding web site for a gay couple, which goes against her religious beliefs. This case will probably be decided in June.  There are over 1 million same-sex couple households in the United States according to the latest census data. Nearly 60% of these couples are married. Over 10% of all marriages are either interracial or interethnic. These marriages are currently protected by previous rulings of the Supreme Court. But current or future Courts could overturn these protections. Thirty-five states have bans on same-sex marriages on their books. Many of these bans would go into effect if rulings such as Obergefell v. Hodges were overturned. Interracial marriages could also come under threat by future Courts, without the protection of a federal law.
As stated in the Respect for Marriage Act, “millions of people, including interracial and same-sex couples, have entered into marriages and have enjoyed the rights and privileges associated with marriage. Couples joining in marriage deserve to have the dignity, stability, and ongoing protection that marriage affords to families and children”. Though not perfect, the Respect for Marriage Act will help to preserve some of these rights and privileges.
Sometimes good things do come out of Washington D.C. One of them is the Respect for Marriage Act, just in time for the holidays. If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com. Thanks, Armchair American  The Russian invasion of Ukraine started nine months ago and has not gone according to Vladimir Putin’s military plans. After several military setbacks, it has turned into a brutal war of ruthless destruction on Ukraine’s non-military infrastructure and civilian populations.
In October the Russians escalated their destruction of energy infrastructure across Ukraine using missiles and drones. Last week Russia launched its largest missile attack to date, hitting power plants, substations, natural gas facilities, and waterworks. Over 50% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been damaged, leaving widespread blackouts and millions of civilians without heat, power or water. On November 15, 2022 a missile hit the Polish village of Prezewodow, about four miles from the Ukrainian border. The subsequent explosion killed two people. Initially the missile was reported to have been launched by Russian forces. This triggered an intense 24-hour investigation into the incident by NATO officials and NATO member Poland. A deliberate attack by Russia on Poland would have triggered a response by the NATO Alliance, possibly dragging the United States into the war.  Russia denied responsibility for the missile explosion in Poland, but the missile was Russian made, heightening tensions between Russian and NATO countries. Fortunately, tensions quickly subsided when the following day a top NATO official and Poland’s president reported that a Ukrainian air-defense missile, not a Russian weapon, had most likely caused the deadly explosion on Polish territory. Air defense systems within the Ukraine were activated on November 15th in response to Russia’s biggest wave of missile strikes of the war. Ukraine fired many surface-to-air missiles that day to shoot down the Russian missiles, and one accidentally landed in Poland. Allies quickly came to Ukraine’s defense, pointing the blame squarely at Russia. “Let me be clear. This is not Ukraine’s fault,” said Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary general. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.” A statement from the White House said “it is clear that the party ultimately responsible for this tragic incident is Russia, which launched a barrage of missiles on Ukraine specifically intended to target civilian infrastructure. Ukraine had, and has, every right to defend itself”.
Deliberate attacks on civilians or the infrastructure vital to their survival are war crimes as defined by the 1949 Geneva Conventions and ratified by all member states of the United Nations. The actions leading to the deaths of the two Polish civilians were not the first war crimes perpetrated by Russian forces on the civilians in and around Ukraine, and they won’t be the last. As I write this, Russian missiles are raining down on critical infrastructure sites all over Ukraine. This is an effort to bring the civilian population to its knees as cold winter weather begins to settle in. These are the same tactics used by Russian forces in Chechnya and Syria. As military efforts failed, the deliberate and brutal attacks on civilians and infrastructure began to escalate. According to the prosecutor general of Ukraine, at least 8,300 civilians have been killed in the war, including 437 children. Well over 10,000 civilians have been injured and millions have been displaced. We are witnessing cold blooded murder.
As I wrote in my blog “Putin’s War”, the International Criminal Court is impotent to prosecute Russia for war crimes. Therefore, the United Nations should act forcefully to hold Russia responsible for its crimes. Russia should be removed from the Security Council and have its United Nations membership revoked. If these actions require the rechartering of the United Nations, so be it.  This week the European Parliament designated Russia a state sponsor of terror. This move is largely symbolic, but it is a step in the right direction. But much more needs to be done. Russia’s actions in Ukraine are immoral, criminal, and outside the norms of civilized behavior. Russia must be stopped, and it’s president Vladimir Putin, convicted of war crimes.  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  Votes in several House races are still being counted, but one thing is already clear. The 2022 midterm elections were a victory for the democratic process and election integrity in this country. The Democrats have retained the majority in the Senate, and the Republicans will take the leadership role in the House of Representatives by a narrow margin. Politics aside, all fair-minded Americans should be breathing a sigh of relief. There were few, if any, incidences of violence in and around polling places, and with the exception of some armed “poll watchers” in Arizona, voter intimidation was not a problem. The vast majority of candidates who lost their races graciously conceded to their opponents. A move toward normalcy? Let’s hope so. This blog is about some of my takeaways fr0m the midterm elections.  The Democrat Party Defies the Odds: Midterm elections are usually a referendum on the sitting president, but this one was a referendum on former President Donald Trump. Most of the polls and pundits got it wrong by predicting a “red wave” which would have given the Republicans a large majority in the House and possibly the Senate. With 40-year high inflation and President Biden’s approval rating hovering around 40%, Republicans stumbled badly in not performing better than they did. So how did the President manage to have the best midterms of any president in 20 years? Let’s take a look.  Abortion and Reproductive Rights: When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed the constitutional right to an abortion, it was celebrated as a major victory by many conservative Republicans. But to many Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans, this was seen as an attack on personal freedoms and reproductive rights. This issue motivated many to vote in the midterms, including many young voters under the age of 45 who lean heavily Democrat. In all five states where abortion related issues were on the ballot, voters chose to protect abortion rights. But abortion wasn’t the only thing on voters’ minds. As summer turned to fall, the issue of abortion rights began to fade as inflation and economic issues took center stage.  Threats to Democracy: In a September speech, President Biden delivered a blistering attack on Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans, who he characterized as extremists and a threat to democracy. The speech was considered provocative and divisive by most Republicans, and not helpful by some within the President’s own party. But the message resonated with many Democrats and Independents, and became a major messaging point for Democrats on the campaign trail. The recent violent attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband was a brutal reminder of the dangers of extremism and toxic rhetoric.  The Trump Factor: In recent days many in the Republican Party have attributed their underperformance in the midterms to poor candidates and bad messaging. Although Donald Trump will never admit it, much of this lies squarely on his shoulders.  Poor Candidates: Several of the candidates backed by Donald Trump failed in key races across the country. The main attributes of a Trump backed candidate are, total loyalty to him, and a belief that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Trump’s support was critical in getting these candidates across the finish line in primary races when the base of the party vote in large numbers. But many of the Trump backed candidates lacked political experience, qualifications, and competence, which are crucial to winning a general election.  Trump handed the Senate to the Democrats by backing the following wholly unqualified candidates in races that could have been won by more qualified Republican candidates: Blake Masters in Arizona, Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and Herschel Walker in Georgia. Herschel Walker will face the Democrat Raphael Warnock in a run-off election on December 6, 2022. The Democrats will maintain the leadership in the Senate regardless of the outcome of this race, which I think will go to the much more qualified and competent, Raphael Warnock.  Trump’s backing of fellow election denier Adam Laxalt in the Nevada Senate race failed to secure a win against the vulnerable Democrat incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. Even Kari Lake, the MAGA Superstar and vocal election denier, couldn’t win the open governor’s seat in Arizona with the adoring support of Donald Trump.  Bad Messaging: Donald Trump is extremely popular among the base of the Republican Party where his stale message of a rigged 2020 election plays well. The Republican base votes in large numbers in primary elections, helping candidates who embrace Trump and his stolen election lie. As the midterms have shown, election denial is not a winning message during a general election. What the midterm elections have made crystal clear is that attacking the integrity of American elections is not a winning strategy. General elections are about policies, not personalities or past grievances. The winning messages for the Republicans included high inflation, crime, and problems at the border. But these were overshadowed by talk of stolen elections, conspiracy theories, and investigations to come. Fortunately for democracy, every 2020 election denier who sought to become the top election official in a critical background state lost their election. This proved once again that MAGA extremism doesn’t play well to a general audience. The Road Ahead for the Republican Party  Congress: With thirteen House races yet to be decided, it appears that sometime tomorrow the Republicans will secure the 218 seats required to win the majority in the House of Representatives. What is less clear is who will be the next Speaker of the House. Kevin McCarthy is the leading candidate to become the Republican leader in the House. But with such a slim majority he will have to fight for the speakership, which will be voted on by the full House on January 3, 2023. McCarthy will need at least 218 votes to become speaker. A tall order with such a small majority of Republican held seats. Many in the pro-Trump House Freedom Caucus, which includes Marjorie Taylor Greene and Jim Jordan, have already indicated that they will withhold support for McCarthy unless he concedes to their requests. Other factions within the House Republican Caucus will no doubt seize the opportunity to push forward their agendas. With at least 150 election deniers elected to fill House seats during this election cycle, whoever the next speaker is will have a difficult time keeping this crowd in check.  Donald Trump is Not Going Away: As far as Donald Trump is concerned, he is the leader of the Republican Party, and any shortfalls in the midterms were not his fault. In order to punctuate this point, in defiance of many Republican stalwarts, Donald Trump announced today his candidacy for President of the United States in 2024.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis: If there was any type of red wave during the midterms it was in Florida. Republican Governor Ron DeSantis easily beat his Democrat challenger by nearly 20 points. The Republicans won supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and Florida picked up four additional Republican seats in the House of Representatives. DeSantis is seen as the main challenger to Donald Trump for the Republican Party's 2024 presidential nomination. Although DeSantis has not made his intentions known about running for president, he has certainly gotten under the skin of Donald Trump. Trump’s early announcement about his 2024 candidacy was clearly designed to blunt DeSantis’ rising star. Even before Trump announced his candidacy, he began taking swipes at DeSantis, and true to Trump’s adolescent ways, he coined a derogatory nickname for him, “Ron De-Sanctimonious”. I think that it will turn out to be a battle royal for the soul of the Republican Party, and for the sake of the party, I hope that DeSantis runs.  Team Normal or MAGA Republicans: After the disappointing midterms, the Republican Party is very much at a crossroads. Do the Republicans continue to embrace Donald Trump, or do they see the midterm defeats as a wakeup call and go in a different direction? If recent history is any guide, Trump will continue to enjoy enormous influence within his party, and he will not go away until he is rejected by Republican voters.
There are many Republican legislators and governors who would clearly like to move beyond Trump and his extremist rhetoric. Wyoming Republican Liz Cheney called the midterm results “a clear victory for Team Normal”, and a step in the right direction. Republican Senator Mitt Romney, perhaps the captain of Team Normal, urged Republicans to work with Democrats on issues critical to the American people. Romney acknowledged that it would be counterproductive to “pursue pointless investigations, messaging bills, threats and government shutdowns”. Let’s hope that Republican legislators and voters take Romney’s message to heart. The results of the 2022 midterm elections should bolster Americans’ faith in the integrity of elections and in democracy itself. It has been a good month for democracy and a bad one for political divisiveness and extremist rhetoric. Let’s hope that Team Normal can expand its ranks within the Republican Party, and that the new Congress will work for the benefit of the people, and not their party. If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com. Thanks, Armchair American  Scream queen Jamie Lee Curtis has just appeared in her final movie of the “Halloween” franchise. But not to worry, there are plenty of real-life scream queens to haunt our dreams. The foremost is the far-right conspiracy theorist Marjorie Taylor Greene who is masquerading as a member of Congress. Normally I wouldn’t waste my time writing about a person I don’t respect, don’t agree with, and who represents a cancer within the Republican Party. But rather than becoming marginalized for her outrageous views and shunned by her political party, Greene’s star is shining brighter than ever and her influence within the Republican Party is alarming. She represents a real danger to our democracy and she shouldn’t be ignored. Why? Because the Republicans are heavily favored to win back the majority in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections next month. The next Republican Speaker of the House, presumably Kevin McCarthy, will need the support of the Trump wing of the party. There is no more vocal supporter of Donald Trump and his lies about the stolen election, than Marjorie Taylor Greene.  Who is Marjorie Taylor Greene? She is a first term congresswoman from the mostly white and rural 14th congressional district in northwest Georgia. Greene is a member of the Republican Party and a very vocal supporter of former president Donald Trump. She frequently claims that Trump won the 2020 presidential election in a landslide and that the election was stolen from him. Greene arrived in Congress with no previous political experience and describes herself as a “Christian Nationalist”. What she did bring to Congress was a lot of baggage stemming from her support for far-right conspiracy theories, which she freely shared on social media. Some of her most outrageous posts supporting white supremacy, antisemitism, QAnon, and Pizzagate, to name a few, have been taken down.  Upon entering Congress Greene quickly established herself as a Democrat foil. She voted against certifying the election of Joe Biden, filed articles of impeachment against President Biden for dereliction of duty, and has antagonized several Democrat members of Congress. Barely a month into her congressional term Greene was stripped of her two committee assignments in response to her extremist statements and endorsement of political violence. Eleven Republicans as well as all Democrats in the House voted for her removal from all committee assignments. A formal censor of Greene has been referred to the House Ethics Committee.  Without any committee assignments Greene has been very busy, appearing on right-wing media outlets like Newsmax and Steve Bannon’s “War Room”. She has also become a prodigious fundraiser, bringing in more money in the past year than all but three other House Republicans. In 2021 she raised over $7.4 million, mostly from small donors. Corporations have mostly shunned Greene for her outrageous views. Greene has become a huge draw at Republican events, and she has been very active on the campaign trail. She has recently stumped for other MAGA firebrands such as Arizona Gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, and J.D. Vance, the Republican candidate for the Ohio Senate seat. Greene is a regular at Trump rallies, firing up the faithful for her political hero Donald Trump.  Views Held by Marjorie Taylor Green 2020 Presidential Election: The election was stolen from Donald Trump making Joe Biden an illegitimate president. January 6th Capitol Riot: Antifa was responsible for the riot, and the FBI is to be blamed for possibly instigating the violence. She voted against awarding police officers who defended the Capitol that day the Congressional Gold Medal. Abortion: Should be outright banned and anyone providing abortion services should be tried for murder. Climate Change: Advocates eliminating any and all laws intended to address climate change. COVID-19: Opposed to mask-wearing, and was fined over $100,000 for refusing to wear a mask on the House floor during the pandemic. Greene claims that COVID-19 is not dangerous for non-obese people and those under 65. She has refused to get vaccinated, calling the vaccine ineffective at best and possibly responsible for killing people. Greene was kicked off of Twitter for spreading misinformation about COVID-19. It will be interesting to see if Elon Musk allows her back on the platform. FBI: Should be defunded for the raid on Mar-a-Lago. Gun Rights: All gun-control laws should be overturned. She has introduced legislation to abolish the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). Immigration: Through the “Protect America First Act”, which she introduced in Congress last year, Greene calls for the suspension of all immigration into the United States for four years. She advocates building the border wall and naming it after Donald Trump, and cutting off federal funding to sanctuary cities. Religion: America should have a Christian government and prayer should return to public schools.  No Lone Voice in the Wilderness: Since joining Congress, Greene’s views have not moderated. If anything, they have become more extreme. Rather than being ostracized for her views, more Republicans in and out of Congress have shifted their views to be more in line with hers. It is important to remember that 139 Republican members of the House of Representatives voted to dispute the Electoral College count on January 6, 2021. Greene is a member of the Freedom Caucus, the most conservative caucus within the House Republican Conference. This group of at least 44 members of the House is a powerful far-right voting bloc. Its members are among Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters within Congress. If the Republicans regain control of the House, many within this group will gain leadership positions in the new Congress.  Kevin McCarthy’s New Best Friend: On September 23, 2022 Greene sat directly behind Kevin McCarthy as the Republican House leader announced his legislative agenda at a manufacturing facility in Pennsylvania. In recent months McCarthy has invited Greene to high-level policy meetings, such as a discussion about the National Defense Authorization Act. According to Greene, in order for McCarthy to be an effective speaker of the House and to please the base, “ he’s going to give me a lot of power and a lot of leeway. And if he doesn’t, they’re going to be unhappy about it.” McCarthy has reported to have spoken to Greene about a possible leadership position, which she neither confirms or denies. But according to Greene, “I don’t have to have a leadership position. I think I already have one, without having one.” Scary, but probably true.  What to Expect Under Republican Leadership in the House: Kevin McCarthy would probably sell his soul to the devil to become the next Speaker of the House of Representatives. That is why he is aligning with Marjorie Taylor Green and the Freedom Caucus. Under Speaker McCarthy, the House will utilize its investigative authority to avenge the wrongs done to Donald Trump, investigate Hunter Biden’s business dealings in Ukraine, and possibly go after companies that stopped donating to the Republican Party after January 6, 2021.  At the top of Marjorie Taylor Greene’s agenda will be the impeachment of President Joe Biden, Attorney General Merrick Garland, and Secretary of Homeland Security, Alejandro Mayorkas. The Republicans will certainly disband the January 6th Committee, and minimize or reject any recommendations that the committee makes. Republicans in Congress will work to block President Biden’s agenda and attempt to pull back some of the initiatives that the President has championed. But the main focus of House Republicans will be to prevent President Biden from winning a second term.  The Republican Party had their opportunity to marginalize Marjorie Taylor Greene and bar her from the House Republican Conference. They could have endorsed and funded a 2022 primary opponent against her. But they allowed Greene to stay within the Republican tent, perhaps to appease Donald Trump, which seems to have normalized her. The Republicans’ embrace of Donald Trump’s lies and the fringe views of Marjorie Taylor Greene, has ushered in a dangerous chapter in America’s political life. Greene has turned political rhetoric into a dangerous weapon. In her opinion, Democrats are not just wrong, they are evil, and left leaning Democrats are no longer Socialists, but members of the Communist Party out to destroy our country. If Greene is given any type of leadership position in Congress, it will come back to haunt the Republican Party. But even worse, it could become a national nightmare. Greene’s style of politics will only lead to further division, hate, and violence. The attack on Speaker Pelosi’s husband Paul on Friday is the latest example of this.  Right-minded people can prevent Congress from becoming a real horror show. This means being informed, voting in the upcoming election, and holding elected officials accountable for their words and deeds. This Halloween let’s keep the scream queens in scary movies and out of positions of power.
If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com. Thanks,  President Biden would love for the COVID pandemic to be over, as we all would. But declaring the pandemic over during a television interview doesn’t make it so. This topic has become more real to me in recent days. Last week I tested positive for COVID-19 after returning from a trip to Yellowstone National Park. The President is correct to conclude that in the minds of many Americans the pandemic is over, and they have moved on. To bolster this notice, infection rates, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19 have dropped significantly over the past two months. But according to the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker, on average, over 300 Americans are dying from COVID-19 every day. This and other troubling developments may show that President Biden was a little premature in declaring the pandemic over.  Winter is Coming: The autumn and winter months bring colder weather to much of the Untied States. These are the months when children are back in school and people gather in large numbers for holiday celebrations. Cold weather leads to more indoor gatherings, a major reason for the increase in transmission of respiratory diseases such as COVID-19.  Worrisome Trends in Europe: COVID-19 infections are trending higher across Europe, and Europe tends to precede the United States by about four to six weeks. For the week ending October 9, 2022, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control reported widespread increases in all COVID-19 indicators, including infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.  Emergence of Variants: The last major variant to emerge was BA.5, a subvariant of Omicron. It peaked in July, and according to the CDC’s latest projections, BA.5 represents approximately 68% of the circulating strains of the virus in the United States. The World Health Organization is currently monitoring over 300 different variants. Of most concern are the variants XBB, BQ.1.1, and its sibling BQ.1. According to Yunlong Richard Cao, of Peking University in Beijing, these are the most antibody-evasive strains ever tested. In the lab, antibody therapies such as Evusheld, don’t work against these new variants. Infections due to BQ.1.1 in the United Kingdom and other European countries are increasing at an alarming rate. The highly transmissible BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are now spreading in the United States and are causing about 10% of new COVID-19 infections. This could be the next variant wave that hits this winter.  Low Acceptance of Boosters: Only about 40% of U.S. adults have received a booster (3rd shot) after they received their original two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. The new bivalent booster, released last month, has received a cool reception from the general public. Less than 5% of adults have gotten it. More troubling is the indication that only about one-third of adults are very likely to get the new booster, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll.  Best Defense Against COVID: Most people in the United States received their original COVID-19 vaccine in 2021. The protection offered from the original doses decline with the passage of time. These original vaccines were not developed to protect against the new variants that are now circulating in the population. Vaccines and boosters remain our best defense against serious illness and death from COVID-19. The new bivalent booster was designed to be effective against the BA.4 and BA.5 variants of the virus that causes COVID-19. Therefore, it should provide protection against the new variants BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, which are descendants of BA.5 According to Dr. Ashish Jha, head of the White House COVID task force, 70% of people dying from COVID-19 are age 75 and over. The vast majority of those people are either not up to date on vaccines, or are not receiving treatments such as Paxlovid when they have breakthrough infections, according to Dr. Jha. In other words, most deaths due to COVID-19 could be prevented.  Cautionary Tale: Let my recent trip to Yellowstone National Park, where I contracted COVID-19, be a cautionary tale. For the past two and a half years I had done all the right things to protect myself. I got all the required COVID-19 vaccines and boosters, wore face masks whenever I went into a store or other public place, and practiced social distancing. Eating at an indoor restaurant or attending an indoor show were out of the question. Two weeks prior to setting off for Yellowstone I received the new bivalent booster shot, and continued to mask in most indoor settings. During our visit to Yellowstone, we wore face masks in indoor settings such as visitor centers. We ate breakfast in the hotel room, and took picnic lunches when exploring the park during the day. We chose early October to visit Yellowstone to avoid the summer crowds. But this is also the time of year when nighttime temperatures fall dramatically, and many of the lodging and dining options are closed. On the few occasions that we ate indoors we found ourselves in crowded dining facilities with people from all over the United States and other regions of the world. None of the wait staff wore face masks and neither did the vast majority of diners. Despite all the precautions, I fell victim to this highly contagious virus.  I can attest to the fact that vaccines and boosters are not enough to fully protect you against COVID-19, particularly as we begin to gather indoors. Other public health measures such as masking, social distancing and handwashing, need to continue. I know that COVID fatigue is real, and the prospect of wearing face masks indoors is not popular. But I think that the percentage of the population vaccinated with the bivalent booster and the amount of indoor masking, will determine if COVID-19 hits in a wave or a whimper this winter. President Biden may have declared the COVID pandemic to be over, but the virus has other ideas. As new variants emerge and cold weather forces people indoors, this is not the time to let your guard down.   If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  Earlier this month Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had 48 migrants taken from a shelter in San Antonio, Texas and flown to the island of Martha’s Vineyard in Massachusetts. Was this a shrewd political move or a despicable act which preyed upon the vulnerabilities of desperate migrants? Probably both. The actions of DeSantis were clearly immoral and probably criminal. There are currently several investigations and lawsuits into the actions of DeSantis which will take months, if not years, to unravel. But in the meantime, the Florida Governor has succeeded in grabbing national headlines, delighting the Republican base, and causing outrage among Democrats.  In addition to increasing his own profile, DeSantis has spotlighted how the problems at the southern border are a huge vulnerability for the Biden Administration and an energizing issue for most Republicans. For the rest of us, this episode has shined a light on important issues that Congress has failed to adequately address. Immigration policies in this country are broken, causing security issues at the border, untold misery on migrants attempting to seek asylum, and chaos for our border states. Only Congress can fix this mess.  Scope of the Current Problem: DeSantis’ political stunt succeeded in focusing our attention on the massive surge of migrants who have been apprehended crossing the U.S. southern border this year. According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, more than 2.3 million migrants have been arrested during the 2022 fiscal year, which ends on September 30. This is the most arrests in our history. The surge in migration is being fueled by people fleeing the violence and poverty in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba. Over half of the migrants arrested were immediately sent back to Mexico or their country of origin. But many of those who remain apply for asylum or another humanitarian status. These people, like the Venezuelans sent to Martha’s Vineyard by DeSantis, can stay in this country pending a court hearing. It can often take several years for asylum cases to be resolved. In the meantime, the migrants are free to stay and travel within the United States. Dealing with the influx of migrants flowing through legal, as well as illegal, points along the border, has overwhelmed border communities. Texas has taken the brunt of it, but California, Arizona and New Mexico have also been impacted.  Why Doesn’t the Government Act? Immigration and border issues are multifaceted and very tough to resolve politically. The last time a piece of comprehensive immigration legislation was signed into law was during the Reagan Administration in 1986. Rather than coming together to solve the problem, the major parties use the issue as a political weapon against the other side. As a result, most of the policies currently in place have come from judicial decrees or executive orders from recent presidents. This is a patchwork approach, and not very effective. For more information on the immigration debate and a good review of executive actions taken by the past few administrations, follow this link to the Council on Foreign Relations.  Has President Biden Made the Problem Worse? In a word, probably. Joe Biden campaigned on taking a much more humane approach to the southern border than Donald Trump did. True to his word, the President took dozens of actions during his first few months in office to overturn many of Trump’s immigration policies. These included ending travel bans from many Muslim countries, halting construction of the border wall, lifting the suspension of green card processing, increasing the number of visas issued to immigrants, and speeding the reunification of migrant families. Some of Biden’s efforts to overturn Trump’s policies have been blocked by judges, and others are still undergoing judicial review. All of these actions have signaled to migrants that the United States is a kinder and gentler place now that Trump is out of office. It's hard to argue that President Biden’s immigration policies didn't encourage more immigration to the United States.  So, What is to Be Done? The surge of migrants at the southern border requires a surge of federal resources to address the crisis. The Customs and Border Protection Agency needs to be beefed up as quickly as possible, and the border states need federal dollars and personnel to deal with the influx of migrants into their states. This is a national issue, and the border states need our support to humanely deal with the suffering along the border. The federal government needs to provide the financial resources required for case officers and immigration courts to more efficiently handle the huge backlog of applicants. If the United States can find billions of dollars to help Ukraine, and rightly so, it can find the billions needed to address some of the most urgent immigration and border issues. In the short-term, President Biden will continue to manage border and immigration efforts through the executive branch. But this a patchwork approach, and any policies put into place can easily be reversed by the next administration. The real solution is for Congress to negotiate a comprehensive package of reforms which address border security, the demand for high and low-skilled workers, the legal status of the millions of undocumented immigrants living in the country, and the enforcement of immigration laws.  Immigration law is complex, and it was not my intention to do a thorough examination of it here. There are many good references for those who are interested in taking a deeper dive into this topic. This site provides a good summary of the immigration laws in our country. The actions of Florida Governor DeSantis were reprehensible and some day he may pay a steep price for them. But in the meantime, his political star has risen. The one silver lining to this episode is that it has shined a light on an issue that deserves more of our attention. Border security and effectively managing immigration is one of the most important duties of the federal government, and it has failed. This should not be a political issue, but an American issue.  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  It is a mystery why former President Donald Trump kept hundreds of classified documents and other government records at his Mar-a-Lago club. It is no mystery why the government wanted those documents returned. It has become clear in recent weeks from the release of previously sealed court documents, that the FBI was fully justified in retrieving those documents. Most Americans were unaware of government efforts to retrieve documents from Trump until August 8, 2022, when the FBI executed a search at Mar-a-Lago. During the search the FBI retrieved more than 100 classified records, some of which are so sensitive that few people in government have the security clearance to view them.  The FBI’s search was not a partisan attack on the former president. It was not an attempt to discredit him and his allies ahead of the mid-term elections. Trump has called the FBI’s search at Mar-a-Lago an unprovoked “raid”, and totally unnecessary because he and his attorneys had been cooperative with the FBI and Department of Justice (DOJ) every step of the way. Don’t believe this nonsense. The National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) and the DOJ had been attempting to retrieve Presidential records and classified government documents, unlawfully held by Trump, for well over a year. Trump’s refusal to hand over the documents prompted the DOJ to secure a subpoena to search Mar-a-Lago and retrieve the documents. A lot of what the public knows about the ongoing investigation into Trump’s mishandling of government documents comes from the publication on August 26, 2022 of the affidavit used to obtain the warrant to search Mar-a-Lago. Nearly half of this 38- page affidavit was redacted to protect sensitive information and witnesses involved in the ongoing investigation. But there is still a lot that is known that should give any fair-minded American reason for concern.  Why This Matters:
 Time-Line of On-Going Investigation: May 6, 2021: After determining that it was missing about two dozen boxes of documents from Trump’s presidency, the NARA requested their return from Trump. The effort was stonewalled by the Trump team for months. December 2021: A Trump representative informed the NARA that 12 boxes of records had been found at Mar-a-Lago and could now be retrieved. January 18, 2022: Agents from the NARA picked up 15 boxes of Presidential records from Mar-a-Lago. It would later be revealed that 14 of the boxes contained classified documents. Over 700 pages of classified documents were found, including 25 documents marked “TOP SECRET”. February 9, 2022: Based upon the fact that classified materials had been potentially mishandled and improperly stored at Mar-a-Lago, the NARA’s Office of the Inspector General referred the matter to the DOJ. Soon after, the FBI opened a criminal investigation into the matter. April 12, 2022: The NARA informed Trump of its intention to provide the documents recovered from Mar-a-Lago to the FBI. To appease Trump’s attorneys, the documents were not provided to the FBI until May 12, 2022. May 11, 2022: The DOJ issued a subpoena for additional records. June 3, 2022: In response to the subpoena, a Trump attorney handed over more documents to three FBI agents and a DOJ attorney at Mar-a-Lago. Of the 38 documents handed over, 16 were marked “SECRET”, and 17 were marked “TOP SECRET”. No explanation was given for why these documents had not been previously turned over to the NARA. The FBI agents were told that all the White House records had been stored in a single room. Trump’s attorney gave the agents a signed letter certifying that a “diligent search” had been completed and that no government documents remained. June 8, 2022: The DOJ sent a letter to Trump’s attorney requesting that “all the boxes that were moved from the White House to Mar-a-Lago be preserved in that room in their current condition until further notice.” August 5, 2022: The DOJ filed an application for a search and seizure warrant for Mar-a-Lago, citing “probable cause” that additional Presidential records and records containing classified information remained in various locations at the club. Federal Judge Bruce Reinhart approved the application that day.   August 8, 2022: The FBI executed the search at Mar-a-Lago and seized 36 items of evidence, including more than 100 classified records. The evidence was found in the storage room as well as in Trump’s office. It would latter be learned that some of the documents were so sensitive that even FBI counterintelligence agents and DOJ attorneys required additional security clearances before they could review them. Trump and his allies called the search a “weaponization” of the justice system, and soon after the FBI reported a surge in threats against its agents. August 26, 2022: Upon the order of Judge Reinhart, a redacted version of the affidavit used to obtain the search warrant for Mar-a-Lago was released. The affidavit revealed the DOJ’s reasoning for requesting the search warrant. According to the affidavit there was “probable cause to believe that evidence of obstruction will be found” at Mar-a-Lago, suggesting that there were efforts underway to impede the recovery of government documents. The affidavit listed three criminal laws that may have been violated as the basis for the investigation. The federal laws citied were the Espionage Act, obstruction under section 1519 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, and the willful retention of national security and other records that rightfully belonged to the NARA. The affidavit also revealed that the government had interviewed a significant number of civilian witnesses who had information pertaining to the movement of documents to and within Mar-a-Lago, and knowledge of Trump’s post-presidency actions.  September 5, 2022: District Judge Aileen M. Cannon announced that she will grant Trump’s request to appoint a “special master” to examine the documents seized at Mar-a-Lago. The role of the special master will be to identify any material that might be protected by attorney-client or executive privilege. This move prevents the DOJ from further review of the materials in question and using them in the ongoing investigation, until the review by the special master is complete. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence may still continue to review the material to make an assessment of the potential damage that may have resulted from the manner in which the documents were transported and stored. September 6, 2022: The Washington Post reported that some documents seized at Mar-a-Lago detailed top-secret U.S. operations and nuclear capabilities of some foreign nations. This level of intelligence is usually restricted to the President, some cabinet secretaries, and near-cabinet level positions with the highest security clearance. September 8, 2022: The DOJ threatens to file an appeal with the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals if Judge Cannon doesn’t restore their access to the documents seized at Mar-a-Lago. The documents seized at Mar-a-Lago and Trump’s culpability is an ongoing story and will be played out over the months ahead. Even if a special master is not appointed, I think that the DOJ will take a cautious approach to the investigation. Trump is an incendiary character and the mid-term elections are less than 60 days away. The last thing the DOJ wants, and the country needs, is for any of its actions to influence the upcoming elections in any way. It appears as if the most sensitive documents in Trumps possession have been recovered, and there will be ample time to build a case and issue indictments if the evidence justifies it.  The FBI was fully justified in searching Mar-a-Lago and retrieving Presidential documents and classified materials stored there. Donald Trump had several months to turn these records over to the NARA, but he didn’t. This was not a partisan attack, but a legal process precipitated by his own actions. The search at Mar-a-Lago would never have taken place if he had simply followed the law and returned all of the documents that belonged to the NARA.
Even if Trump had declassified the documents, as he has claimed, they were still not legally his. This is no simple dispute over the storage of documents, as the Trump camp would like you to believe. It is criminality. If Donald Trump is a victim, he is a victim of his own ignorance and arrogance. His callous disregard for the rule of law has once again landed him in hot water, and I think this time he is going to get burned. Updated 9-16-22: On September 15, 2022 Judge Cannon appointed a former chief federal judge in New York, Raymond J. Dearie, to be the special master to review the documents seized at Mar-a-Lago. Cannon ruled that the special master should examine the documents with classified materials and give priority to them over the non-classified documents taken from Mar-a-Lago. The Judge has given the special master until November 30th of this year to complete the review, and has denied the use of the records by prosecutors until after the review. This is a good thing in my opinion. It will cool things down a bit and get us past the mid-term elections. I think that indictments will eventually result from this case, so it is important to get it right and not be perceived as in any way political. Updated 9/24/2022: On September 21, 2022 the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit in Atlanta sided with the DOJ to prevent the special master from evaluating the roughly 100 classified documents seized from Mar-a-Lago. This will allow the FBI to use the documents in its ongoing criminal investigation. Trump continues to claim that he declassified the documents before they left the White House. According to Trump, he can declassify material “even by thinking about it.” That would be a frightening prospect if true. What else can a president do simply by thinking about it, issue pardons or getting into a military confrontation? The Appeals Court was not moved by the Trump team’s argument that the documents had been declassified. They couldn’t produce any evidence to back up the claim. In any case, the issue of declassifying the documents is irrelevant. As the court stated, “the declassification argument is a red herring because declassifying an official document would not change its content or render it personal.” Now the special master can get on with the work of reviewing all of the non-classified material taken from Mar-a-Lago to determine if any may be covered by claims of attorney-client privilege or executive privilege. The special master has until the end of November to complete his work. Updated 6/8/2023: Today the special counsel investigating Donald Trump’s handling of classified documents that he brought to Mar-a-Lago has handed down seven indictments against the former president. Trump has been summoned to appear at the Federal Courthouse in Miami on Tuesday at 3 PM to answer to these charges. We will not know the full extent of the charges until then. But they will be related to violations of the Espionage Act, making false statements and obstruction of justice. Those opposed to Donald Trump will gloat in triumph, and those who support him will call this an outrageous witch-hunt and an illegal use of the Department of Justice to bring him down. There is nothing to celebrate here. This is not good for the country, and we need to remember that Donald Trump has the presumption of innocence until proven guilty. He deserves his day in court. Donald Trump and his allies will assert that Mike Pence and Joe Biden did the same thing by keeping classified documents in their personal possession after they left office. But the differences couldn’t be starker. When it was discovered that classified documents had been discovered in the possession of former Vice President Mike Pence and President Joe Biden, the FBI was notified and given full access to locations where any and all documents could be stored. There was no attempt to prevent the FBI from retrieving the documents. Donald Trump misled the FBI and prevented it from obtaining government documents that he had in his possession for well over a year. This forced the FBI’s hand and led to the raid on Mar-a-Lago last year. This is the first federal indictment ever brought against a former president. Stay tuned. If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com. Thanks, Armchair American  Joe Biden is no Donald Trump when it comes to self-promotion. With his low approval ratings and fellow Democrats keeping their distance, you can be forgiven for forgetting that Joe Biden is our President. Donald Trump continues to suck all of the oxygen out of the room, on and off the campaign trail. The recovery of classified documents from Mar-a-Lago has dominated the headlines for weeks, while another major piece of legislation signed into law by the President gets pushed to the back pages. As Trump promotes far-right candidates in the upcoming mid-term elections, and the Republican Party is apoplectic about the “raid” on Mar-a-Lago, President Biden quietly pulls off another major legislative victory.  Legislative Victories:
 Time for Action: Now it is time for the President and the Democrat Party to rally around their latest legislative victory and regain the narrative from the Republicans. The Republicans see the Inflation Reduction Act as a Democrat victory and are desperate to somehow turn it against the President. It is true that calling the bill the “Inflation Reduction Act” is a little disingenuous, but there is a lot of good in this bill. Let’s take a closer look at it now.  Inflation Reduction Act of 2022: This bill should have been titled the “Healthcare, Tax and Climate Bill of 2022”, because that is really what it is. The details of this bill fill over 700 pages and the costs are projected out over ten fiscal years. The $740 billion price tag attached to this bill is confusing and really doesn’t mean much to the average American. Democrat legislators claim that the approximately $440 billion in new spending will be more than offset by new tax hikes on wealthy corporations, reduced drug prices paid by Medicare, and increased taxes recovered by the IRS. If this bill actually brings in more federal revenue than it costs, then yes, it will reduce federal spending and help to lower inflation. But I can’t find any analyst who really believes that this bill will lower inflation. The best that we can hope for is that it pays for itself, and doesn’t exacerbate inflation. Here are some of the major provisions of the bill:  New Spending on Clean Energy and Combating Climate Change: If fully enacted, these initiatives are projected to reduce carbon emissions in the U.S. by up to 40% by 2030. The programs that fall under this category will cost approximately $375 billion over ten years, and fall into four major parts.
 Healthcare Spending:
The Republicans have backed themselves into a corner by being on the side of the pharmaceutical industry and against lower prescription drug prices for seniors. It is hypocritical to say that you are the party of lower government spending, but refuse to allow the Medicare program to lower its costs through negotiations.  Additional IRS Funding: The bill will invest $80 billion over ten years to begin to rebuild the Internal Revenue Service after years of underfunding. If you have ever filed a paper tax return or tried to get an IRS representative on the phone, you understand just how dysfunctional the IRS has become. I have written extensively on this topic in my blog “The IRS Needs Our Love, Not Our Hate”. A significant portion of the new funding will help upgrade phone and computer systems, and ease the administrative logjams now plaguing the IRS. The IRS will also be replacing existing agents who are retiring in droves, and adding new agents to its ranks. I see this is as a positive development. There are hundreds of billions of tax dollars that go uncollected each year due to severe staff shortages. It takes a lot of staff resources to audit and investigate large corporations, complex entities, and cash-based businesses. Don’t fall for the Republican scare tactics flooding the air waves and social media about an army of IRS agents getting ready to breakdown your door. The new funding will focus on tax cheats that have the potential to return large sums of money to the Treasury. If you are an honest taxpayer and earn less than $400,000 a year, your chances of hearing from the IRS are remote. The Republicans are running scared because of the popularity of many of the provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act. They are trying to paint IRS agents as jackbooted thugs, at the beck and call of an out-of- control Biden administration.  15% Minimum Corporate Income Tax: The new minimum tax will apply to a limited number of large publicly held corporations with over a $1 billion in annual profits. There are a lot of ways for companies to manipulate profits, and therefore, what they report to the IRS for tax purposes. To get around this problem, the 15% minimum tax will apply to the book income, or what the company reports to its shareholders. This provision of the bill is expected to bring in approximately $258 billion in new revenue over ten years.  1% Excise Tax on Stock Buybacks: This new corporate tax will apply to the value of a company’s own shares of stock that it repurchases (buybacks). Stock buybacks are often used by publicly held companies to increase the stock price of the remaining shares. This provision of the bill is expected to bring in approximately $74 billion over ten years.  The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 has a lot of good provisions, and will be paying dividends for years to come. One of them will probably not be reducing inflation. But with luck, most of the new spending provisions will be offset by new corporate taxes, higher IRS collections, and lower Medicare spending. The new law will empower the Medicare agency like never before, and demonstrates that the government has the power to do something about exorbitant health care costs. While Donald Trump’s legal troubles mount, and he paints himself as the victim of a partisan witch hunt, Joe Biden has achieved real legislative victories which will benefit current and future Americans. It’s time for Joe Biden to become “cheerleader-in-chief” for his legislative victories. Along with his fellow Democrats, he needs to take to the airwaves and campaign trail to tout his accomplishments.  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  Donald Trump’s rein of terror on the Republican Party continues unabated. Of the ten Republicans who voted to impeach Trump over his involvement in the January 6th Capitol riot, only two have survived to go on to the general election in November. Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming is his latest victim. The fact that Liz Cheney lost her seat in the House of Representatives to a Trump-backed candidate is no surprise to anyone. Cheney is one of Trump’s most outspoken critics in the Republican Party, and is the vice-chair of the Congressional subcommittee investigating January 6th. Denying the results of the 2020 presidential election and downplaying the events at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, are the only political ideologies that matter in the Trump Party. I want to thank Liz Cheney, for being an American first and a Republican second. She sacrificed her House seat by standing up for truth, democracy, and the Constitution. That took courage, a rare commodity in politics today. She has shown that a “principled politician” is not an oxymoron. Liz Cheney demonstrated that patriotism does not mean blind obedience to a political party or a political leader. Rather, it is taking a firm stand against a political onslaught in defense of the rule of law and the principles that this country was founded on. I hope that she continues to stand proud while others in her party call her disloyal, unpatriotic, or un-American. What is un-American is being punished for speaking truth to power, questioning authority, and standing on your principles.  Liz Cheney is down, but not out. This week she announced the creation of a new political action committee, “The Great Task”. According to a Cheney spokesperson, the committee will “educate the American people about the ongoing threat to our Republic, and to mobilize a unified effort to oppose any Donald Trump campaign for President”. Cheney has said that she is considering a run for president in 2024, and this would be the platform to launch her presidential run. Whatever she chooses to do, I am confident that she will continue to lead with integrity and courage.
This country needs more politicians like Liz Cheney. For the sake of the Republican Party, and indeed the country, I hope that she continues to be politically engaged, if for no other reason, to help dispel the falsehoods emanating from the Republican Party. Someday the Republican Party will wake up from its self-induced dystopian nightmare and find Donald Trump nowhere to be seen. But Liz Cheney will still be standing. If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com. Thanks, Armchair American  The largest proportion of American voters identify themselves as independents. These are the voters who do not formally align themselves with a political party, and are also called non-affiliated voters. I fall into this category. According to a 2021 Gallup poll approximately 29% of voters identified as Democrats, 27% as Republicans, and 43% as independents. There are dozens of local, state, and national political parties other than the two majors. The biggest of the “third-parties” are the Libertarian Party, Green Party, and American Independent Party. Most of the third-parties are too narrow in scope to attract enough independent voters to make much of a difference. A newly formed political party called “Forward” is out to change all that. Let’s take a look at this new party and at other ways independent voters may have more influence in the political process.  Forward (FWD): Last month three political organizations announced that they have merged to create a new entity called “Forward”. Forward plans to officially launch as a new political party on September 24, 2022. It will be co-chaired by former Democrat candidate for President Andrew Yang and former Republican Governor of New Jersey Christine Todd Whitman. According to a recent press release, Forward “will be a political home for the majority of Americans who want to move past the era of divisiveness and do-nothing politicians so that our government starts working again”. There tag line is “Not Left. Not Right. Forward”. Forward proposes to reject the divisiveness of the far right and far left and pursue common ground ideas the majority of Americans can support.  This all signs well and good, and a third major political party built on compromise and centrist ideas would be a good thing for America. But third-parties don’t have a great track record in this country. The Democrat and Republican Parties are a duopoly and have become the de facto gate keepers to the political process in the United States.  Third-Party Angst: Most voters choose a candidate from one of the two major political parties rather than “wasting” their vote on a third-party or independent candidate. The current system discourages third-party candidates for fear of the “spoiler effect”. This occurs when the third-party candidate pulls a significant number of votes from a major party candidate, impacting the outcome of the election. Ross Perot received enough of the Republican and independent votes to assure Bill Clinton’s victory over George H.W. Bush in the 1992 Presidential election. Al Gore would have probably beaten George W. Bush in 2000 if not for the votes that went to Green Party candidate Ralph Nader.
Fear of the spoiler effect helps to entrench the two major parties and keeps minor parties and independent candidates from gaining much traction. The result is that voters often have the choice of picking between the lesser of two evils. To get around this problem, Forward is pushing “Ranked-Choice Voting” and “Open Primaries” as part of its platform. I have written about both of these in a previous blog, but the concepts are worth repeating here.  Open Primaries: In an open or nonpartisan primary, everyone who wants to run for a given office can enter the same primary election regardless of their party affiliation. In a true open primary, all candidates would be listed on the same ballot and the election would be open to all voters, regardless of political affiliation. But this is not the case in most states because political parties often “close” their primaries to those not registered with their party. Therefore, many independent voters are either prohibited from voting in party primary elections or face restrictions. Open primaries give all constituents a voice in the election and it moderates the process by forcing politicians to appeal to independents as well as to their base. Closed primaries have the perverse effect of producing elected officials more accountable to their party than their constituents. You can find more information on this important topic at “Open Primaries”, an organization advocating for open primaries. After all, no American should be required to join a political party to exercise their right to vote.  Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV): An election system in which a voter can rank candidates in order of preference. Here’s how it works:
 Is it time for another major political party in this country? I think it is. Whether that major new party is Forward or something else, I think it would be good for democracy. I wish Forward well, and I hope that they succeed. Even if they don’t, I will continue to support RCV and open-primaries. These are nonpartisan approaches that give voters more choice and will help to make our elections more democratic.
If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776@gmail.com. Thanks, Armchair American  Approximately one-third of Americans, including 70% of Republicans, believe that Joe Biden won the presidency due to voter fraud. I didn’t vote for Donald Trump, so I have little credibility telling someone who did what to think. But a group of Republican staffers and officials with staunch conservative credentials has just published the report “Lost, Not Stolen: The Conservative Case that Trump Lost and Biden Won the 2020 Presidential Election”, https://lostnotstolen.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Lost-Not-Stolen-The-Conservative-Case-that-Trump-Lost-and-Biden-Won-the-2020-Presidential-Election-July-2022.pdf.  The authors of the report examined every claim of fraud and misconduct claimed by former President Donald Trump and his advocates. They examined the 64 legal challenges alleging 187 counts of voter fraud, irregularities and procedural deficiencies in the battle ground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. According to the report, the Trump team failed to provide substantive evidence to win any of the legal challenges. The report also concluded that the post-election audits and reviews in each state failed to show any irregularities or fraud that would overturn the election results. There was no evidence of fraud in the 2020 Presidential election on the magnitude necessary to shift the result of the election in any state, let alone the entire nation. The report concluded that “there was no fraud that changed the outcome in even a single precinct. It is wrong, and bad for our country, for people to propagate baseless claims that President Biden’s election was not legitimate.”  Why is this report important? For the same reason that the January 6 committee investigations are important. To get at the truth. If the American people don’t believe that our elections are free and fair, we will lose our democracy. I am under no illusions that the “Lost, Not Stolen” report or the January 6 committee investigations will change the minds of many Trump loyalists. This would take an unequivocal repudiation of Trump by the Republican Party, and perhaps abandonment by the right-wing media which propped him up. I don’t think that the Republican Party has the moral courage to take on Donald Trump, but some of his right-wing media friends are beginning to turn on him.  In recent days, Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post wrote an editorial calling Donald Trump “unworthy to be the country’s chief executive again.” The conservative editorial board of the Wall Street Journal has also turned harshly critical of Donald Trump, calling his actions on January 6, 2021 an utter failure, and a violation of his oath of office. Now if Fox News, another Rupert Murdoch property, were to sour on Trump, I think that his political future would be over. For the Republican Party to remain viable, it needs to move beyond Donald Trump. It discredits the party when a majority of its members lack faith in the 2020 election results based on unsubstantiated claims of a stolen election. It also undermines democracy and the Constitution, which the Republicans claim to be defenders of. To restore its credibility, the Republican Party needs more Liz Cheneys and fewer Jim Jordans.  As Nazi propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels was claimed to have said, “If you tell a big enough lie and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  Congressional leaders are patting themselves on the back for passing a bipartisan bill on new gun regulations. But even before the President signed the bill into law, the Supreme Court overruled a New York law which will make it easier for Americans to own and carry a gun in public. The Republicans view the epidemic of gun violence as a mental illness problem, not as a gun problem. The Democrats’ hopes for meaningful gun reform have been vanquished for the foreseeable future by the Supreme Court’s rigid interpretation of the 2nd Amendment. Let’s take a look at recent developments.
Bipartisan Safer Communities Act: (https://www.murphy.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/bipartisan_safer_communities_act_one_pager.pdf) This bill was signed into law by President Biden on June 25, 2022. Here are the highlights of the new law:
The compromise bill (it is actually more of a capitulation) is seen as a victory by the Democrats who have been working for decades on gun safety legislation. I see the new law as another failure of the Congress to enact meaningful gun reforms. It is little more than a tiny band-aid on a gaping wound that won’t be healed until the 2nd Amendment is repealed or replaced.  Supreme Court Strikes Down New York Gun Law: On June 23, 2022 the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the New York State Rifle and Pistol Association, https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/20-843_7j80.pdf. The Court’s decision overrules a New York law that required adults seeking a permit to carry a concealed weapon in public to demonstrate a need to do so. The Court ruled that the 2nd Amendment provides a broad right of the individual to arm themselves in public, and New York (or any other state) cannot place restrictions on that right. According to the Court’s majority opinion, written by Clarence Thomas, the 2nd Amendment protects “an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home.” He went on to write that “The government must demonstrate that the regulation is consistent with the nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulations.” This decision has ramifications throughout the country, and will bring legal challenges to any current or future gun control measures enacted by the states. The direction of the Supreme Court on gun regulations is now clear. The 2nd Amendment right of the individual to own and bear arms is chiseled in stone, and states have limited authority to restrict that right.  America’s Gun Problem: As much as the Republican Party would like you to believe, the mental health system cannot stop mass shootings in America. Only a small fraction of mass shootings are conducted by people with mental illness. It is very difficult to determine who will commit gun violence, and to focus too much on mental health is a mistake. There are volumes of good research on gun violence conducted by the Rand Corporation, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and many others, if you care to look. David Brooks wrote an interesting article recently, titled “Why Mass Shooters Do the Evil They Do”. I found it very interesting, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/07/opinion/mass-shooters-motive.html.  The only thing that connects all perpetrators of gun violence is access to guns, and America is awash in them. All of the guns used in the high-profile mass shootings this summer were purchased legally. The mental health system cannot solve this problem. If the “Bipartisan Safer Communities Act” is the best that Congress can deliver, we might as well add “gun violence” to the other certainties of American life, “death and taxes”. Don’t let your member of Congress use this new law as an excuse to rest on their laurels. Americans deserve to be safe when they go to school, walk down the street, shop at a grocery store, or attend a 4th of July parade.
Teenager Drinking BeerOne of these two activities is illegal. Which do you think poses the biggest threat to your family? If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  Summer is here, the kids are out of school, and our attention turns to fun in the sun and family vacations. This is the time of the year when the weighty issues of the day are put aside in favor of leisure pursuits. But this summer seems different. The country is in a funk. So, what is going on? COVID numbers are rising again, the war in Ukraine rages on, the stock market is in bear territory, the January 6th subcommittee reminds us daily how fragile our democracy is, and the Supreme Court has just delivered consequential decisions on abortion, gun rights, and the separation of church and state. But the real culprit behind all the unease is inflation!  Inflation-2022 Style: It seems as if the prices on everything have gone through the roof this year. Price increases in grocery stores and at the gas pump have been particularly painful. The annual inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, increased to 8.6% in May, https://www.bls.gov/cpi/. This is the highest rate since December of 1981. Food prices have increased overall by 10.1%, and even higher for meat, poultry, fish, and eggs. Overall energy costs have surged at an annual rate of 30.3%, mostly due to gasoline prices which have climbed 48.7%. Inflation has significantly outpaced the wage gains of recent years, putting a real dent in household budgets. The inflationary period we are in, more than anything else, is on the minds of most Americans.
Econ 101: Economists have sophisticated inflation models which take into account various supply and demand components, employment data, and the money supply. In simple terms, prices generally rise when consumers and businesses demand more goods and services than companies are able, or willing to supply. Normally when demand increases, the supply quickly ramps up to meet the demand, thereby dampening the upward pressure on prices. But these are not normal times, and the economic models can’t explain how inflation shot up from around 2% before the pandemic to 8.6% in May.  How Did We Get Here: In a nutshell, today’s inflation is due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Government’s response to it, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Let’s look at each of these three issues separately.  COVID-19 Pandemic: In the winter and spring of 2020 the world began to shut down, and international borders were closed to travelers and commerce. In the United States, stay-at-home orders were put into place, schools closed, and many “non-essential” businesses were shut down. As a result, millions of people lost their jobs and many small businesses were closed.
Government’s Response to Pandemic: In March of 2020 the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to keep the economy from slowing. That same month President Trump signed into law the $2 trillion CARES Act. Among other things this bill provided payments to all Americans, expanded unemployment benefits, and provided direct payments to state and local governments. In March of 2021, President Biden signed into law the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. This bill essentially doubled down on the CARES Act, providing additional stimulus to the U.S. economy. In all, the Federal Government enacted six major bills, pumping more than $5 trillion dollars into the economy during the pandemic https://ballotpedia.org/Overview_of_federal_spending_during_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic. There is still nearly $1 trillion not yet spent. There is no question that all of the government stimulus in response to the pandemic, particularly the American Rescue Plan coming the heels of the $3 trillion spent during the Trump administration, increased inflation. All of the money pumped into the U.S. economy artificially increased demand for goods and services of all types. This in turn increased the demand for workers, at a time when child care and COVID concerns kept many from reentering the workforce. The tight labor market increased wages, adding to inflationary pressures in all sectors of the economy. In a recently published paper, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimates that the COVID spending bills in the U.S. raised inflation by about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021, https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/march/why-is-us-inflation-higher-than-in-other-countries/. The paper goes on to state that other developed countries are not experiencing the same level of inflation as the United States because they pumped significantly less money into their economies during the pandemic. Time will tell which was the better approach. But in the short-term Americans are suffering.  Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Russia is a major supplier of oil, gas, and metals. Along with Ukraine, it is also a major exporter of wheat and corn. The Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier this year disrupted the production and distribution of these key commodities. These supply disruptions, along with sanctions placed on Russian energy, have pushed energy and other commodity prices higher. The war has also made the shipment of grains from Black Sea ports next to impossible, so more expensive alternatives, including trucks and trains, are being used for transport. It is difficult to say just how much the war in Ukraine has impacted inflation rates in the United States. But there is no doubt that the war is constraining the supply of oil, thus keeping the price of oil and transportation fuels high in the United States. In addition to feeling the pain at the gas pump, consumers are hurt because higher transportation costs have pushed prices higher for food and other essential goods. What Can the Government do About Inflation? Taming inflation requires either reducing demand to meet supply or boosting supply to catch up to demand. This will occur naturally over an extended period of time. But this is an election year and Americans vote on pocket book issues. There are no greater pocket book issues today than grocery and gas prices. The Federal Reserve has already moved to moderate inflation, and the Biden Administration is under tremendous pressure to do something.  Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve has a mandate to maintain price stability and to keep the inflation rate at about 2%. Its main tool to lower inflation is by increasing interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to increased mortgage rates, as well as other consumer and business borrowing costs. Higher borrowing costs generally lead to lower demand, particularly for large ticket items such as autos and houses. Overtime the lower demand will allow prices to come down and stabilize. Last week the Federal reserve increased interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, the largest incremental increase since 1994. This had the impact of pushing the 30-year mortgage rate to about 6%, compared to 3% a year earlier. Credit card and other consumer debt has become more expensive, which should lead to lower consumer spending. This of course is a balancing act. If the Federal Reserve is too aggressive in raising interest rates, the economy could go into recession. But if interest rates remain stubbornly high, consumer purchasing power will continue to erode.  Biden Administration: There is no magic bullet or policy prescription for the Biden Administration to lower the rate of inflation. The administration could decrease excess demand by moderating its spending. It could also decrease demand by increasing taxes on individuals and corporations. Since cutting spending and increasing taxes aren’t politically popular, his best approach would be to help increase of the supply of goods constrained by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
 As long as prices remain high in the grocery stores and gas stations, we will all be singing the summertime blues. Gas prices will come down naturally when the summer driving season ends and demand for gas drops. The Biden Administration has the power to curve its spending and remove unused federal money from the economy to help lower demand. But it will rely on the Federal Reserve to do most of the heavy lifting. The Fed has pledged to keep increasing interest rates until it breaks the back of inflation. Let’s just hope that it doesn’t break the back of the economy.
If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com. Thanks, Armchair American  New Ventura County SealLast November I wrote about the Ventura County Board of Supervisors' subcommittee tasked with redesigning its county seal (cancel-culture-in-california-father-junipero-serra-the-latest-target.html). The current seal included an image of the Mission San Buenaventura and its controversial founder, Father Junípero Serra. A faction within the community favored the removal of these images since, in their view, they represent symbols of oppression of the native peoples. On May 24th the Ventura County Board of Supervisors voted to approve a new county seal which did not include the images of Father Serra or the local mission, https://www.vcstar.com/story/news/2022/05/25/new-ventura-county-seal-features-channel-island-no-mission/9857829002/ Interestingly, the new seal doesn’t depict images of the original inhabitants to the area or any other images on the previous seal. The removal of the controversial images seemed to have been a foregone conclusion from the start. There was no clear consensus within the subcommittee or among the public about the county seal’s redesign. The new county seal shows an image of the Channel Islands along the coast of Ventura County. It appears that the County Board of Supervisors took the easy way out and adopted a new seal which wouldn’t offend anyone. This won’t end the controversy surrounding Father Junípero Serra or the Spanish Mission system in Ventura County. They are important features of California history and should not be erased. We need to own our history, for better or worse, learn from it, and bring in the perspectives of all those impacted by it.  Old Ventura County SealIf you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American  For the past several weeks I have been traveling and taking care of family business on the East Coast. During that time, I didn’t read any newspapers, watch TV news, or scour the internet. But during my self-imposed news blackout I couldn’t avoid the sickening stench of gun violence which has brought our country to its knees. The recent mass shootings in Buffalo, Uvalde, Tulsa, Philadelphia, and Chattanooga have shaken the country to the core. But these recent gun deaths represent only a tiny fraction of the nearly 19,000 that have already occurred this year in the United States. The numbers are staggering. Since the beginning of 2019, over 147,000 people have been killed in this country by guns, https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/. Contrast that number to the combined total of U.S. combat deaths in the Korean, Vietnam, Gulf, Iraq, and Afghanistan wars of 86,698. There have been several times more civilian deaths in the United States by guns than the total civilian casualty rate in Ukraine since the Russian invasion. Ukraine is an active war zone, but the United States is at “peace”. The laws in the United States allow the carnage wrought from guns, and make our streets more dangerous, not safer. The shooters in Buffalo and Uvalde obtained their military style assault weapons legally. The twisted interpretation of the 2nd Amendment and the religious fervor in which gun rights are defended, have brought the country to this sorry state of affairs. I have written extensively on the 2nd Amendment and other gun related issues in my four-part blog series, “Guns in America”. I will not repeat myself here. You can follow this link if you are interested in revisiting the series, https://armchairamerican.com/blog/guns-in-america-part-4-common-sense-gun-reforms.  Arming the “good guys” is a juvenile and pathetic response by some on the right. Here is a list of some of the reforms that I advocate for:
Will the politicians finally find the courage to enact meaningful gun control legislation? I’m not optimistic. If the national sickness of gun violence isn’t curtailed (it will never be stopped completely), it will continue to weaken the moral fabric of our country. We can’t let that happen. The worse thing that we as citizens can do is to become numb to gun violence. We need to let our politicians at the state and federal levels know that enough is enough, and it is time to end the national nightmare of gun violence.  If you enjoy reading this type of commentary please subscribe to my blog and tell a friend. You will receive an email notification when new blogs are posted. The email will come from the site’s email: armchairamerican1776 @gmail.com.
Thanks, Armchair American
The 2021 tax filing season is coming to a close. So, it’s a good time to reflect on the most hated, but perhaps the most necessary federal agency, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). I am a volunteer income tax preparer for the AARP Foundation Tax-Aide program, and prepare dozens of tax returns each year for seniors and low-income families. I witness first hand the frustrations people have dealing with the IRS, and the complexities and anxieties of complying with the U.S. tax code. The IRS deserves some of the credit for its negative image. It has been used as a political weapon by unscrupulous lawmakers, and incompetence has prevented it from becoming an efficient, well-run 21st century organization. But Congress deserves much of the credit for the IRS’s failings, through increased mandates and years of underfunding.  Role of the IRS: The IRS is a bureau of the Department of the Treasury and is responsible for helping taxpayers understand and meet their tax obligations. Congress writes the tax laws, but it is up to the IRS to interpret, enact, and enforce these laws with integrity and fairness. This is not an easy lift, even in the best of times. The pandemic, staff shortages, and years of underfunding have made the work of the IRS even more difficult.  What the IRS Gets Right: The IRS is a giant collection agency. It collects over 95% of all revenue coming into the Federal Treasury, nearly $4 trillion per year. In 2020 the IRS spent just 35 cents for each $100 it collected; not a bad return on investment (https://www.irs.gov/about-irs/the-agency-its-mission-and-statutory-authority). The IRS is also very good at sending out tens of millions of refund checks each year. In 2020 and 2021, during the worst pandemic in over one hundred years, the IRS managed to send out hundreds of millions of stimulus payments to most Americans, while still performing its other obligations. But the pandemic placed other strains on the IRS. It was required to send out Advanced Child Tax Credits to millions of families and administer more than a dozen other COVID-relief programs. This has compounded the massive backlog at the IRS.  The IRS is Drowning in Paper: According to the National Taxpayer Advocate, Erin Collins, “Paper is the IRS’s Kryptonite, and the IRS is buried in it”. More than 90% of taxpayers file their taxes electronically. This represents a huge success for the IRS, but much more work needs to be done. Last year the IRS received more than 17 million paper returns from individuals, over 4 million amended returns in paper form, and millions more paper returns filed by businesses. Everyone of these paper returns must be keyed into a computer by an IRS employee. According to the National Taxpayer Advocate, last year there were transcription errors on about 22% of these returns. The end of the 2021 tax filing season is fast approaching and the IRS is still working on a backlog of nearly 15 million paper returns from 2020. This makes for a lot of unhappy taxpayers who have been waiting for more than a year for their tax refunds.  What Congress Needs to Do to Help the IRS:
 What the IRS Can Do to Help Itself:
 What Taxpayers Can Do to Help Themselves and the IRS:
The U.S. Government expects so much from the IRS but doesn’t give it the tools to function as an efficient 21st century organization. The Government heavily leaned on the IRS to implement many of its COVID relief programs while still performing its primary tasks. All this was done as COVID restrictions and funding shortfalls crippled IRS staffing levels. I have only scratched the surface of the challenges facing the IRS. The agency is dealing with millions of cases of tax refund fraud due to ID theft, it generates and responds to millions of pieces of correspondence each year, and participates in many outreach and educational programs.  No one wants an intrusive, burdensome IRS meddling into their financial lives. But for better or for worse, we need the IRS, and we need it to be run efficiently and administer the tax code fairly. We even need the IRS to step up enforcement, perform many more tax audits, and close the huge “tax gap” that goes uncollected each year. Yes folks, it’s time to show the IRS a little love, and remind our representatives in Congress that we expect them to do the same.
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AuthorThe Armchair American. 
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