Another First for Donald Trump. First Former President to be Arrested on Criminal Charges.

​Donald Trump was the first person without government or military service to be elected president of the United States. He was the first president to be impeached twice, and the first president to refuse to publicly concede defeat when he lost his re-election bid in 2020. Donald Trump was the first president in over 150 years not to attend his successors inauguration, and now he is the first former president to be indicted, booked and arraigned on criminal charges. That’s quite a record, and things are just starting to look interesting for Mr. Trump.

​Yesterday Donald Trump turned himself in at the criminal courthouse in lower Manhattan. He was then arrested, booked and arraigned on 34 criminal counts of falsifying business records. In the unsealed indictment we learned that each count involved the “intent to defraud and intent to commit another crime and aid and conceal the commission thereof, made and caused a false entry in the business records of an enterprise”.  The charges stem from hush-money payments made by Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential race. He has pleaded not guilty to the charges. 

The Statement of Facts, which accompanied the indictment, spells out the charges against Donald Trump in more detail. Here we learn why misdemeanor charges of falsifying business records are being bumped up to felony charges. The business records were falsified in order to conceal the following criminal conduct:

1. Violation of election laws.
2. Violation of tax laws.
3. Criminal conspiracy.

Response to Donald Trump’s Indictment and Arrest: The response to the news of Donald Trump’s criminal indictment and subsequent arraignment is not surprising. Everyone from Donald Trump’s lawyers to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy called it “political persecution”, a “blatant abuse of power from a DA focused on political vengeance”, and “an attempt to interfere in our Presidential election”. The Republican establishment rallied behind Donald Trump even before they knew what crimes he was being charged with.

For his part, Donald Trump had been preparing his supporters that an indictment was imminent. On his social media platform and at his rally in Waco Texas, the former president called on his supporters to “Protest, take our nation back!”, and warned of “death and destruction” if he faces criminal charges. In a questionable legal strategy, Donald Trump went so far as calling Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg a “degenerate psychopath”, among other things. If Donald Trump was trying to intimidate the District Attorney, it didn’t work.

After his arraignment in New York, Donald Trump flew back to Mar-a-Lago and delivered a prime-time campaign speech. The first line of his speech was “The only crime that I have committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it”. 

Is Donald Trump’s Arrest Good for our Democracy? Many congressional Democrats think so. They are calling for justice to be blind, and standing by the notion that no one is above the law, not even former presidents. I agree with this position, as do most Americans. Without respect for the rule of law our democracy would crumble. Justice Department policy shielded Donald Trump from criminal prosecution while he was president. Now that he is out of office, Donald Trump should be provided the same protections and sanctions that the laws provide to all citizens of this country.
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Donald Trump may have jumped into the 2024 presidential race early in an effort to shield himself from the several pending criminal cases that are plaguing him. This was a miscalculation on his part. It’s true that it is unprecedented for a former president to be indicted on criminal charges. But it is not true that presidents have never been held accountable for their actions once out of office. Bill Clinton lost his law license and paid a fine rather than face perjury charges once he left office. Richard Nixon would have certainly been indicted on obstruction of justice charges in the Watergate investigation if he hadn’t been pardoned by Gerald Ford after leaving office.   

​Short Term Implications of Donald Trump’s Arrest: Donald Trump’s base of supporters has certainly been energized, and his fund-raising apparatus has shifted into overdrive. Trump’s team raised over $4 million within 24 hours of the indictment being made public.

The indictment has thrown a wet blanket over Trump’s competition for the 2024 Republican nomination for president. Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Mike Pence have all come out in support of Donald Trump against what they perceive as partisan attacks. Trump’s support among conservative Republicans has never been higher, and it has just gotten a lot tougher for anyone to wrestle the Republican nomination for president away from him. 

​Long Term Implications of Donald Trump’s Arrest: The criminal charges that Donald Trump faces in New York will take months, if not years to play out. The extent of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s evidence against Trump will not be fully known until the case goes to trial.  The next scheduled hearing on the case is December 4, 2023.

If the case goes forward, it will certainly cast a gray cloud over the 2024 presidential election, making it difficult to see a path to victory for Donald Trump in a general election. In any case, the stage has already been set for claims of “another rigged election” by Donald Trump if he fails to win back the presidency. At his recent rally in Waco, Trump claimed that the criminal charges leveled against him are the result of “prosecutorial misconduct”, a new tool being used against him. He went on to say, “We must stop them and we must not allow them to go through another election where they have yet another tool in their tool kit.”

Donald Trump’s Legal Jeopardy: I don’t think that Donald Trump faces any real legal jeopardy in the New York criminal case. He certainly won’t do any jail time if he is convicted of any of the charges. The importance of the Manhattan District Attorney’s case against Donald Trump is that it sets a precedent for future cases. It will make it more likely that other prosecutors will bring criminal indictments against him in the more serious and consequential cases currently under investigation.

Federal prosecutors could bring charges of obstruction of an investigation related to Donald Trump’s handling and storage of classified government documents at Mar-a-Lago. Another federal investigation is underway to determine if Donald Trump unlawfully interfered with the certification of the 2020 election results, or attempted to stop the peaceful transfer of power. He is also under investigation in Georgia for possible election code violations. If all that wasn’t enough, Donald Trump is facing two defamation lawsuits in New York filed by E. Jean Carroll, who has accused him of rape. The first of these two cases will begin later this month.
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I wouldn’t want to be responsible for Donald Trump’s legal bills. Where the money comes from to pay for those bills will certainly be the subject of future investigations.  It will be a tricky balance not to run afoul of campaign finance laws.

​Donald Trump’s criminal indictment and subsequent arrest in New York is not a reason to celebrate. If the criminal charges he is accused of are credible, then he should be held accountable. No one is above the law, not even former presidents. Any charges leveled against Donald Trump will be viewed by his supporters as politically motivated. No surprise there. Donald Trump deserves his day in court and we need to allow the judicial process to play out. But I hope that long before that happens the Republican Party realizes that Donald Trump does not represent the values of its party or those of the United States. It is not good for our democracy when one of our major political parties is held hostage by the ego of one man.  

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Thanks,
Armchair American